This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

With the PKK announcing disarmament, New Lines' own Zara Farouk speaks with, Ceylan Akca, a DEM Party Politician in Türkiye's Grand National Assembly. Together, they explore whether this moment marks a true turning point or another pause in a long, unfinished struggle and what comes next for Kurdish rights, representation, and reconciliation in Türkiye.

This week, in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where they agreed on new trade concessions following a weeklong series of meetings that saw the U.S. upgrading trade ties with regional allies. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas traded ceasefire violation accusations following Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Gaza that resulted in over 100 Palestinian deaths. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia reported successful test launches of a nuclear-capable underwater drone and cruise missile, while Ukraine continued its campaign of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251031/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the EU passed sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure and vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals deal ahead of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the Chinese Communist Party approved a draft of its new five-year plan. In the Middle East, U.S. officials traveled to Israel in an attempt to bolster Gaza ceasefire efforts amid reports of clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinians. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251024/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations and delays were reported. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said India confirmed it would halt Russian oil purchases. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump to discuss the U.S. possibly providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured his Japanese counterparts to halt Russian oil purchases. Trump confirmed CIA covert operations in Venezuela as the Pentagon confirmed a striking a fifth alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251017/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson talks with Matthew Petti, an assistant editor at Reason whose work has appeared in outlets including the BBC, The Intercept, and New Lines Magazine. They discuss the covert funding of Israeli settlements by U.S.-registered charities, specifically what projects and purchases they are financing, how their work exacerbates violent conditions in the West Bank, and how U.S. policymakers approach the topic.

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251003/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive. In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption. Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Robert Kremzner sits down with John Nagl and Jonathan Schroden, experts in irregular warfare and the American experience in Afghanistan. Together, they go over the strategic, operational, and tactical failure of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, how the Afghanistan withdrawal can inform future withdrawals, and President Donald Trump’s call to re-occupy the Bagram Airbase.

This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states warned they may reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework deal regarding the sale of Chinese social media app TikTok, extending its deadline, while China ordered its companies to stop buying microchips from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured European nations to suspend all energy imports from Russia, while Polish defense officials announced a joint cooperation initiative with Ukraine on countering drone attacks following last week’s incursion by Russian drones into Polish airspace. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve announced it would be cutting interest rates, with more cuts expected before the end of the year. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250919/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Andrew P. Miller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss his experience shaping U.S. policy towards Israel/Palestine, including sanctions targeting perpetrators of violence in the West Bank, regional diplomacy, and the evolving role of U.S. engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially concerning Israel’s war in Gaza.

This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250912/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines’ own Emily Prey sits down with renowned international lawyers Louise Arimatsu and Christine Chinkin, authors of the New Lines report “A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law.” Among other topics, their discussion touches on how gender is used to justify aggression; the gaps in international law regarding slow, non-spectacular violence; and how a gender lens can help with atrocity prevention. Read the report here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/gender/a-gendered-analysis-of-aggression-and-international-law/

This week, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, attended by 20 foreign leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives of Ukraine’s allies in a new round of discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees, while U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats of sanctions against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel’s campaign against Gaza City intensified while its Cabinet convened to discuss a proposal to further annex West Bank territory. In the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. launched a military strike against a vessel linked to drug smugglers who the Trump administration claim are operating under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s orders. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250905/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the New Lines Countours podcast, Director Caroline Rose sits down with New Lines Senior Fellow Faysal Itani to discuss the potential withdrawal of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Together, they discuss the role that UNIFIL has played over the previous decades, the challenges that the interim force faces, and what the Lebanese security landscape may look like going forward.

In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines Associate Analyst Amari Jones sits down with Nyamal Tutdeal, a globally recognized South Sudanese-Ethiopian-American peace architect who has transformed conflict into healing through her blend of academic excellence and ancestral wisdom. Together, they explore the intersection of identity, power, and peacebuilding, and how Nyamal’s unique approach is reshaping global security and the role of women in post-conflict societies.

This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250829/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of the Contours Lebanese Logic Podcast, host Faysal Itani sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi. Together, they discuss the recent effort by the Lebanese government and military to disarm Hezbollah, including how likely the effort is to succeed, and what the future landscape of power looks like in the country.

In this episode of Strategic Crossroads, host Zara Farouk sits down with journalist and analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg to unpack the landmark March agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government. Together they explore what this deal means for Kurdish self-rule, the future of gender parity in governance, and the mounting pressures on Syrian minority communities such as the Druze. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute.