The One Big Beautiful Bill is now signed into law, prompting questions about tax risks, retaliatory measures, and impacts on U.S. real estate. So what does it all mean for cross-border investors in property markets? AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with DLA Piper tax partner Shiukay Hung to discuss the impact of the bill. “The Big Beautiful Bill is a very interesting piece of legislation,” says Hung, “Perhaps it's one of the few tax legislations in recent memory that came with a lot of tax drama.” The bill, which aimed to maintain tax cuts, proposed a 50% retaliatory tax on foreign investors from countries with unfair tax practices, and could have significantly affected investment returns. Despite initial concerns, the retaliatory tax provision, Section 899, was dropped before passing. Now that the bill is law, how should cross-border investors weigh domestic tax exemptions against international treaties, and what role does the bond market play in shaping policy? It’s all in the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast. LINKS Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Read Shiukay’s paper on the Big Beautiful Bill https://www.dlapiper.com/en-ca/insights/publications/2025/06/litigation-funding-tax-and-retaliatory-tax Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202515cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:43 Welcome Shiukay Hung, Partner & Co-Chair, DLA Piper 01:51 Cross-border investor concerns 03:55 How big was the retaliatory tax threat? 06:26 What does the bill mean now? 08:31 Section 899 is gone, but the risk remains 11:45 What should investors be paying attention to? 13:45 Can the bond market keep us in check? 16:43 Who really influenced policy? 19:43 What investors are missing? 22:16 Final remarks

For the first time ever, New York City Economic Development Corporation is staging a special Investor Summit in collaboration with AFIRE for international institutional capital that's focused on US property investing. With the summit in mind, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with chief operating officer of NYCEDC, Melissa Román Burch, for a pulse check on New York City’s CRE environment. “New York City is an engine that is always thinking about growth,” says Burch. Currently, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has set a goal of creating 500,000 housing units over the next 10 years, with roughly 30,000 units expected to come from office-to-residential conversions. Meanwhile, two new trophy office skyscrapers have broken ground, totaling about 2 million square feet of new infrastructure. Looking ahead, the city projects 400,000 green-collar jobs by 2040, underscoring New York’s commitment to both economic growth and sustainability. The conversation covers the key sectors driving momentum—office, housing, energy, and transportation—while also asking the bigger questions: Where are the opportunities hiding? How will office-to-residential conversions reshape neighborhoods? And what will New York look like in five years? LINKS Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Learn more about NYCEDC’s Business Development team https://choose.nyc/ Register for AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit https://www.afire.org/uncategorized/amm25summitreg/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202514cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:23 Welcome back, Melissa Román Burch, COO of NYCEDC 01:48 AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit Invitation 03:37 Pulse check: what’s happening in NYC? 06:51 How is NYC handling housing shortages? 12:57 How much will NYC change in the next 5 years? 16:14 What’s most exciting for institutional investors? 19:46 Is NYC just a financial center? 23:45 Connecting Brooklyn to the mainland 28:31 How are people reacting to the congestion pricing system? 33:17 What’s happening with green energy? 37:11 What can investors expect in NYC over the next decade? 41:30 Final remarks

Geopolitics is rewriting the rules for commercial real estate investors. Can understanding history’s patterns be the key to figuring out what’s coming next? Who better to answer the question than Chair of War Studies at the U.S. Army War College, Michael Neiberg, who uses his expertise of Europe and the U.S. from 1914-1945 to offer valuable insights into today’s global challenges by drawing parallels with the early 20th century. “What we're dealing with now is not the same as other time periods,” Neiberg explains when discussing some of the economic parallels of the 1930s, which can “lead you down some pretty terrifying places, if you let them.” Instead, Neiberg shares some comforting news: “We are in some ways reverting to the norm.” This episode of the AFIRE podcast helps investors and strategists rethink their approaches amid a world that’s far less predictable than it once was. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. LINKS Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/ Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLO…DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:23 Meet Michael Neiberg, Chair of War Studies, US Army War College 02:23 How does today’s pullback compare to the 20th century? 05:52 How should investors handle less free global trade? 09:13 How have politics and economics connected? 11:38 Important lessons from early 20th-century tech 12:59 How is governance changing? 15:45 Does history show that communication is key?

