In this episode Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool, and Shannon Phillips unpack the new federal budget. They discuss

• The economic outlook and why Canada avoided recession even as growth falls
• Why this is a capital assets budget and what it asks of private investment
• The new fiscal anchors and how markets are reacting
• The political risk of long runway payoffs and how to show near-term impact
• Immigration levels cuts the hit to campuses and minimum wage pressure
• Defence spending and whether dollars stay in the Canadian industrial base

Key Takeaways

On the economic outlook

• WOODFINDEN: A budget that leans heavily on uncertainty and the upending of the global order 
• MEREDITH Canada dodged a recession and the economy shows resilience even with weaker growth
• BOESSENKOOL Risks are still tilted to the downside and US trade turbulence could bite
• PHILLIPS This is industrial and capital focused not people focused which leaves exposure if the economy worsens

On what makes this budget different

• MEREDITH The document reads like a pension investor wrote it. Prioritizes asset class certainty and competitiveness over retail politics
• WOODFINDEN The government owns the productivity slump that predated Trump and is finally acknowledging it at least  
• BOESSENKOOL A Bay Street style budget that pivots from program expansion to private investment
• 
  

On immigration and provincial fallout

• WOODFINDEN The cut to international student permits is dramatic and will hit university and college finances
• MEREDITH Expect a tilt back to high skill intake while provinces scramble to fill revenue gaps
• PHILLIPS Lower intake will tighten low wage labour markets and push pressure onto minimum wage policy

On innovation and financial sector reform

• MEREDITH The budget packs major moves on competition banking and digital assets with more likely in the Bank Act review cycle

On defence

• WOODFINDEN Defence is the signature spend at eighty four billion over five years
• MEREDITH Procurement choices will decide how much of that spend stays in Canada
• PHILLIPS Recruitment and culture must improve or the money will not translate into people

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In this episode, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• Projects of national interest and how new polling reveals what Canadians really think about building faster while maintaining environmental and Indigenous safeguards
• Why Bill C-5 could reshape how Canada approves major infrastructure projects
• The shifting dynamics between Carney’s government, Conservative premiers, and public expectations around trade-offs, consultation, and speed
• Trump’s latest trade war escalation, what it means for Canada, the provinces, and global leverage
• Section 107 and the Notwithstanding Clause: how back-to-work powers are reshaping Canada’s labour relations landscape
• “Around the Horn” the key political, economic, and social developments to watch across Canada

Key Takeaways

On National Projects and Public Opinion

• PHILLIPS: Canadians want it all; environmental safeguards, Indigenous consultation, and faster approvals. “They want all of the things. That is a distinctly Canadian approach.”
• MEREDITH: The public is open to conditions, unionized labour, Indigenous participation, environmental offsets, not to bypassing them.
• WOODFINDEN: “If something extraordinary continues long enough, it becomes ordinary.” Carney’s mandate to move fast risks fading if delivery lags.
• PHILLIPS: “Politics are not fixed.” The ‘don’t know’ responses in polling reveal opportunity, or danger, for both sides of the national projects debate.

On C-5 and Industrial Strategy

• MEREDITH: C-5 gives Cabinet power to act as “traffic cop” coordinating approvals, Indigenous engagement, and environmental conditions, a new form of transactional nation-building.
• PHILLIPS: The bill could accelerate transmission lines, renewable energy projects, and AI infrastructure, “That’s where you’ll get Canadians at 70% support.”
• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives and Liberals may share short-term goals but differ fundamentally on regulatory reform, “A branding and messaging divide.”

On the U.S. Trade War and Federal–Provincial Tensions

• MEREDITH: Canada’s leverage works when used strategically, not bombastically, “Pain may need to be felt on the U.S. side first.”
• PHILLIPS: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” A strong, united Canada is better positioned to face Trump’s negotiating style.
• MEREDITH: Lack of communication between Ottawa, provinces, and business is fueling anxiety “We cannot manage our own agenda if we do not have a coordinated response.”

