Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerk
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months
0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest
1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows
3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations
3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment
6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility
7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"
10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet
13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles
15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis
17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management
18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats
21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics
24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention
26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies
27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles
31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight
32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility
36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets
1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top
3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning
6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed
8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions
11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead
14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029
17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions
18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy
20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt
22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script
25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence
29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022
31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead
33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052
35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI
39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show
41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening
44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization
46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation
50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance
0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis
1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut
2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint
2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point
4:17 Monetary Metals ad read
5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top
6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class
7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months
9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater
10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis
13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels
15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury
18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out
19:54 Taking profits
22:36 Watching the herd mentality
25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead
27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors
31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion
33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling
34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency
36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC
0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction
2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity
3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector
5:43 Monetary Metals ad read
6:43 Double dip recession call - started Q2 2024
8:53 Jobs typo in North Carolina data - continuing claims actually rose
11:14 Top 10% now account for 49% of consumption
12:21 Double dip recession explained - historical 1980-81 parallel
14:31 1.4 million full-time jobs lost since January
16:08 CEOs investing in AI to cut workers, not add jobs
17:20 Fed's dual mandate doesn't make sense - inherently conflicting
20:16 The Fed put is dead - new book thesis
23:02 Zero bound means boomers sell stocks - passive never stress tested
27:24 Fed structure needs reform - too many PhDs, need practitioners
29:01 Lehman anniversary - Fed violated law with MBS purchases
31:42 Private markets are new fault line - leverage unknown
32:32 Final thoughts - give peace a chance, listen to each other
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance
0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along
2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam
5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains
8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations
10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds
12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"
15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris
18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession
19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate
20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming
23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns
24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies
26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component
27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom
28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels
Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets.
Sponsored by Monetary Metals.
https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns.
With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.
He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.
Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive
2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks
3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows
4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating
6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years
9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios
10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates
12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening
13:28 Jobs report
14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage
15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading
18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out
19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages
22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money
26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies
29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies
31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline
33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity
36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers
37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think
39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential
Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.
https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody
X: https://x.com/m3_melody
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/
Timestamps
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show
1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons
3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives
5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking
7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore
9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors
12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved
13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct
15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 2035
17:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers
19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates
20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation
22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency
23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending
23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"
24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed
26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly
28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/
https://x.com/WarrenPies
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction
1:18 Big picture framework
5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era
8:00 Fiscal dominance
10:49 Jackson Hole speech
12:18 Labor market loosening
16:06 Immigration impact
17:31 Inflation stickiness
21:44 Widening perception gap in macro
26:23 Housing market outlook
30:07 Equity positioning
32:35 Bond allocation
35:36 Gold outlook
37:06 Bitcoin allocation
38:28 AI optimism
42:45 Closing remarks
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch
0:00 Welcome and introduction
0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September
1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued
3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises
6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently
8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth
10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time
11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth
12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation
15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income
16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income
17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day
20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts
22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants
24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event
26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones
Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned
3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling
6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate
11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach
12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher
17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates
21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname
22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse
26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics
28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index
32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks
34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside
35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have
38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions
41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarization
Links:
https://x.com/PeterGrandich
https://petergrandich.com/
https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Mirren, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen
1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations
3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September
5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Mirren and radical reforms coming
7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics
8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog
9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset
11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%
14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data
16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system
18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead
20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani
22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain
24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did
26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4
31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028
34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x
36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode
Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show
1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down
7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first
13:37 Monetary Metals ad read
15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires
18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America
23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when?
24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility
28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies
32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty
36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't"
38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates
41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset"
45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventually
Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com
Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services inflation may rebound as consumer sentiment improves. Drawing on White House experience during the 2019 trade war, Wong argues tariff uncertainty damages the economy more than tariffs themselves. She warns we may already be in recession and expects Fed rate cuts delayed until December.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:https://x.com/AnnaEconomist
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics
1:05 Big picture economy - last Friday's payroll flipped everything upside down
2:58 Forward looking indicators suggest investment picking up in second half
4:06 Massive jobs revisions - 35,000 three-month hiring trend
6:20 Are the revisions a fluke or signal of real weakness?
9:53 Three sectors driving downward revisions - construction, leisure, logistics
11:26 Non-farm payrolls as most market-moving economic indicator
14:05 Why employment data is so error-prone - birth-death model problems
16:48 Monetary Metals ad read
18:00 How Friday's report impacts Fed September meeting prospects
20:00 Fed forecasting - 80% effort on inflation and jobs data
21:18 12 million prices project tracking tariff pass-through
25:00 Services inflation vs tariff impact - the real story
30:00 Top 20% income earners driving swing consumption
32:32 Fed outlook - rate cuts likely delayed until December
34:34 White House experience in 2019-2020 - lessons on tariffs and travel bans
40:00 Markets driven by TACO and FOMO - set for huge volatility
41:02 What keeps Anna up at night - are we already in recession?
