History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.

Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.

In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.

Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.