On Labour Relations and Section 107

• PHILLIPS: Alberta’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to end the teachers’ strike “opens a five-alarm fire” for labour rights across Canada.
• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives’ outreach to labour complicates future debates, “The dynamic in Parliament has changed more than people realize.”
• PHILLIPS: Expect deeper divides between approaches to public- and private-sector unions in conservative politics.

MBP Intelligence Roundtable is produced by Metamorphosis Media Group for Meredith, Boessenkool & Phillips (MBP) Intelligence.

Learn more or join the MBP membership for exclusive access to policy briefings and private roundtables at mbpintelligence.com.

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In this episode Ben Woodfinden is joined by Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith, and Shannon Phillips to discuss:

• The “teaser budget” and how Prime Minister Trudeau and Mark Carney are framing a transformational moment for Canada’s economy
• What the language of sacrifice and “transformation” really signals for Canadians and how it landed with students
• The political balancing act between fiscal discipline, industrial policy and trade diversification
• “Buy Canadian,” AI investment, and talent strategy as pillars of the new industrial vision
• Canada’s evolving housing landscape and the impact of Alberta’s municipal elections
• “Around the Hall”  the developments and signals to watch in the weeks ahead

Key Takeaways

On the Teaser Budget and Carney’s Framing

• MEREDITH: The decision to deliver a pre-budget address was about setting expectations, signalling a generational budget and framing the conversation before it lands.
• BOESSENKOOL: Carney is setting the bar extremely high, a “Paul Martin problem” of over-promising transformation before delivery.
• PHILLIPS: Doubling non-U.S. exports is a massive lift that would require a complete retooling of Canada’s economy.

On Sacrifice, Youth and Fiscal Balance

• MEREDITH: “Sacrifice” was framed as unity, a shared commitment to tough choices, but it also prepares Canadians for spending restraint in some areas.
• WOODFINDEN: The line landed awkwardly before university students who have seen house prices double and job prospects tighten, a telling communications moment.
• BOESSENKOOL: It was written for national media, not the room, a preview of the government’s tough-talk tone heading into budget day.

On Industrial Strategy and AI

• MEREDITH: Expect direction on AI sovereignty, data centres, cloud capacity and digital infrastructure, with details to follow after the budget.
• WOODFINDEN: Carney’s focus on critical minerals, AI, and education highlights Canada’s core comparative advantages.
• BOESSENKOOL: Expanding Canada Research Chairs to attract top global talent would be a small but strategic move with outsized impact.
• PHILLIPS: The speech underplayed existing wins like childcare and middle-class tax relief, missed chances to show tangible progress.

On Housing and Regional Reality

• BOESSENKOOL: Canada faces multiple regional crises, not one national problem, solutions must reflect local realities.
• MEREDITH: Roughly $50 billion in housing initiatives (Build Canada Homes, MERB, modular construction, DC cuts) are coming, the challenge is execution and coordination.
• PHILLIPS: Co-operative and mixed-model housing is absent from today’s debate, civil society needs to reclaim that space.

On Alberta’s Municipal Elections and Coordination

• PHILLIPS: Calgary’s new leadership opens space for fresh federal-municipal collaboration; there’s room for constructive reset.
• MEREDITH: Real housing progress depends on provincial alignment, that’s where the legal and policy levers sit.

On Parliament and Political Timing

• MEREDITH: Passing the budget is only step one, implementation and supply votes create multiple points of leverage in a minority Parliament.
• BOESSENKOOL: Minorities often last longer than expected, election threats are constant but rarely materialize.
• WOODFINDEN: Moving the budget to fall forces discipline and changes how opposition parties plan their moves.

