Inflation is heating up—and the reasons run deeper than your grocery bill. In this week’s episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia breaks down how expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with tariffs, are fueling persistent price pressures across the economy. From higher coffee and olive oil prices to the stock market’s “run it hot” trade, John examines the forces driving growth, inflation, and risk in today’s markets. Stay informed on what’s shaping the economy.👉 Subscribe to The Economic Effect and sign up for the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

In this week’s episode of The Economic Effect, former Chief Economist John Silvia examines what the gold rally reveals about inflation expectations, the U.S. dollar, and investor confidence in economic policy. From the Fed’s easing stance to rising commodity prices and an overstretched equity market, John breaks down how “restrictive” policy may be anything but. Get clear insights on where inflation, interest rates, and the dollar are headed — and why the lessons from 1979 may matter more than ever. 📩 Stay ahead of policy shifts and market trends — subscribe to John’s weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

This week on The Economic Effect, former Chief Economist John Silvia explores how soaring government debt is shaking markets across the globe. From the collapse of France’s government to rising U.K. borrowing costs, Argentina’s fragile reforms, and mounting U.S. deficits, John reveals why sovereign debt can’t be ignored — and what it means for growth, interest rates, and investors.   🎧 Tune in for clear insights on the forces shaping today’s economy and practical takeaways for investors navigating this uncertain environment. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com to stay ahead of what’s next.

Markets are gearing up for a potential Fed rate cut in September — but easing comes with trade-offs. In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia unpacks what lower short-term rates and expanded credit could mean for economic growth, inflation, and asset valuations. From equity markets and private credit to crypto and the dollar, investors face both opportunities and challenges. Inflation remains sticky, long-term Treasury yields are resistant, and fiscal stimulus is adding fuel to the fire. The question now is whether faster growth can outweigh the risks of higher prices and rates. 🎧 Tune in for clear insights on the forces shaping today’s economy and practical takeaways for investors navigating this uncertain environment. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com to stay ahead of what’s next.

What if small businesses know more about the future of the economy than Wall Street does? Small businesses are the heartbeat of the U.S. economy—and their latest survey reveals a story you can’t afford to miss. In this episode, John Silvia digs into the newest NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report, uncovering what’s really happening behind the headlines. Optimism is climbing back above its 52-year average, but so is uncertainty—painting a picture of growth shadowed by risk. Why are firms raising prices faster than last year? Why is labor quality a bigger problem than labor cost? And what do these pressures mean for profits, Fed policy, and ultimately your investments? From inflation that won’t let up, to hiring struggles, to the warning signs in compensation trends—these ground-level insights tell us where the economy is headed next. Want more timely economic insights every week? Subscribe to John Silvia’s newsletter at johnesilvia.com.

The latest U.S. tariffs are sending ripples through inflation, interest rates, and currency markets. Former Chief Economist John Silvia connects the dots between slowing consumer spending, manufacturing job losses, and the surprising behavior of the U.S. dollar. Get the clear, market-savvy perspective you need to stay ahead. For more expert insights and weekly economic updates, visit johnesilvia.com and subscribe to the newsletter.

In this episode of The Economic Effect, host and former Chief Economist John Silvia analyzes three major economic indicators shaping the outlook for markets and monetary policy: second-quarter GDP, the latest FOMC policy statement, and June’s personal income and core PCE inflation data. John discusses the rebound in GDP growth to 3.0% in Q2, but notes underlying weakness in consumer and business investment amid tariff uncertainty. He interprets the FOMC’s July statement and Chair Powell’s press conference as a signal that no imminent rate cuts are likely—especially with inflation climbing above the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment remaining low. Core PCE inflation now stands at 2.8%, while Treasury yields adjust in response to a more hawkish policy stance. The takeaway? Despite softening momentum, the U.S. economy continues to operate near full employment, and rate cuts in the near term appear unlikely. For more expert insights and weekly economic updates, visit johnesilvia.com and subscribe to the newsletter.

In this episode of The Economic Effect, host and former Chief Economist John Silvia examines a surprising headline: emerging market borrowing costs have nearly matched U.S. rates for the first time since 2007. But is this a signal of investor confidence in emerging markets—or a growing vote of no confidence in the U.S. dollar? John breaks down the interconnected movements in commodities, credit, currencies, and equities to assess where inflation, interest rates, and the dollar are truly headed. With persistent inflation, rising term premiums, and deficit concerns putting pressure on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, what are the implications for Fed policy—and for equity markets banking on a rate cut? If you want to understand the real forces shaping today’s markets—and where they’re likely headed—this episode delivers the clarity and depth you’ve been waiting for. 🎧 Listen now and subscribe to our newsletter at johnesilvia.com #Markets #Inflation #FederalReserve #USDollar #EmergingMarkets #EconomicPolicy #JohnSilvia #TheEconomicEffect

In this episode, economist John Silvia explores the ripple effects of the latest tariff measures on U.S. credit markets, inflation expectations, and central bank policy. As firms navigate rising import costs and margin pressure, questions arise about the Fed’s response amid persistent inflation and political uncertainty. John examines how small businesses, lenders, and banks may need to adjust credit frameworks and risk exposure. He also offers insights on real interest rate trends, the dollar’s vulnerability, and why a broad reshoring of manufacturing remains unlikely under a 10% tariff baseline. Key topics include: Why the inflationary impact of tariffs may be delayed What Fed inaction means for real rates and long-term inflation How tariffs reshape bank credit standards and loan risk Where small businesses are most exposed The overlooked risks to consumer credit—especially for younger borrowers Why stagflation remains unlikely despite rising long-term yields 📩 Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com for more expert insights on markets and policy.

This week on The Economic Effect, host John Silvia shares his essential summer reading list—curated for thoughtful leaders, investors, and policymakers. Move beyond the headlines and political fluff with timeless works that sharpen your understanding of markets, risk, leadership, and decision-making. From A Conflict of Visions to Minding Mr. Market, John highlights the books that have shaped his own economic perspective—and can help you make better decisions today. Perfect listening for anyone looking to gain a deeper edge in a complex global economy. For more insights, visit johnesilvia.com and subscribe to the weekly newsletter.   Newsletter: https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

This week on The Economic Effect, John Silvia, former Chief Economist, explores the deepening divide between U.S. fiscal policy and market expectations. With limited political will to control federal spending and constrained Fed rate policy, financial markets are shifting in unpredictable ways. Key themes include: The growing mismatch between fiscal expansion and inflation control U.S. dollar depreciation and rising currency risk for investors A break from traditional economic assumptions as markets seek a new equilibrium Why interest rates, inflation expectations, and the U.S. deficit are more connected than ever The risk of political agendas overriding market function John unpacks what this means for households, investors, and policymakers—and why there may be no return to the old market “norms.”   Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia examines the recent spike in global sovereign debt yields across the U.S., UK, and Japan—an early warning signal of deeper financial pressure. Drawing from insights by the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, John explains how rising term premiums, economic policy uncertainty, and reduced foreign demand for U.S. debt are reshaping investor expectations. With countries like the UK and Japan shifting their borrowing strategies, and inflation proving stickier than anticipated, markets may be headed for a sustained period of higher interest rates. John highlights the risks for equity valuations and the limits of potential Fed action this summer. This is a critical listen for investors and policymakers looking to understand the ripple effects of today’s fiscal decisions on tomorrow’s global markets.   Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia analyzes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Household Debt and Credit Report for Q1 2025—prior to the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs. The report reveals a rise in serious delinquencies across auto loans, mortgages, home equity, and credit cards, particularly among younger and middle-aged borrowers. This trend aligns with declining consumer sentiment, falling savings rates, and slower real consumer spending. John notes that even before the tariffs, consumers were under mounting financial pressure. The S&P 500 also declined by March, further signaling weakened financial conditions.  Looking ahead, John warns that new tariffs will likely reduce real disposable income, raise interest rates, and worsen credit quality for banks. He emphasizes the importance of examining not just the direct effects of economic policies, but also their broader, long-term economic consequences. Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

This week on The Economic Effect, we break down three key economic reports that paint a complex picture of the U.S. economy. From a surprise GDP dip to tariff-driven consumer behavior, we dive into how households and businesses rushed to get ahead of the April “Liberation Day” tariffs—artificially boosting imports while distorting traditional economic readings. We focus on the mixed signals in consumer spending, including a surprising drop in McDonald’s U.S. sales, and how business investments surged ahead of expected policy shifts. But that’s not all—we unpack stubborn inflation trends and what investors should expect as the Fed's 2% inflation target drifts further out of reach. Let’s explore a cooling but steady labor market, where moderation—not momentum—is the theme. Whether you're an investor, policymaker, or just trying to understand what’s driving your portfolio, this episode connects the dots between economic policy and everyday financial impact. Tune in to stay ahead of the curve.   Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

