In the inaugural episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Director of MBP Intelligence Ben Woodfinden talks with Ken Boessenkool, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips to get their insights into:

• The ongoing trade war, the return of Trump’s 51st state talk and the upcoming CUSMA renegotiations (1:38).
• The PBO’s fiscal warnings and the federal fiscal outlook in advance of the first Carney budget (14:45).
• The NDP leadership race, relevance and future direction (29:23). 
• Parliament’s return - what we’ve noticed and what to watch for (46:27).

Key takeaways:

On tariffs and trade: 

• Boessenkool: No one other than Trump himself knows what he’s thinking, policymakers need to show some humility and plan accordingly. Canada should plan for the worst and hope for the best, including the potential cancellation of CUSMA.
• Meredith: The government is pursuing a two-track trade strategy, addressing both existing tariffs and renegotiating CUSMA. Sectoral tariffs are increasing and the government is becoming less vocal and quiet in response, including less direct engagement with stakeholders. 
• Phillips: The provinces will increasingly play a role in tariff response due to the regional specific impacts of tariffs.

On PBO and Fiscal Outlook: 

• Meredith: It's likely true that the deficit will come in somewhere between 2-3 % of GDP, but according to PBO’s own analysis, we are still on a sustainable fiscal track. It’s important to note that the parliamentary budget officer is interim. It may explain some of his public pronouncements.
• Boessenkool: We don't need a government-funded body to tell us what the fiscal situation is. That's the job of the opposition to criticize and the job of the government to put forward a plan. Let the opposition do the hard work of opposing, don’t outsource it. 

On NDP:

• Phillips: The NDP leadership race boils down to a question of whether members want a leader who will prioritize making them feel good or one who will prioritize winning. McPherson is likely that person but she needs to distinguish herself, grab some of the attention in the attention economy and try and define herself as in the camp of provincial New Democrats who want to win, not just feel good.
• Woodfinden: Conservatives successfully stole many NDP working class votes at the last election, and so face a challenge now. They need a stronger NDP but they also need to keep those working class votes, which also means not wanting the return of an NDP that can appeal to those voters.

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