I @josuevizcay
delve into the intricacies of sports betting, discussing the importance of tracking performance, understanding cognitive biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the role of probability theory in predicting outcomes.
He shares insights on how to avoid common pitfalls in betting, emphasizing the need for clarity and self-awareness to succeed.
The conversation also touches on the dynamics of NFL games, the impact of special teams, and strategies for monetizing sports outcomes.
Dunning–Kruger Effect
- This is the best-known term.
- It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.
- It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.
Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)
- Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”
- People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.
3.
Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)
- When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.
- In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.
4.
Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)
- In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.
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