After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.
In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:
Why returning customers are driving growth this fall
The strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behavior
How to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending power
What this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planning
If you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.
Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:
Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday
Read the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flow
Avoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks bad
Set hourly targets using the Prophit System models
Course-correct in real time to hit your daily goals
Whether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:
Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.
In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.
They’ll walk through:
If you’ve ever wondered how to turn missed forecasts into closed gaps — this episode is your blueprint.
Call or text the DTC Hotline: 866-DTC-2263 (866-382-2263)
Ask your burning eComm questions and we might answer them live on air.
Show Notes:
Whether you’re running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website.
https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctc
Explore the Prophit System:
The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your eCom questions.
In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”
They debate:
Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirely
How to design equity partnerships that actually reflect value
Why cloning someone else’s playbook rarely creates monopoly outcomes
The real incentives behind Meta’s “CPM psyop”
And why “growth is the CEO’s job” isn’t just a slogan—it’s an organizational design principle
This is a deep dive into how systems, incentives, and creativity intersect to drive (or stall) profit growth.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo
Head to https://www.portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand and it worked.
In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.
You’ll Learn
How a banker turned founder built Ondo from scratch
The product insight that made no-show socks work
What it takes to scale profitably in 2025
Lessons from COVID era growth to now
Subscribe for more real stories of founders building smarter, not just bigger.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.
Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-loading LTV to designing retention programs that fuel acquisition, this conversation shows how the best brands build for long-term profitability — not just quick wins.
You’ll learn:
Why most retention strategies fail before the first purchase
How to connect your acquisition data to lifecycle marketing
Real examples of how integrated retention drives profitability
The retention frameworks used inside CTC’s Global Accelerator program
If you’re a 7- or early-8-figure brand looking to increase repeat revenue, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Learn more about the Global Accelerator: commonthreadco.com/accelerator
In this episode of the podcast, Taylor and Luke take you inside the system Common Thread Collective has built to define what modern media management really looks like in 2025.
Media buying has evolved - incrementality, experimentation, MMM, and FP&A can’t live in silos anymore. Taylor and Luke break down how to turn these complex ideas into one cohesive, profit-first workflow that drives real business results.
You’ll learn:
Why data integrity is the foundation of profitable decision-making
How to set smarter budgets with the Spending Power Model
How to allocate across channels using incrementality benchmarks
How to operationalize measurement, testing, and optimization in one system
Why IRoAS > ROAS (and how to make that shift inside your team)
This is the exact system CTC uses to manage media for hundreds of DTC brands..
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Read the blog: https://commonthreadco.com/blogs/coachs-corner/building-useful-measurements-for-profitability
Stop guessing — start scaling.
In this episode of Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how one eight-figure brand completely rewrote its Q4 plan using the Profit System’s Spend Power Model and Creative Demand Model.
You’ll see exactly how reallocating ad spend, optimizing contribution margin, and forecasting creative volume can unlock immediate profit gains in the next 30 days — without guessing or overspending.
What you’ll learn:
How to identify overspending using the Spend Power Model
Why cutting ad spend can increase contribution margin
How to forecast creative volume with the Creative Demand Model
The immediate actions to take for Q4 profitability
How one brand uncovered $400K in incremental profit
Whether you’re planning your Q4 media budget or mapping your 2026 growth strategy, this episode gives you the playbook for winning with data, not intuition..
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands blow their Q4 creator budget on one thing: holiday only content. In this episode of thPodcast, Richard sits down with Adrianne, Director of Creator Content, to break down why that’s a mistake and what to do instead.
Learn CTC’s full framework for sourcing and scaling creator content that actually performs through Q4 and beyond. From building evergreen briefs to managing creator timelines, Adrianne walks through the exact checklist, examples, and ad structures her team uses to keep pipelines full, ads optimized, and budgets profitable.
What you’ll learn:
Why holiday focused UGC is a budget trap
How to build evergreen creator briefs that scale
The ideal timeline for sourcing, editing, and launching UGC in Q4
The one still image format that outperformed every video
How to repurpose creator content across Meta, TikTok, Pinterest & more
Show Notes:
As Q4 kicks off, one of the biggest levers brands can pull is their offer strategy. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy) and Taylor Holiday (CEO) break down how to design offers that maximize both new customer acquisition and retention during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.
They walk through insights from CTC’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday Offer Database—a collection of 679+ offers from top eComm brands—and explain how to tailor messaging across channels like paid social, email, and SMS.
