Last month, some of the world’s leading artificial intelligence experts signed a petition calling for a prohibition on developing superintelligent AI until it is safe. One of those experts was Dan Hendrycks, director for the Center for AI Safety and an adviser to Elon Musk’s xAI and leading firm Scale AI. Dan has led original and thought-provoking research including into the risk of rogue AIs escaping human control, the deliberate misuse of the technology by malign actors, and the emergence of dangerous strategic dynamics if one nation creates superintelligence, prompting fears among rival nations.
In the lead-up to ASPI’s Sydney Dialogue tech and security conference in December, Dan talks about the different risks AI poses, the possibility that AI develops its own goals and values, the concept of recursion in which machines build smarter machines, definitions of artificial “general” intelligence, the shortcomings of current AIs and the inadequacy of historical analogies such as nuclear weapons in understanding risks from superintelligence.
To see some of the research discussed in today’s episode, visit the Center for AI Safety’s website here.
Russia has more than 100 times the population of its neighbour Estonia, yet the small Baltic nation has played a clever strategic hand, wedding itself closely to NATO and the European Union, and investing in sovereign tech and security capabilities. But with Moscow pressing and testing Europe, Estonia and its neighbours are under pressure.
Veteran Estonian MP and chair of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Marko Mihkelson argues democracies became too relaxed in the decades after the Cold War, with Europe disarming and the US and others assuming trade would dissuade authoritarian nations such as China from conflict.
Democracies today need to stick together, he says in this wide-ranging conversation, especially by supporting Ukraine. Marko talks about the ways authoritarians are exploiting polarisation in democracies and seeking to end the western-led liberal order. He explains why he believes imperialism has become ingrained in Russia over centuries. And if the likes of Estonia are to avoid a repeat of the half-century of occupation of Russian occupation they experienced during the Cold War, Russia must be utterly defeated.
What a week! And some of it was actually good news! Justin and Dave pull apart the latest events, starting with PM Anthony Albanese’s all-consuming meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House. After all the jangled nerves, it went rather well, but what does the critical minerals deal mean in geopolitical terms? Is AUKUS really safe? And just what did Navy Secretary John Phelan mean about clarifying ambiguities in the trilateral agreement?
Justin and Dave discuss Trump’s confidence that Chinese leader Xi Jinping won’t move against Taiwan any time soon, the upcoming meeting between the two leaders on the side of APEC in Seoul, and the much-welcomed new sanctions an increasingly impatient Trump has slapped on an infuriatingly recalcitrant Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Finally, they discuss Dave’s favourite story of the week: an open letter calling for a pause on the development of superintelligent AI, the pros and cons of the movement, and the surprising signatories.
In today’s episode, Natalia Solieva, former spokesperson at Ukraine’s Embassy in Washington and an expert on Russian information operations, analyses Moscow’s wartime gaslighting (and not in the sense of its dwindling energy exports to Europe.)
Natalia, now a resident in the United States, has studied extensively the battle of narratives over Moscow’s war against Ukraine. She explains the Ukrainian people’s hard-earned resilience to Russian disinformation, the weapons of influence Moscow has deployed against the US, the reassuring levels of American public support for Ukraine, Russia’s use of cognitive warfare and its attempts to intimidate Europe, the precarious state of the global information environment and the best ways to defend against disinformation.
Natalia also shares with us her favourite Winston Churchill quote.
Though it’s on the opposite side of the world, Europe is vital to Australia’s security, not just because of our shared values but also because of the continent’s role in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s aggression—arguably the test case for future global order.
Today, senior European Union diplomat Paola Pampaloni tells Stop the World about progress on the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy amid rapid shifts in geopolitics.
Paola, who is the EU’s Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific and Acting Managing Director of the European External Action Service for the Asia-Pacific, talks about the proposed Australia-EU defence and security agreement, difficulties with the free trade agreement and the strategic importance of rules-based trade. She discusses cooperation in strategic sectors such as critical minerals, the risks of dependency on China and the broader question of economic security.
She addresses the reality that China is enabling Russia’s war against Ukraine, and also covers Taiwan, EU defence spending, the authoritarian axis, the US under Donald Trump and technology cooperation with the Indo-Pacific.
Is artificial intelligence a “normal” technology like electrification, computing and the internet, or is it a new entity unlike anything we’ve ever created? The question makes all the difference to how we approach AI policy.
Today on Stop the World, David Wroe speaks to Alice Friend, the Global Head of AI and Emerging Tech Policy at Google. They tackle the big questions including the nature of AI, the meaning of “general” versus narrow intelligence, the role of embodiment and agency in the real world, the best ways to encourage adoption and integration, and the best approaches to regulation so that countries—and the world—can reap the economic benefits while reducing the safety and security risks. They discuss how the technology is evolving, how it might diffuse through economies and societies, the importance of rules and standards, what it means to “win or lose” the global AI race and what might happen if or when we achieve artificial general intelligence.
It’s a healthy discussion and debate on what AI means for humanity.
For some, Greenland might have only entered their consciousness when US President Trump offered to buy it. But there’s much more to the story, even beyond its history with the United States.
In today’s episode, Liz Buchanan gives Stop the World listeners a useful crash course on Greenland, from the mysterious disappearance of the Vikings in the 1400s, to Greenland’s pivotal role in World War II and the Cold War, and its continued – and increasing – strategic importance today.
Liz covers everything from Arctic shipping routes and how they impact Australia despite our geographical distance, Greenland’s ideal positioning for prospective polar space launches, to the Cold War's “Project Iceworm”, a US-built underground ice city complete with a barber shop and bowling alley.
As Liz explains, Greenland is far from an Arctic afterthought, and if you’ve only ever considered it as a desolate blob on top of the Mercator map, this episode will be sure to change that.
Images used in this episode are credited to So You Want to Own Greenland? Lessons from the Vikings to Trump by Elizabeth Buchanan.
Find Elizabeth’s book here https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-want-to-own-greenland/.
The Indo-Pacific is a strategic theatre named after two oceans, but according to retired US four-star general Charles Flynn, land forces would be crucial in any conflict, including over Taiwan.
In today’s episode, David Wroe speaks with Charles, who retired last year as commanding general of the US Army Pacific, about the often misunderstood and overlooked importance of land power. They consider scenarios including a Chinese full-scale invasion of Taiwan and the crucial hard power that only armies could deliver in such a conflict. Charles, who is also a senior advisor at Palantir explains the technology lessons that China and North Korea are learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the challenges for large organisations including militaries to reorientate themselves around new and transformative technologies.
And to those worried about US reliability in the Indo-Pacific, he has a message: don’t panic.
Editor’s Note: In the introduction, Olivia mentions that ASPI last hosted General Flynn in 2021. ASPI hosted him in February 2022.
Stop the World is hosting a short series of conversations with Australian politicians that transcend daily politics and breaking news to get to the fundamental strategy and security challenges Australia faces.
In the first of the series, we speak with Shadow Finance Minister, Senator James Paterson. James shares frank views on Australia’s strategic risks, the need to deter authoritarian powers, his advocacy for higher defence spending—despite his instinctive fiscal prudence—and the role technology can play in boosting the economy so Australia doesn't get left behind by the transformative power of artificial intelligence.
He talks about balancing his classical liberal support for an open economy with the need to safeguard strategic industries and technologies, the responsibilities of the tech industry, the maintenance of the Australia-US alliance under the unconventional Trump administration, and the need to prioritise future generations so young people don’t become disillusioned with politics.
James has been a Senator for Victoria since 2016 and has previously served as Shadow Minister for Home Affairs and Cyber, and chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security.
In this special episode of Stop the World, David Wroe speaks with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belariusan democracy advocate who leads a government-elect from exile. After dictator Alexander Lukashenka declared himself winner of the 2020 election despite sweeping evidence that the people had chosen Sviatlana, 1.5 million Belarusians took to the streets, sparking a brutal crackdown and Sviatlana’s deportation to neighbouring Lithuania.
