I @josuevizcay delve into the intricacies of sports betting, discussing the importance of tracking performance, understanding cognitive biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the role of probability theory in predicting outcomes. He shares insights on how to avoid common pitfalls in betting, emphasizing the need for clarity and self-awareness to succeed. The conversation also touches on the dynamics of NFL games, the impact of special teams, and strategies for monetizing sports outcomes. Dunning–Kruger Effect - This is the best-known term. - It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes. - It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are. Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias) - Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.” - People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise. 3. Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context) - When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical. - In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia. 4. Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance) - In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.