Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance
0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along
2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam
5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains
8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations
10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds
12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"
15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris
18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession
19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate
20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming
23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns
24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies
26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component
27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom
28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels