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IIn this episode Ben Woodfinden and Shannon Phillips talk with National President of UNIFOR Lana Payne and discuss:

• Stellantis, subsidies and Trump Pressure 03:02:18
• Government Tools and Leverage 05:49:12
• On a Team Canada Strategy, and potential divergence between federal and provincial governments 10:36:15
• On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector 22:00:01
• On Labour Power and Policy 32:06:10
• Unifors Position and it’s members 42:20:10

Key Takeaways

On Stellantis, Subsidies and Trump Pressure

• PAYNE: This is the most blatant example of a corporation appeasing Trump. Canada must play hardball, enforce commitments negotiated in 2023, and make companies feel consequences when they move Canadian jobs.
• PAYNE: Failure to act risks a domino effect — if Stellantis escapes accountability, others like GM could follow.
• PHILLIPS: What matters now is not rhetoric but tools — what governments can actually do to make firms fulfill their obligations.

On Government Tools and Leverage

• PAYNE: Canada has powerful levers if it chooses to use them, beginning with a tariff-remission strategy that rewards companies meeting Canadian production commitments and penalizes those that don’t.
• PAYNE: If you’re going to sell here, you need to build here. Market access, energy supply, and public subsidies are all bargaining chips.
• PAYNE: Governments can no longer rely only on incentives. The world has changed — we must use sticks as well as carrots.

On a Team Canada Strategy

• PHILLIPS: The provinces, especially Ontario, have meaningful leverage; their willingness to act matters.
• WOODFINDEN: Emerging divergence between Ford and Carney that was not there a few months ago. Ford is fighting openly while Ottawa appears more cautious.
• PAYNE: Canada risks fragmentation as provinces pursue separate interests. We need a strong Team Canada approach uniting unions, industry, and all levels of government.
• PAYNE: Trump’s trade posture is an existential threat. He’s coming for our auto jobs.
• PAYNE: Need to think about and plan for long-term resilience. We can’t just export raw materials and help someone else build their economy — we must build our own industrial base.

On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector

• PAYNE: Before Trump’s trade war, Canada was finally rebuilding its footprint — battery plants, EV supply chains, and domestic R&D. U.S. backtracking threatens that progress.
• PAYNE: Warns that China’s massive overproduction of vehicles could soon flood the global market. Canada must plan now to compete.

On Labour Power and Policy

• PAYNE: Section 107 is a very dangerous path. It conditions employers to expect government rescue instead of bargaining fairly. Using 107 will not bring labour peace; it prolongs workplace problems.
• PHILLIPS: Government may need clearer guardrails before invoking 107.
• PAYNE: You don’t get to use 107 — that’s the starting point. Supports mediation and conciliation instead of forced arbitration.
• WOODFINDEN: Notes shifts in the political landscape as unionized and blue-collar voters move toward conservatives.

Shifting Political Coalitions and Realignments 

• PAYNE: Unifor stays non-partisan. We build our own power. Every party is chasing the working vote, which strengthens labour’s influence.
• PAYNE: The voter shift is about bread-and-butter issues — housing, wages, inflation — not ideology. People felt heard.

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In this episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• Changes to the timing and presentation of the upcoming Federal Budget (1:08)
• The latest in pipeline politics with Premier Danielle Smith proposing a new West Coast pipeline and the revival of Keystone XL talks (25:02)
• The state of Canada's auto sector and the existential threat it faces (41:10)
• What we’re paying attention to (51:56) 

Key takeaways:

On changes to the budget:

• MEREDITH: We learned something about Carney and how he operates from this move to the fall. Wasn't in the platform.
• MEREDITH: Carney was Governor of the Bank of England when the UK changed budget timing to the fall, not a coincidence.
• BOESSENKOOL: You're forecasting a budget six months in advance before it starts happening. So that's a benefit when you're spending, but it's downside when you're doing revenue.
• PHILLIPS: This will aid policy design and help stakeholders navigate budgets by clarifying upcoming allocations. With Carney's changes to the cabinet, stakeholders can now better align their requests with existing allocations.
• MEREDITH: Change is important because this is the first of many big steps this government is going to take where it departs from the Trudeau government. Carney government less focused on things like spending on social policy, transfers to people, transfers to governments that aren't actually about building assets. Stakeholders should think about this in social policy area.