We’ve entered a new era of geopolitics. From globalization and free trade stabilized by American soft power, we’re now in a more transactional period characterized by nation states weaponizing their economies with tariffs, a global leadership vacuum and greater competition among the superpowers. So should this affect cross-border investment strategies? And can earlier periods in history teach us lessons about what to expect in future? Yes to both, says Jonathan Boff, who may be the perfect person to turn for guidance. Boff has a CV that straddles the domains of business and history, as a former investment banker who is now a professor of military history at the University of Birmingham. “My instinct is that we need to be aware of over-catastrophizing too soon,” says Boff in conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. Boff suggests looking for lessons in the period immediately after the First World War, when the world transitioned from global free trade to another era of tariffs and trade barriers. In addition, Boff and Branson discuss the dangers represented by a weaker, more politically-beholden Federal Reserve, the need for more positive economic strategies; and the ways investors can prepare for highly unpredictable global events. LINKS Jonathan Boff’s book, Haig’s Enemy: Crown Prince Rupprecht and Germany’s War on the Western Front https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=9780199670475&i=stripbooks&linkCode=qs Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey https://www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/ Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 00:53 Meet Jonathan Boff, Professor of Military History, University of Birmingham 01:46 What should investors focus on amid global conflicts? 05:11 How do we connect politics and global economic interests? 15:34 What can we expect from US-implemented tariffs? 20:38 What should investors know about unpredictable international markets? 26:35 How should investors go about trusting the Fed? 32:43 What most get wrong about military conflicts’ economic impact

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions, the US economy remains strong, says our latest guest on the AFIRE podcast: Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi, the recipient of the Consensus Economics 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award. “So far, the data shows yellow flares everywhere,” Zandi observes. “But no red flares yet.” In conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, Zandi shares his views on the way trade tensions will affect the broader economy, as well as US commercial real estate specifically. The pair also discuss a forthcoming Moody’s study on the housing shortage, hotspots in the US CRE market and how ESG and DEI discussions are evolving under the new administration. The conversation concludes with Zandi worrying that the dissolution of Fed independence could set the stage for much higher inflation. “I do think the economy is resilient,” Zandi says. “We should be able to navigate through and, you know, we could be in a very different place a year or two down the road.” Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202511cast/

The US needs nearly 4 million homes. That’s a deficit that’s been decades in the making. Years’ worth of zoning restriction pile-ups, underbuilding, and policy interference have hindered the ability to plan, build, and maintain affordable homes across America. “We're putting requirements in place before we have the foundational infrastructure in place to provide it,” says CEO of Up for Growth Mike Kingsella during the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast. At the same time, the country’s energy infrastructure is straining to keep pace, not only with the increased demand in data centers to fuel AI, but also to supply energy at home. So to solve the affordability and energy problem, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson and Kingsella discuss how to untangle the legacy decisions that got the U.S. where it is in housing, and how to prevent the same pattern in energy.

Neville Rhone, Jr. is the co-founder and managing partner at Arc Capital Partners, a leading institutional real estate owner and investment manager. Arc is focussed on converting mixed-use properties instead of tearing down and building new. Rhone also is someone who’s poised to find opportunities in challenging environments. So where are these opportunities hiding? ”Everything that we do is in the middle market,” says Rhone, who goes on to explain that the middle market is often overlooked. “Blackstone is not paying attention to it; Brookfield is not paying attention to it.” The middle market often is “too complicated for the smaller investors,” so they also miss out on great opportunities. In Neville Rhone, Jr.’s compelling conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson, the two men discuss where the best investment opportunities are hiding in 2025—and why a fresh perspective on investments in this upcoming cycle is so beneficial. Key Moments 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro. 01:02 Branson introduces Neville Rhone, Jr. Managing Partner at Arc Capital Partners 02:12 Where are the best opportunities for attainable housing? 06:12 How does Arc approach infill urban areas and create more attainable market-rate housing? 11:07 How does Arc encourage thinking about unconventional investment opportunities in a challenging environment? 15:42 How does Rhone help investors understand that this middle-market approach is a wise, risk-adjusted approach? 26:24 Why should building owners care about sustainability in their investment approach? 29:43 Where are the opportunities hiding in 2025?