Sviatlana says that the fight for freedom has made her more human, that it’s “not just about politics—it's about love. It's about dedication. It’s a fight not only for your family, but for your country.”
She tells the story of how 2020 unfolded, the nature of the regime and its repression, Lukashenka’s deep dependence on Vladimir Putin—and the price that Putin extracts—the importance of Ukraine’s liberation, the role of the United States and the security of Europe. She also shares her own story, including the five-year imprisonment of her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, an activist and blogger whom she replaced at the last moment as a 2020 candidate after Siarhei was abruptly detained on trumped-up charges.
As the interview took place, news was breaking that Poland was forced to shoot down several Russian drones, at least some of which came from Belarus—a reminder of what’s at stake in both Belarus’ and Ukraine’s fights for freedom.
History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.
Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.
In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.
Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.
This week, Australia made international headlines when it revealed Iran had directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia using local criminals as proxies. In response, the Australian Government expelled Iran’s Ambassador, the first time we have done so since World War Two.
While this sort of activity is new for Australia, it fits a growing pattern in Europe where Russia and to some extent Iran have been using this tactic of hiring what are in effect gig workers to carry out such sabotage operations against other countries.
To discuss hybrid threat activities and explain this tactic of using disposable agents, David Wroe speaks to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Elisabeth details the methods of sabotage, the purposes of sabotage to interfere in other countries and their politics and the enabling role of technology in these activities.
Donald Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, then with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, then with a posse of European leaders who joined Zelenskyy as back up. Everyone was polite to one another, but as Russia expert Mark Galeotti reminds us on today’s episode, there were a lot of questions left unanswered.
Mark, who hosts the popular podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, says the best thing about the string of meetings over recent days was that it might kick start the hard work of proper, behind-the-scenes detailed negotiations, without which meetings of leaders aren’t going to advance the peace process. He talks through all the key issues, including the talk of a temporary ceasefire, the difficulties of security guarantees—particularly a European “coalition of the willing” with boots on the ground—the prospects for further sanctions on Russia, Russia’s broader intentions towards Europe, Putin’s own challenges at home, and the need ultimately for Ukraine to build up its own defence industrial base, and sustain a long-term military force that can protect the nation without massive international support.
Mark is the author of Putin’s Wars, The Weaponisation of Everything, We Need To Talk About Putin and his latest book, Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World.
Donald Trump famously called him “little rocket man”. Xi Jinping just thinks he’s a punk. But North Korea’s delphic leader Kim Jong-un has played a savvy hand and brought his country back from the ruinous Covid era to put himself in a strong position through his deals with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Anna Fifield, long-time foreign correspondent and North Korea-watcher who is now the Washington Post’s Asia Editor, explains the Kim’s strategic cunning, his relations with Moscow and Beijing, the state of the country for its tyrannised people and its bizarre two-track economy. She also talks about public positioning of his ‘tweenage daughter Kim Ju-ae as part of a possible succession plan, the reality that North Korea has consolidated itself as a nuclear weapons power, and what the failure of Donald Trump’s first-term nuclear negotiations with Kim portends for Trump’s coming talks with Putin on Ukraine.
Anna is the author of The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un.
Britain’s 2018 “fusion doctrine” was an effort to bring together the elements of national power to enhance the country’s security and strategic interests under the post-Brexit “global Britain”.
Its architect, Lord Mark Sedwill, is today’s guest. He assesses the key global trends, challenges and crises—Donald Trump’s second administration; Chinese assertiveness; Russia’s war on Ukraine and the unfolding tragedy in Gaza—and talks about what a fusion doctrine might look like for 2025, including the dynamic elements of rapid technology advances and turmoil in international trade.
Mark held the dual roles of national security adviser and cabinet secretary—or the head of the UK civil service—under Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson. He’s previously served as UK ambassador to Afghanistan, the NATO senior civilian representative in Afghanistan and the head of the Home Office. He’s now a Member of the UK House of Lords and chair of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.
