In this episode Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool, and Shannon Phillips unpack the new federal budget. They discuss

• The economic outlook and why Canada avoided recession even as growth falls
• Why this is a capital assets budget and what it asks of private investment
• The new fiscal anchors and how markets are reacting
• The political risk of long runway payoffs and how to show near-term impact
• Immigration levels cuts the hit to campuses and minimum wage pressure
• Defence spending and whether dollars stay in the Canadian industrial base

Key Takeaways

On the economic outlook

• WOODFINDEN: A budget that leans heavily on uncertainty and the upending of the global order 
• MEREDITH Canada dodged a recession and the economy shows resilience even with weaker growth
• BOESSENKOOL Risks are still tilted to the downside and US trade turbulence could bite
• PHILLIPS This is industrial and capital focused not people focused which leaves exposure if the economy worsens

On what makes this budget different

• MEREDITH The document reads like a pension investor wrote it. Prioritizes asset class certainty and competitiveness over retail politics
• WOODFINDEN The government owns the productivity slump that predated Trump and is finally acknowledging it at least  
• BOESSENKOOL A Bay Street style budget that pivots from program expansion to private investment
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On immigration and provincial fallout

• WOODFINDEN The cut to international student permits is dramatic and will hit university and college finances
• MEREDITH Expect a tilt back to high skill intake while provinces scramble to fill revenue gaps
• PHILLIPS Lower intake will tighten low wage labour markets and push pressure onto minimum wage policy

On innovation and financial sector reform

• MEREDITH The budget packs major moves on competition banking and digital assets with more likely in the Bank Act review cycle

On defence

• WOODFINDEN Defence is the signature spend at eighty four billion over five years
• MEREDITH Procurement choices will decide how much of that spend stays in Canada
• PHILLIPS Recruitment and culture must improve or the money will not translate into people

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