You’ll learn:
Why BFCM is the biggest new customer acquisition moment of the year
How to balance broad sitewide discounts with segmented offers for VIPs or inventory clearance
The trade-offs between discount depth, inventory availability, and timing across the holiday season
Common pitfalls brands face (like over/under-spending and missing the true margin math)
Why transparency about your actual market position matters when setting offer expectations
If you want to build an offer strategy that actually maps to your numbers—and not just guesswork—this episode will get you there.
Show Notes:
Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.
Join over 15,000 merchants protecting their revenue with Chargeflow. Use our promo code CF30 and start saving money, time, and sanity today: https://app.chargeflow.io/auth/sign-in?utm_source=ctc+hotline%2C+podcast&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CTC+Hotline+%26+Chargeflow&utm_id=CTC+Hotline
Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
In this special episode, we share Taylor Holiday’s keynote from Stord’s Summit.
He unpacks the four eras of DTC—COVID’s boom, the lean “Ozempic era,” and what he calls the “Flow Era.” Drawing from CTC’s dataset, client stories, and industry benchmarks, Taylor explains why 2025 could mark the strongest period in DTC history.
You’ll learn:
Why the excess of capital and demand during COVID was both logical and unsustainable.
How the “Ozempic era” forced brands to get lean—and why that was necessary for survival.
The financial mechanics that quietly cap growth when brands self-fund.
How product-led growth, compelling stories, and supplier financing separate the winners.
Why natural selection in e-commerce has created a stronger species of brands ready for what’s next.
If you want a clear picture of how we got here—and why the brands that remain are better positioned than ever—this keynote is essential listening.
Show Notes:
Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?
Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call:
https://www.hireallstars.com/contact
Explore the Prophit System:
https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.
In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin dig into the Measurement Roadmap—CTC’s framework for deciding what to test, when to test it, and why it matters. They unpack why incrementality testing is so crucial, the massive swings it can reveal in platform reporting, and how brands can use repeated tests to progressively “shrink the error bars” around decision-making.
From Meta’s 20% under-reporting benchmark to surprising Amazon lift results, Taylor shares concrete examples of how measurement gaps can change behavior, creative strategy, and even channel prioritization. The conversation highlights a hard but liberating truth: marketers don’t need perfect certainty—they need enough clarity to make confident decisions anchored in contribution margin.
Show Notes:
Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call: https://www.hireallstars.com/contact
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
Most brands rush into new ad platforms before they’re ready. In this episode, Richard and Tony break down why channel expansion is less about “good or bad” and more about timing and fuel.
They revisit the core sequence—master Meta, then Google—before adding channels like Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. And they go deep on why CTC is bullish on AppLovin, the mobile gaming ad platform that’s driving genuinely incremental growth for select brands.
You’ll learn:
The prerequisites for channel expansion (creative system + incrementality measurement)
How AppLovin differs from Meta & Google—and why it’s working now
The scale opportunity CTC sees as the platform opens up Oct 1
Why CTC approaches channels as investments, not experiments
If you’ve nailed your core channels and want to know when (and how) to expand, this episode is your playbook.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
As Q4 approaches, creative demand becomes one of the biggest challenges for brands looking to scale efficiently. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy at CTC) sits down with Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy) to unpack CTC’s new Creative Demand Model—a framework that quantifies exactly how much creative output brands need in order to hit their revenue and spend goals.
They walk through real examples from CTC’s dataset, breaking down what separates the highest creative scores from the lowest, and why top brands are still producing hundreds of ads each month to sustain growth.
You’ll learn:
The five key metrics behind the Creative Demand Score (zero spend rate, ad concentration, ROAS degradation, spend degradation, and evergreen share).
How creative volume directly ties into forecasting models like spend and MER.
Why troubleshooting CTR or hook rate in isolation often misses the bigger picture.
Practical recommendations for balancing evergreen content, rapid testing, and scaling winning ads.
How creator-driven content and AI-enabled creative are making high-volume production more cost-effective.
If you’ve ever wondered whether your brand needs 20 ads—or 200—to compete in Q4, this episode provides the clarity and direction to plan with confidence.
Show Notes:
Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?
Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call:
https://www.hireallstars.com/contact
Explore the Prophit System:
Explore our Creator Content Packages: https://www.commonthreadco.com/pages/creative-production
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.
