The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers! After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.   Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode. Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.   For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.   🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter.VKFLGPrI0PVqjXUrjxdX

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!   Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.   📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year   🎧 Subscribe & Follow: Twitter / Instagram: @TheRobbeo YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheRobbeo Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross   If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.   Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.   💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.   📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com   If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.

We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.   The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.   💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.   🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.   👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!

The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.   If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com

The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.   The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.   Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.   Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network.    Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss. Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos 06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva 08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus 10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva   Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes 05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro 08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy 11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.   SHOW NOTES: Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas 04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta 06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling 09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev 04:56 - Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose 08:00 - Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez 10:55 - Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page 14:02 - Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates 16:52 - Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges.    Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko 06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira 09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto 10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park   Make sure to Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com   Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore 04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski 08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle 10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.   The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week.    SHOW NOTES: Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci 04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov 08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder   Follow and Subscribe! Twitter: http://x.com/TheRobbeo IG: http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo Full model report card: http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen 05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira 09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov 16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura 05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin 07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira 09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia 12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com   Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev 10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van 21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano 29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France 36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com   Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:04 - Recap 01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku 03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park 09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes 18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC Atlanta.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:00 - Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth 12:19 - Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos 23:34 - Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick 33:30 - Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers.    Follow and Subscribe! Twitter/X @TheRobbeo IG: TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com   Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang 13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta 24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland 27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison 34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://robbeo.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt 07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho 13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson 20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein 27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber