In this episode of The Economic Effect, host and former Chief Economist John Silvia analyzes three major economic indicators shaping the outlook for markets and monetary policy: second-quarter GDP, the latest FOMC policy statement, and June’s personal income and core PCE inflation data. John discusses the rebound in GDP growth to 3.0% in Q2, but notes underlying weakness in consumer and business investment amid tariff uncertainty. He interprets the FOMC’s July statement and Chair Powell’s press conference as a signal that no imminent rate cuts are likely—especially with inflation climbing above the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment remaining low. Core PCE inflation now stands at 2.8%, while Treasury yields adjust in response to a more hawkish policy stance. The takeaway? Despite softening momentum, the U.S. economy continues to operate near full employment, and rate cuts in the near term appear unlikely. For more expert insights and weekly economic updates, visit johnesilvia.com and subscribe to the newsletter.