This week on The Economic Effect, we dive into the growing wave of foreign investors pulling their money out of U.S. markets — and why it matters more than you might think. Host John Silvia, former Chief Economist, explains how these outflows are affecting everything from stock prices to interest rates and even the value of the dollar. What’s behind the shift? New tariffs and unpredictable economic policies are making investors nervous, driving them to safer places like gold and cash instead of U.S. stocks and bonds. We break down how one policy decision — like a tariff — can ripple through the economy and shake confidence on a global scale. From rising interest rates to falling investor trust, the signals are clear: foreign money is no longer guaranteed to stick around. As confidence in U.S. leadership and economic direction wavers, we’re starting to see warning signs that could point to bigger problems ahead. Tune in to hear why these changes matter for everyday investors, business leaders, and anyone watching the future of the U.S. economy. Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

Is a recession on the horizon—or are we just seeing shadows? In this episode, we dive deep into the economic data to decode the signals that matter most. From jobless claims to consumer sentiment, from manufacturing trends to commodity prices, we're breaking down six leading indicators that could reveal where the economy is truly headed in the coming quarters. With most data still reflecting the pre-Liberation Day period, and first-quarter GDP weighed down by preemptive imports ahead of expected tariffs, it’s more important than ever to look closely at what’s driving the numbers. Are layoffs truly low? Are consumers losing confidence? And what do softening copper and oil prices say about global demand? As Reacher says, “details matter”—and in this episode, we show you why.   Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

The bond market just sent a hurricane warning—and investors are scrambling. Tariff wars, rising Treasury yields, and a sinking dollar have flipped the financial playbook upside down. Gold is back, the “flight to safety” is failing, and even James Carville’s favorite intimidator—the bond market—is getting nervous. Is this the end of conventional wisdom in global markets? And what happens when the rules of the game are negotiable? Tune in as we dive into the chaos, confusion, and clarity behind these truly Strange Days.     Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

This week, President Trump unveiled a new set of tariffs on foreign nations, setting the stage for a complex sequence of global economic interactions. What does this mean for the U.S. economy, and what are the immediate effects of these tariffs? Although we're only seeing the first move in this global chess game, financial markets are already reacting. Prices for everyday goods like coffee and cocoa are rising as importers adjust to the impending tariffs. Meanwhile, the latest data shows a slowdown in economic growth, with key manufacturing indicators dipping and corporate shutdowns being announced.   On the financial front, markets are feeling the pressure: stocks are down, Treasury rates have dropped, and corporate credit spreads are widening. Even the value of the U.S. dollar is weakening as trade expectations shift. As we await responses from other nations—like Canada and the EU—uncertainty continues to loom. What’s clear is that these tariffs could significantly affect both economic growth and political relations in the coming months. From major companies like Apple and Amazon to farmers and manufacturers, the ripple effects are far-reaching.     Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

In this week’s episode, we’re diving into the most critical economic indicators that could shape the future of the economy—without the usual doom-and-gloom headlines. Are we really heading into a recession, or is it just a slowdown? We’re breaking down the latest insights, starting with the surprising drop in consumer sentiment. What does it mean for your spending habits and the future of the economy? But it's not all bad news—businesses are showing signs of optimism. We’ll explain why a surge in capital goods orders could signal a rebound in production and hiring, even as consumer sentiment dips. Plus, we’re bringing in some fresh supply-side indicators you might not be hearing about. How are worker attitudes shifting, and what’s the real impact of rising import prices on inflation? And here’s the twist: a sharp rise in economic uncertainty is causing both consumers and businesses to play it safe. Does this mean a slowdown or something more? Tune in as we explore these key indicators and reveal why the outlook is not as bleak as it seems. Don’t miss it!   Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/

In this episode, we review recent economic developments, including the ISM manufacturing report signaling slower growth and rising inflation pressures. Consumer sentiment and personal spending have dropped, with inflation expectations rising and the trade deficit widening as businesses rush to import goods before tariffs take effect. These factors point to slower economic growth, higher inflation, and interest rates, affecting equity markets and bond returns. John also discusses the impact of tariffs on markets, including specific benchmarks like softwood lumber and natural gas, and the potential for tariff-related negotiations. The stronger U.S. dollar, driven by tariffs, could hurt export competitiveness and further increase the trade deficit. Looking ahead, keep an eye on the March 12th CPI release and the Federal Reserve's March 19th decision on interest rates. Make sure to subscribe for weekly updates and expert insights. Join my newsletter for weekly updates and insights into Economics.   https://www.johnesilvia.com/subscribe/ Twitter @JohnESilviaPhD https://x.com/JohnESilviaPhD LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-e-silvia/