Brian Klinksiek thinks we’re turning a page to a new market in 2025. “Even with what’s happened with long interest rates, there’s so much other stuff,” says Klinksiek, the global head of research and strategy at LaSalle Investment Management. “We’ve got prices more in line with where bond markets are… we have valuations that have caught up with prices, the denominator effect that is resolved, you’ve got property market fundamentals improving for the beat-up sectors.” The new market makes real estate investing more complex, according to Klinksiek. The task in 2025 involves selecting from a more extensive breakfast menu of options, similar to that of a New York diner—so-called, Klinksiek says, because while there’s a lot of choice, some of them are a little dodgy, and you certainly don’t want all of them. Making the correct selections on where to invest is more difficult when more sectors are returning to investability. Take office, Klinksiek says. During the pandemic, the link broke down between office-using job creation and occupied square footage. “And what we see now is the beginning of it starting to reassert itself—the link is coming back.” Which means that Klinksiek expects people returning to office “will start to eat away at the mound of vacancies” in 2025. He also likes data centers in the short term, although he believes that innovation will limit the sector’s growth at some point in future. Listen or watch the episode on your favorite platform at: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202508cast/ Key Moments 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:24 How should investors approach CRE trends in 2025? 05:02 Will office surprise investors in 2025? 08:52 Will data centres continue to be the star player in CRE in 2025 despite scarcity?

The next five years are expected to bring groundbreaking tech advancements in augmented (AR) and virtual (VR) reality. Real estate—a traditionally unhurried adopter of new tech—isn’t immune to this shift, and while this could bring about new revenue streams for property owners, it also creates potential liabilities. Are real estate owners prepared? To learn the answer, we consulted with Neil Mandt. In addition to being a speaker at the AFIRE Winter Conference, Mandt is a five-time Emmy winner and the founder & CEO of Digital Rights Management, a tech platform offering property owners risk analysis and licensing opportunities from digital media companies. Mandt warns real estate owners to start thinking about securing the digital rights of their property. "Buildings are not the only real estate in the world," Mandt says on this episode of the AFIRE podcast, signalling the approach of a new age for property owners as augmented and virtual reality applications become more prevalent through society. AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with Neil Mandt to discuss digital media rights licensing and what that could mean for real estate owners and investors.

In 2024 commercial real estate investors were confronted with tremendous changes. What’s the biggest change that will surprise us in 2025—and how should the investment community adjust to those changes? That’s just one of the topics we tackle in the latest episode of our podcast series talking with commercial real estate experts about the year ahead. Jim Costello is the Chief Economist for MSCI Real Assets—and someone who always has a measured and data-driven forecast of what’s going to happen in the US real estate market, especially as it pertains to cross-border investment. “If people are not taking a dispassionate point of view…and taking a full look at the range of potential changes, they’re going to be shocked and surprised,” explains Costello. How will the new administration’s policies affect trade? Tariffs? Tax policies? Will they decrease regulatory burdens? And how will that affect inflation? “Those are real concerns,” says Costello. “But any policy change can cut two ways… there are other things that other types of investors are excited about”—and both Branson and Costello describe them in detail in this special mini-episode of the AFIRE podcast. Other themes: What are the surprising bets Jim Costello would make in 2025? Why office could surprise us in the year ahead How will migration patterns change in the US in 2025?

Contrary to reports of the death of office, demand for certain classes of office space is coming back so strong that New York City developers are struggling to meet the demand. Melissa Román Burch is New York City Economic Development Corporation’s Chief Operating Officer, and says, “Office is making a comeback. We fundamentally do not have enough class A and A+ office space in New York City, and we have too much class B and C.” In fact, Burch says New York currently has 2.4 million square feet of office space under construction that will be delivered by 2026—and almost 80% of that space already is spoken for. “So, what we’re going to see really unlock for New York City in 2025 is continued investment into modernizing office space and delivering new,” explains Burch. “We need to do this because we know that New York City will continue to be powered by a very strong economy, excellent job growth, and a global center for work.” Other themes: - How sustainability plays a part in office resurgence - What class A and A+ buildings will look like in 2025 - How class A and A+ buildings attract different usage patterns - How office can drive investor interest in underserved areas Watch the video or listen to the audio episode for answers.

How will we get out of the problems in the office sector in the US? How will we solve the housing crisis? Will we see an escalating environment of global trade tensions getting in the way of cross-border investing? What do you do if you can’t count on dropping interest rates? Spencer Levy is the global client strategist and senior economic advisor at CBRE—and someone who’s never afraid to tell you what he thinks. In the latest mini-episode to post in our series about commercial real estate in 2025, he answers these questions and more. “I think the big thing is that for the last ten years, a lot of people in our business did a lot of successful, profitable deals because cap rates were compressing,” Levy says. “Cap rates have now expanded… so next year, and probably for the next several years, we’re going to see who are the really good real estate operators.” Other themes: - Why it’s going to be more of a sub-sub-market selection game - Why office will surprise us in 2025 - Why appraisers and regulators need more love in 2025 Watch the video or listen to the audio episode for answers.

We left 2024 expecting surprises from political change and geopolitical shifts. But according to Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield, the actual surprise in store during the year ahead may be how little things change. For example, some anticipate a widespread sell off of distressed commercial real estate assets in 2025. But Rockey believes the pace will be much slower than many expect. Rather than a cliff event, she predicts a slow burn that continues well into 2026 and perhaps even into 2027. “I don’t think we will have a shortage of surprises out of DC,” says Rockey, who lives in the area. “But I think there are forces in motion that are going to play out next year, regardless of what’s happening in the policy environment.” “…specifically around the capital markets, which are a defining feature of this cycle for commercial real estate. We’ve clearly gone through some repricing, we’ve seen capital sources start to shift around in response to that, and as we move forward this year those shifts in capital sources will continue to play out—and I think those changes will be much more prolonged than just 2025.” Other themes: What shifts does Rockey expect in the capital markets? Will distressed deals tick up in the year ahead—and by how much? Where the best opportunities are hiding in 2025? Watch the video or listen to the audio episode for answers.

Our special New Year series provides themes to monitor in the year ahead for commercial real estate investors. This episode of the AFIRE Podcast features R. Byron Carlock Jr., PWC’s former US real estate leader and AFIRE’s current director of legal and tax, discussing the most important investment to make in 2025. AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson asks Carlock: You can make one bet in 2025—what is that investment you’ll make this year? What is it that commercial real estate investors need to worry about in 2025? Will 2025 be the year that regulators grow more comfortable with density in our cities? How should investors be thinking about the next five to ten years? Who will be the leaders in real estate investing over the next 10 years? What do you hope will happen for our built environments in 2025? As we look out at the year ahead—should we expect more surprises from the capital markets? What about politics? Geopolitics? Will we see more friction for cross-border investing—or less? Watch the video or listen to the audio episode for answers.

What are the markets that commercial real estate investors are focused on in 2025? Will markets even matter this year? And which markets are best positioned to outperform? Sabrina Unger is the managing director and the head of research and strategy at American Realty Advisors—and one of the people AFIRE turns to for nuanced commentary on what’s really going on in commercial real estate. “Market selection as a driver of relative over- or under-performance may actually be reduced relative to some of the other levers that we have to pull when it comes to making geographic selection within a sector,” says Unger. “When we look back over history . . . the dispersion between the best and worst multifamily markets—that dispersion is the widest during periods of adjustment.” So, Unger says, dispersions were widest during the 2008 global financial crisis, the supply surge in 2016 and during the pandemic. “But outside these periods, market fundamentals… tend to cluster much closer together.” Consequently, the market narrative may actually be disguising really strong sub-market opportunities. Which is why her team has implemented a new sub-market targeting strategy. Or, in her words, “There’s a way to take advantage of that arbitrage.”

A recent report from Cushman & Wakefield suggests that “urban doom loops” can be halted and reversed when investors, developers, and planners optimize the built environment for a balance of “live, work, and play” design suited to modern (and continually evolving) social tastes. https://www.afire.org/podcast/202413cast/ In this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting for Cushman & Wakefield joins AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson to discuss the report’s key findings. The report, “Reimagining Cities: Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop,” shows that an average US downtown has about 70% of its real estate devoted to work purposes. But the optimal pie chart for walkable urban places (WalkUPs) is far more mixed, with work environments accounting for just 42% of real estate, while 31% is for live purposes and 26% for play. Consequently, in this fascinating conversation focused on the reinvigoration of American cities after the pandemic, Rockey suggests that downtowns seeking to counteract the doom loop decrease the proportion of “work” and increase the amount of real estate devoted to live and play purposes – and that investors, developers, and planners can lead the charge.

Many of the challenges facing the US real estate market mirror those seen in the Asia-Pacific region. https://www.afire.org/podcast/202412cast/ So as investors are planning for the rest of the year, it’s the perfect time to speak with Simon Treacy of Singapore’s CapitaLand Investment, which manages properties in more than 40 countries. Treacy is the CEO of CapitaLand’s Private Equity Real Estate, Real Assets division, and says “The world is pretty much synchronized now. The same discussions you’re having in the US—we’re having in most markets around Asia.” On tap: What are Treacy’s predictions for the rest of 2024? What’s in store for valuations? How will changing interest rates affect global property markets? And are we finally going to see a breakthrough from a sluggish market to something that’s a little more active? Plus: Lessons for the US market from an Asian perspective. “We are starting to see [that] we’re coming towards the end game of the interest rate cycle,” Treacy says. “And as a consequence of that, we’re just starting to see transactions click up a little bit more.”

How can affordable housing become a reality in cities like New York, whose current blueprint and zoning regulation is not easily suited to modern market-rate and affordable housing development? https://www.afire.org/podcast/202411cast/ In our latest episode of the AFIRE podcast, CEO and host Gunnar Branson speaks with David Kramer, president of the Hudson Companies, a leading developer in NYC, about what it takes to build affordable housing in a city made for anything but. It’s a wide-ranging, entertaining conversation about the challenges of living and developing real estate in one of the most vibrant cities in the world—and America’s key “gateway” city. Kramer and Branson explore the tension between developer’s public profiles, and the realities of trying to build new projects in a sustainable way, while also nurturing a city that is hospitable to people from all walks of life. Kramer also takes down the common misconception that landlords determine rents. In fact, Kramer says that achieving housing affordability starts with increasing the number of units in a given market. “The solution . . . should not be chastising landlords and trying to limit rent increases—it should be increasing the supply.” With decades-worth of insider perspective and a whole host of entertaining analogies, Kramer’s interview provides a portrait of a New York developer doing his best to contribute to a city where people love to be—and what other cities can learn from this approach.

Forecasters are predicting another record-hot summer in North America. What’s hard to predict, though, is how environmental disasters will affect the real estate market around the country. https://www.afire.org/podcast/202409cast/ Intense hurricanes, droughts and untamable wildfires are all playing roles in the increase of premiums—bringing insurance to the forefront of real estate investing like never before. …which is why we’re talking now, in the latest episode of the AFIRE Podcast, with president and general counsel of EDGE Fund Advisors, Tiffany Sanders. The firm had owned their 1.1 million square foot building in downtown Manhattan for five months before Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on New York City in 2013, with tenants that included a major bank and two media companies. “[The property] was supposed to be a low-maintenance dividend-producing machine,” she explains. What followed Hurricane Sandy was a long and arduous process of recovering from the storm’s aftermath—pumping out water from the building, replacing electrical equipment that had been fully submerged, and repairing damaged interiors. “You can’t turn that stuff back on,” Sanders recalls. “You have to rebuild it.” For Sanders, the process yielded a better understanding of navigating insurance costs, preparing for the worst, and averting crises—all of which are things other investors may want to consider as we enter uncharted territory this summer. “We underestimate our vulnerability and we overestimate our readiness,” Sanders says. After four years and $10M in flooding restoration, Sanders recounts her experience dealing with an environmental disaster and redesigning the building to keep tenants afloat post-storm. She also shares what she says other building owners should know about planning for climate disasters in the years ahead.

Melissa Román Burch is New York City Economic Development Corporation’s chief operating officer—and one of the speakers at the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting in New York City this September. https://www.afire.org/podcast/202408cast/ She says the five boroughs are home to more than a million buildings and unprecedented employment growth, with more private sector jobs than ever before. But the city’s housing crisis threatens to limit economic development. “For more than 40 years, job growth has outpaced housing growth,” Burch tells host Gunnar Branson, AFIRE CEO. “This is a multi-decade problem… that has reached an inflection point.” Rental-unit vacancy rate is down to a historic low, around 1.4%, she says, while at the same time, the office sector faces occupancy challenges, with more than 100 million square feet sitting empty. To address the housing crisis, the city has unveiled a housing moonshot—a goal to build 500,000 new units over the next decade, about double the typical rate of supply. Exactly how the city will go about achieving that, on some of the most expensive real estate in the world, is topic number one in our latest podcast episode, now streaming on all podcast platforms.