On pipelines:

• PHILLIPS: A West Coast pipeline is unlikely to succeed unless supportive Indigenous nations along the route agree—constitutional treaty rights are a near‑insurmountable hurdle that C-5 cannot override. Prince Rupert is probably unrealistic, and overall demand uncertainty means such a project would likely require public backing.
• BOESSENKOOL: There’s a real question whether only governments can now build major pipelines given Indigenous and provincial veto points. Hypothetical pipeline talk should not distract investors from concrete projects that could attract real capital.
• MEREDITH: Provincial sponsorship of pipeline projects can be constructive and may vindicate past federal intervention, but meaningful progress requires BC’s buy‑in. Routing and negotiations will be protracted, and reuse or expansion of existing routes (for example, further using or adding capacity to Trans Mountain) is worth considering.
• WOODFINDEN: If Conservatives had won federally, they would likely have pursued repeal or major reform of laws that deter investment (C-69, the tanker ban), testing whether regulatory barriers rather than macro market conditions are the primary obstacle to pipeline investment.

On the auto sector:

• MEREDITH: The U.S. objective is explicit—shift vehicle assembly (high‑value jobs) to U.S. soil while allowing Canada to remain a parts supplier; Canada must defend its assembly capacity to preserve advanced manufacturing and national economic sovereignty.
• BOESSENKOOL: This is a very serious threat that requires a clear Canadian auto strategy and cautious negotiation—don’t rush into deals with Trump that could unravel later; Canada should fight rather than fold to protect jobs and exports.
• PHILLIPS: Losing large numbers of auto jobs would trigger wide economic fallout requiring a whole‑of‑government fiscal and policy response (comparable in scale to pandemic-era measures) to support affected workers, communities, and domestic demand.

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In the inaugural episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Director of MBP Intelligence Ben Woodfinden talks with Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips to get their insights into:

• The ongoing trade war, the return of Trump’s 51st state talk and the upcoming CUSMA renegotiations (1:38).
• The PBO’s fiscal warnings and the federal fiscal outlook in advance of the first Carney budget (14:45).
• The NDP leadership race, relevance and future direction (29:23). 
• Parliament’s return - what we’ve noticed and what to watch for (46:27).

Key takeaways:

On tariffs and trade: 

• Boessenkool: No one other than Trump himself knows what he’s thinking, policymakers need to show some humility and plan accordingly. Canada should plan for the worst and hope for the best, including the potential cancellation of CUSMA.
• Meredith: The government is pursuing a two-track trade strategy, addressing both existing tariffs and renegotiating CUSMA. Sectoral tariffs are increasing and the government is becoming less vocal and quiet in response, including less direct engagement with stakeholders. 
• Phillips: The provinces will increasingly play a role in tariff response due to the regional specific impacts of tariffs.

On PBO and Fiscal Outlook: 

• Meredith: It's likely true that the deficit will come in somewhere between 2-3 % of GDP, but according to PBO’s own analysis, we are still on a sustainable fiscal track. It’s important to note that the parliamentary budget officer is interim. It may explain some of his public pronouncements.
• Boessenkool: We don't need a government-funded body to tell us what the fiscal situation is. That's the job of the opposition to criticize and the job of the government to put forward a plan. Let the opposition do the hard work of opposing, don’t outsource it. 

On NDP:

• Phillips: The NDP leadership race boils down to a question of whether members want a leader who will prioritize making them feel good or one who will prioritize winning. McPherson is likely that person but she needs to distinguish herself, grab some of the attention in the attention economy and try and define herself as in the camp of provincial New Democrats who want to win, not just feel good.
• Woodfinden: Conservatives successfully stole many NDP working class votes at the last election, and so face a challenge now. They need a stronger NDP but they also need to keep those working class votes, which also means not wanting the return of an NDP that can appeal to those voters.

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