In this special episode, ASPI's Resident Technical Specialist, Jocelinn Kang, talks through hyperscale cloud and why it’s increasingly important for countries to get their policies right depending on their strategic circumstances. All countries want to protect their citizens’ data and have some sovereign computing capabilities, but what if your data centres are attacked? What if the undersea cables connecting you to the world are cut?
Is there a sweet spot between building at home and outsourcing to the hyperscale firms—the big tech firms such as Microsoft, Google, AWS, Meta and Oracle? What does it mean for a country’s innovation strength and its ability to digitise its state, its society and its economy? These are important questions around the world, but nowhere more than in the Indo-Pacific region. This episode draws on work ASPI has done with support from Microsoft.
Today we speak with China military scholar Elsa B. Kania about China’s military modernisation. How good is the People’s Liberation Army? Where has it progressed? Where is it still deficient? And the big ones: can it match the US and how ready is it to take Taiwan by force if Xi Jinping gives the order?
Much of Elsa’s recent work has focussed on the role of technology in the PLA’s capabilities, doctrine and command structure. She talks about the role of artificial intelligence, the concepts of informatisation and intelligentisation, and the Chinese view of the ethics of automating lethal force. She also talks about China’s military rehearsals around Taiwan, its concept of “peace disease”, and China’s overall strategy with its growing military assertiveness.
Elsa is a PhD candidate in Harvard University's Department of Government, where she’s just recently defended her dissertation, "China's Command Revolution." Her research focuses on China's military strategy, defense innovation, and emerging capabilities. She is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Center for a New American Security's Technology and National Security Program, and she was also a Fulbright Specialist and Non-Resident Fellow with the International Cyber Policy Centre at ASPI.
Julia Ebner is a leading researcher in the area of extremism, radicalisation and conspiracy theories. She’s spent time undercover among incels, anti-vaxxers and neo-nazis, and combines this brave reportage with a deep understanding of politics.
In today’s episode, Julia explains the unsettling trend of kooky and dangerous ideas making their way into the political mainstream, as fringe ideas are repackaged as successful populist weapons. She talks about conspiracy theories such as QAnon, the idea of “identity fusion” which brings together people with a wide range of anti-establishment grievances, the psychology behind conspiracy myths, the anxieties that modern society creates, and the state of US politics.
Finally she talks solutions, promoting four elegant principles of “critical thinking, lateral reading, self awareness and emotional intelligence” — a useful lesson for us all.
Bethany Allen explains her investigation into a British university’s joint venture campus in China and the risks of critical tech collaboration.
Recently an ASPI team led by our head of China investigations and analysis Bethany Allen published a report on a joint venture university campus between Xi’an Jiaotong University in China and Liverpool University in Britain. Their findings raise serious questions about research collaboration into sensitive technologies, including those with military applications.
In today’s episode, Bethany talks through the findings, including the joint university’s partnerships and close links with entities sanctioned by Britain, the US, the EU and other nations for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and helping with China’s military modernisation.
She explains the risks that these partnerships create, how widespread they might be, and what more needs to be done by universities themselves by way of due diligence into their partnerships, but also the need for governments to set clearer rules and guidelines about what defines unacceptable risk.
Read the article A British university’s technology entanglements with Russia and China, by Bethany Allen, Danielle Cave and Adam Ziogas.
Executive director Justin Bassi and resident senior fellow David Wroe discuss issues of the week, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to China, US President Donald Trump’s overdue but welcome change of heart on support for Ukraine, and the clashes in Syria that prompted Israel to intervene on behalf of the Druze population and strike Syrian targets including in Damascus.
They talk about risks that Australia becomes once again vulnerable to economic coercion despite lessons from the recent past, and that we send Beijing the signal that we are prioritising short-term economics over security. They discuss their tentative hopes that Trump might hold to his changed position that Russia finally needs to be pressured to come to the peace table. And they unpack their views on the complex flareup in southern Syria during the week that has reportedly left hundreds dead.