In this week’s episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin (VP of Ecommerce Strategy at CTC) sits down with Mike McVerry, SVP of Ecommerce & International Sales at Urban Armor Gear (UAG) to unpack how the brand unlocked 40% YoY revenue growth and 43% contribution margin growth in 2025 … despite a shrinking market.Together, they break down:- Why “spend more to grow more” wasn’t working for UAG- How the Profit System bridged the gap between finance and marketing- The role of contribution margin in setting smarter media budgets- Scaling creative volume nearly 4x year over year- How to break through a “glass ceiling” of growth with financial clarity- Lessons on inventory, marketing calendars, and collaboration that fueled profitabilityThis is a real-world case study in building sustainable DTC growth by aligning finance, marketing, and creative execution.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy?Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.comExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
In this special episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin takes the reins and brings in two of CTC’s top-performing growth strategists—Lacie Geary and Brian Sakansky—for a deep dive into what it takes to build and execute a forecast with precision.
You’ll get a rare look under the hood at CTC’s Profit System, including how we:
Set and execute daily client-level forecasts for revenue, spend, and contribution margin
Think about tradeoffs between efficiency vs. volume
Use planning tools like the Spend aMER Model, Day-of-Week Effect, and Creative Demand Model
Track forecast accuracy by strategist, with Lacie and Brian leading the way
Identify and respond to signals in real-time that influence media allocation
Use product-level reporting to guide decisions at the SKU and creative level
You’ll hear specific client examples from the home goods and apparel space, plus commentary on how inventory, product mix, and creator content factor into hitting (and sometimes beating) forecasted targets.
Show Notes:
Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo:
https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=CommonThreadCollective&utm_medium=comarketing&utm_term=podcast
Explore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com
Have a question for the podcast?Email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com
When should you really be spending more? Which days of the week drive the most revenue—for your brand?
In this episode, Richard is joined by Luke Austin (VP of Growth at Common Thread Collective) to walk through real client data and uncover just how different day-of-week and month-over-month effects can be across brands, even within the same vertical.
You’ll learn:
Why blindly scaling spend in Q4 might be a mistake
How day-of-week effects can swing revenue potential by over 30%
Why trying to “fix” bad days isn’t always worth it
What most brands miss when planning their BFCM budget
How to think like a portfolio manager when allocating ad spend
Whether you’re a home goods brand, fitness apparel company, or in personal care, Luke shows how the Spend <> aMER model can give you a quantifiable edge in media buying and forecasting.
Plus, learn why Fridays might be gold—or garbage—depending on your category.
Show Notes:
Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo: https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=CommonThreadCollective&utm_medium=comarketing&utm_term=podcast
Explore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com
Have a question for the podcast?
Email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com
In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dig deeper into the Spending Power Model—breaking down why the next dollar you spend doesn’t always produce the same return.
They explore concepts like the marginal frontier (the moment your next dollar becomes unprofitable), spending power, and how to balance short-term profitability with long-term growth. Taylor shows how to evaluate whether to optimize for revenue, contribution margin, or lifetime contribution—and why these decisions always tie back to your financial goals.
You’ll learn:
What the “marginal frontier” really means for your ad spend
Why not all dollars in create the same dollars out
How to use spending power as a scale metric for your brand
The tradeoffs between maximizing revenue vs. profitability
How this framework helps align boardroom strategy with media buying decisions
Show Notes:
Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo: https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=Com...
In place of this week's Tuesday ECPP episode, we're featuring CTC's newest podcast: The DTC Hotline.In this week’s episode of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined once again by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to field real questions from operators and listeners—offering hot takes, cold truths, and unfiltered answers.They tackle:- What to do when your historically strong Meta campaign suddenly stops working- The “3 Ps” framework—payment, policy, pixel—when diagnosing sharp performance drops- How to push back when brand standards block creative diversity- Whether top-of-funnel campaigns (like add-to-cart optimization) really work- The products and niches they’d actually pursue—or avoid—if starting an eComm brand todayThis is where your eCommerce questions get answered—practical, direct, and straight from the operators’ desk.Call or text us your question: 866-DTC-2263Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo: https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=CommonThreadCollective&utm_medium=comarketing&utm_term=podcastExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.com
In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models—powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork.
Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder.
You’ll learn:
• Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential
• How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS
• The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts
• How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative
• Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it’s about clarity and action
Show Notes:
- Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?
Check out AllStars.
Book Your Strategy Call https://www.hireallstars.com/contacthttps://calendly.com/amzallstars/discovery-call?month=2025-09
- Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
- The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
