This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.
In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.
In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.
Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city.
Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251107/
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
