We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.   The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.   💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.   🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.   👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!