43:23 Optimism on tariff narrative shifting and uncertainty resolution
45:00 AI concerns - people in their 20s dropping from labor force
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction
1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 1993
3:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 1996
6:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters
8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making
9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell
10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard
13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves
15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy
16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%
17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 2024
19:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down
20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%
21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less
22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality
Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 276 where he provides an assessment of America's financial predicament, arguing that 30 years of Federal Reserve easy money policies have created damage to the economy and society. He explains how the Treasury is attempting to manage the $36 trillion debt crisis by rolling financing to the short end of the curve while allowing banks to increase leverage ratios, creating demand for government bonds. Fleckenstein believes market analysis no longer applies due to the dominance of passive flows, making shorting ineffective and valuations meaningless. He's holding more cash than ever in his investment career and warns that we're past the point of no return financially. Beyond economics, he's concerned about wealth bifurcation driving younger generations toward financial gambling or socialism, eroding American society's fabric.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap
Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Bill returns to the show
0:56 Big picture macro view - uncertainty and Trump volatility
4:55 Bond market games - rolling debt to short end of curve
7:39 Investment strategy - holding more cash than ever
10:22 Why shorting doesn't work anymore - the passive bid problem
11:46 Passive flows and employment concerns for young graduates
14:25 Understanding the passive bid - why it matters for all ages
18:37 Fed critique - 30 years of destructive easy money policies
22:49 Mission creep and arrogance at the Federal Reserve
25:57 Bond market story - financing games and bank leverage
29:04 Is this the right policy approach? No good options left
34:24 Are we in a Fed-induced bubble? The "everything bubble"
36:45 Can the Fed control inflation? Lessons from the gold standard
40:24 Could we return to sound money? Past the point of no return
44:20 The math doesn't work - why we're too late
47:01 What keeps Bill up at night - societal breakdown and wealth bifurcation
50:09 Optimism in human ingenuity despite challenges
51:10 Quick take on gold - the one financial antidote
Nick Maggiulli, COO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "The Wealth Ladder," presents his data-driven framework for understanding wealth progression. He explains his six-level wealth ladder system (from under $10K to over $100M) and introduces the 0.01% spending rule for lifestyle decisions. Maggiulli emphasizes focusing on controllable factors rather than macro predictions, shares his personal journey from working-class background to level four wealth through consistent content creation, and discusses why different strategies are needed at each wealth level. He advocates for the "just keep buying" approach for level three investors while acknowledging that business ownership becomes necessary to reach level five.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
The Wealth Ladder: https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Ladder-Proven-Strategies-Financial/dp/0593854039/
X: https://x.com/dollarsanddata
Of Dollars and Data: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Nick's return to the show
1:19 Big picture outlook - focusing on individual control vs macro
3:14 Death of the Amex lounge - rise of the upper middle class
7:21 The wealth ladder framework - six levels explained
10:06 Spending framework - the 0.01% rule
13:03 Income vs wealth-based spending decisions
17:11 Nick's personal journey through the wealth levels
19:37 Building through content creation and consistency
23:22 Stanford experience and class differences
26:07 Progressing from level three to four - just keep buying
28:41 The book as guide and warning - when is enough enough?
30:20 Money and happiness - the logarithmic relationship
32:44 Just keep buying framework at all-time highs
36:45 Why Nick owns Bitcoin - the 5% allocation
40:39 Final thoughts - importance of income across wealth levels
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes
0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg
0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model
3:29 Titanic moment explained
6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)
8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment
9:30 Market signposts to watch
11:21 Post blow-off top scenario
14:30 How sharp will the decline be?
18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds
18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem
23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors
26:21 Fed credibility problems
29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC
31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?
33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns
37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk
40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative
42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis
48:13 How to protect yourself
51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/
00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report
00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions
02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency
04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario
06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up
08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes
09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance
11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries
13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries
16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds
17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation
18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions
19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years
21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners
24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt
25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace"
26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome
26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden
28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities
30:00 Closing remarks
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen
00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare
02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits
04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates
06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit
09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents
11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals
13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics
14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits
16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default
19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell
20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand
22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests
24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset
25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion
27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries
29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists
32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes
35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill
Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss her outlook on a bifurcated economy where 52% of households are entering their second recession since COVID stimulus ended, while high-end consumers continue driving economic growth.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:54 Macro outlook and consumer segmentation
2:37 Recession expectations for Main Street
4:19 Market distortions and wealth effects
4:51 Dollar stores as economic indicator
6:17 Dollar store vs Walmart consumer dynamics
7:57 Trading down narrative discussion
8:26 Segmented recession clarification
8:54 Housing market outlook
9:23 Worst housing market in decades
11:12 Senior demographics and aging in place
12:32 First-time homebuyer challenges
14:25 Housing bubble discussion
15:29 Avocado toast generation (24-38 age group)
17:09 Experiential spending and lifestyle patterns
19:53 Nation's fiscal picture and debt concerns
22:44 Interest rates and Treasury market risks
24:31 Fed's impossible situation with stagflation
25:42 Rate cut predictions
27:04 Underappreciated risks and Treasury concerns
28:30 Home equity as "get out of jail free card"
30:15 Where to find Meredith's work and closing thoughts
