In this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded Pru and Peter dive into the future of EU-Australia relations and how this field is evolving in today’s changing geopolitical landscapes.
Based off of their recent discussions in Bologna, Italy, Trade Policy Decoded brings back insights from forum discussions in mapping possible trajectories for relationships between Australia and the European Union. From this, shared interests and key objectives for both regions are identified and explored within the context of current global trade dynamics.
As a group of countries that value the rule of law and the strengthening of democratic institutions, there is certainly good reason for deeper cooperation and coordination in EU-Australia relations. But what are the methods and avenues that exist for deepening these relationships? And what can the EU and Australia do to overcome existing obstacles preventing future cooperation? These questions and more are explored throughout this episode.
Get more analysis on the ACITI website and the IIT LinkedIn Page!
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru talk to Australia’s Ambassador to the WTO, James Baxter, on a range of issues facing the organisation and WTO member responses to President Trump’s trade policies.
They canvas WTO member outreach via the Public Forum and key themes discussed at this year’s Forum, critical challenges facing the WTO, the WTO reform agenda, scope for securing new outcomes at the 14th Ministerial Conference in 2026, and the ongoing and important work Australia’s diplomats undertake in promoting Australia’s trade interests.
These topics and more are explored in this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded.
Find more analysis on the IIT LinkedIn Page and ACITI website!
Standing in Iraq beneath a banner reading ‘Mission Accomplished’, former President George W. Bush proclaimed that ‘major combat operations in Iraq have ended … the United States and our allies have prevailed’. This was 6-weeks after the U.S. bypassed the UN to unilaterally invade the country. It proved to be a dubious claim.
In this edition of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter look at what kind of ‘Mission Accomplished’ the Trump Administration’s reciprocal tariffs are trying to achieve, and what ‘victory’ looks like to those on the inside of recent trade policy manoeuvres.
In doing this, Trade Policy Decoded surveys recent US commentary by Peter Navarro, Jamieson Greer, Richard Baldwin, Adam Posen and Michael Froman. While Navarro and Greer depict President Trump’s tariffs as a response to a world perceived to be exploiting America, Baldwin identifies grievance as driving US trade policy. Posen highlights the costs of the US moving away from the rules-based system, while Froman envisions a variable geometry of trade rules and coalitions to replace the WTO – or perhaps more of the same but without the US.
Find more analysis on the IIT LinkedIn Page and ACITI website!
The PC’s Trade and Assistance Review (TAR) has measured the costs of tariffs, industry policy and other trade measures on the Australian economy for over 50 years. The TAR’s importance has only increased with the trade chaos caused by President Trump and the revival of industry policy in Australia and elsewhere. In this episode of TPD, Pru and Peter speak to special guest Alex Robson, Deputy Chair of the Australian Productivity Commission, about the role of the PC and the key findings in this year’s TAR.
They traverse the PC’s assessment of the impact of US tariffs, its advice Australia remove nuisance tariffs, the challenges of modelling uncertainty, and how the PC’s economic assessments sit with national security and climate policy objectives. It ends with Alex very firmly keeping his PC hat on and providing his views on the upcoming Australian Government’s Productivity Roundtables.
Find more analysis on the IIT LinkedIn Page and ACITI website!
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru catch up on the latest developments coming out of the United States with a special focus on the Optimum Tariff Theory.
The theory can certainly paint a rosy picture for the future of the US economy, but does it hold up against current data? And how might international trading partners react to the creation of such a policy?
In answering this question, Peter and Pru decipher some of the key data and indicators which can speak to the performance of the US economy through recent reorientations in trade policy. They also discuss recent developments in the world of diplomacy and trade-negotiations, tracking bilateral talks taking place between the US and economies in Europe and Asia, highlighting the potential outcomes and difficulties which an ‘Optimum tariff Theory’ might encounter.
In wrapping up this episode, Trade Policy Decoded also traces Australia’s position in all of this, and what recent meetings with Beijing and missed meetings with Washington could mean for Australia’s trade strategy and policy moving forward.
Find more analysis on the IIT LinkedIn Page and ACITI website!
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter provide an update on key trade policy developments over the past fortnight. They delve into the implications of US domestic legal cases aimed at reversing President Trump's Liberation Day and fentanyl tariffs. They also look at other US domestic measures raising concerns for trade partners including budget measures targeting digital services taxes, crackdowns on US universities and National Guard actions in California.
With Peter and Pru having just attended the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade's CPTPP Business Symposium, they outline views on the need for economies to band together to counter Trump-created chaos, but equally the difficulty in crossing traditional red lines to foster collaboration. The Australia-EU is a case in point where both sides will need to compromise further to get this agreement across the line.
Find more analysis on the IIT LinkedIn Page and ACITI website!
Recorded on 13 June 2025
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru host Fredrik Erixon, a Swedish economist and Founding Director of the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), in discussing the future of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union's role in its future.
Is it necessary for the EU to join the partnership explicitly? How could the Agreement benefit from EU involvement? These questions and more are decoded and discussed in this episode.
Find more analysis on the IIT and ACITI LinkedIn Pages!
SPECIAL EPISODE - In this week's instalment of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru welcome Professor Lu Xiankun, a former senior trade diplomat of China, current Managing Director of the LEDECO Centre Switzerland, and Founder and CEO of the Friends of Multilateralism Group.
Together, the team discusses how recent trade developments are beginning to be perceived in Geneva and the current challenges facing the WTO. The discussion also covers how things might progress moving forward with relevance for both middle power countries and the major powers in global trade.
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru dive further into the ramifications of the new Trumpian trade policies and their impacts on Australia and the world.
The discussion covers some of the current and potential responses intended to deal with the impending 'reciprocal tariffs' being levied by the US, and how this may influence trade relationships between countries in the near-future.
Find more analysis on the IIT and ACITI LinkedIn Pages!
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter discuss the implications of President Trump's 'Reciprocal Tariffs '. They outline what President Trump announced, the (very few and likely short lived) exemptions, what the tariffs are supposed to achieve, and the (un)likelihood of them ending any time soon.
Peter and Pru also discuss what the new tariffs mean for countries in the ASEAN region and on the African continent, the implications the tariffs could have for regional geopolitical developments, and the impacts and implications for Australian producers and policy makers.
In this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter Draper and Prudence Gordon discuss the chaotic state of U.S. policy under the Trump administration. They explore the implications of recent tariff announcements, Trump's potential long-game facing China, and the rest of the world's ongoing responses to the reorientation of U.S. foreign policy. The discussion highlights the challenges of navigating a rapidly changing trade landscape and the broader geopolitical implications of U.S. trade decisions.
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter Draper and Prudence Gordon discuss the evolving landscape of trade policy under the Trump administration as it enters 2025. They analyze the implications of Trump's Fair and Reciprocal Plan, the impact of tariffs on global trade, and the potential consequences for international relations and the WTO. The conversation also touches on Australia's position in this changing environment and the broader economic implications of these policies.
As 2024 comes to a close, Pru and Peter look back on the key themes Trade Policy Decoded explored over the year - as well as their favourite episodes.
Trade Policy Decoded is taking a break over Christmas and will be back in mid-Feb 2025 with more great discussion on hot trade issues - of which we expect there will be many! Until then, we wish all out listeners a wonderful Christmas and restful New Year.
Recorded on 9 December 2024.
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter are joined by Professor Andreas Freytag from the Friedrich Schiller University to discuss the trade policy implications of a second Trump Presidency.
The conversation traverses President Trump's promised new tariffs as well as the unresolved trade irritants from his first presidency; China's, the European Union's and Australia's possible responses; and the potential for international trade cooperation without the United States.
Surprisingly, the discussion ends on a positive note!
Measures to reduce domestic carbon emissions at home can impose costs and regulatory requirements on businesses that aren't shared by their international competitors. This can encourage production to move from countries with high emissions reduction standards to countries with low standards - ie carbon leakage. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is how the EU has tried to address this issue and level the playing field.
In this episode of Trade Polic Decoded, Pru and Peter talk to Professor Frank Jotzo from the Australian National University about his work leading the Australian Government's review of the potential for carbon leakage in Australia. Will Australia introduce its own CBAM? Only Minister Bowen knows but Frank and his team's review provide some useful indicators.
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter are joined by Dr Harry Wardana from the University of Adelaide. Harry presents fascinating insights into Indonesia's vision for its future and the role international trade and investment, particularly trade agreements, will play in that. Harry's frank about the challenges and contradictions that create hurdles for foreign investors who are critical for Indonesia's economic growth. The end of the podcast has a great kicker in Harry's description of how Australia's emissions reduction efforts are creating investment opportunities for Indonesian companies in Australia, that are, in turn, supporting Indonesia's green transition. A super podcast!
In Episode 18 of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru speak to the President of the Australian Services Roundtable, Holly Dorber, about the Joint Statement Initiative on Electronic Commerce – commonly known as the JSI. This groundbreaking agreement provides a set of rules and principles guiding the development of the digital economy. While negotiated outside the World Trade Organisation, 91 economies were involved in its design and 82 have so far signed on to the text. It has major positive outcomes for Australian business, particularly SMEs, and is an awesome outcome demonstrating the ability of countries to cooperate particularly in the current climate.
In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter share the popcorn while chatting about President Biden's decision to step aside as candidate for the US Democratic Party and its implications for US trade policy. They then delve into the populist lean seen in recent European and French elections and what it means for EU trade policy and the EU-Australia FTA. They wrap up with a discussion on the EU's initiatives to build its defence industries and the uncomfortable fit between inward-turning populist movements and the national security imperatives requiring closer cooperation with like-mindeds.
Recorded on 25 July 2024
If you only listen to one podcast on international trade policy this year - make it this one.
Pru and Peter talk to Vangelis Vitalis, Deputy Secretary, Trade and Economic, of the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and one of the most experienced and insightful trade diplomats around.
Vangelis explains progress on accessions to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership, and the important work reviewing and updating the CPTTP.
He then describes New Zealand's incredibly positive and proactive approach to the seismic shifts rocking the global economy and geopolitics.
As with rugby - Australia could learn a lesson or two here from our NZ cousins!
Countries are increasingly turning back to industry policy in order to meet the climate change challenge and secure national security objectives. In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter discuss what industry policy is and the tensions between trade and industry policy. They also delve into Australia's own attempt at industry policy in the form of the Future Made in Australia Act and associated budget measures.
