Last week, Lux convened about 300 AI engineers, scientists, researchers and founders in New York City to discuss the frontiers of the field under the banner of “the AI canvas.” The idea was to move the conversation away from what can be built, to what should be built and why. AI tools have made extraordinary progress since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, and we are still just figuring out all of the ways we can use these miraculous correlation machines.Even so, there remains prodigious work on the research frontiers of artificial intelligence to identify ways of improving model performance, merging models together, and ensuring that training and inference costs are as efficient as possible. To that end, we brought together two stars of the science world to talk more about the future of AI.Kyunghyun Cho is a computer science professor at New York University and executive director of frontier research at the Prescient Design team within Genentech Research & Early Development (gRED). Shirley Ho is Group Leader of Cosmology X Data Science at the Flatiron Institute of the Simons Foundation as well as Research Professor in Physics at New York University.Together with hosts Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner, we talk about the state of the art in AI today, how scientific discovery can potentially be automated with AI, whether PhDs are a thing of the past, and what the future of universities is in a time of funding cuts and endowment taxes.
Riskgaming is part of the broader movement known as wargaming, playful experiences designed to improve decision-making across domains like defense planning, business leadership and competitive analysis. It’s a burgeoning field, and it has now attracted its very own publication in the form of the Substack newsletter Wargaming Weekly.This week, I talk with the editor Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha. He’s a wargaming fanatic based in Uganda, where he first started learning the gaming world in high school by building an underground casino. He then worked in gamification for years as a consultant before eventually entering the wargaming world as a player and now as a designer of two micro-games.We talk about Rwizi’s background, how gamification is infiltrating all kinds of different fields, the rise of wargaming and the artificial delineations that still plague the field, the ebb and flow of strategic thinking, and finally, why solitaire games offer a unique on-ramp into this world.
In this episode, Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner do a special outdoor recording from Carmel, where they reflect on the successful launch of their latest game, Gray Matter, at multiple locations, including the Lux Leaders retreat. The hosts discuss the emergent gameplay that surprised them, from spontaneous character-driven debates to unexpected trading outcomes. They explore the game's core mechanics around information markets, attention economies, and strategic publication decisions—examining how players navigate the tension between keeping information proprietary versus making it public for advantage.
The conversation shifts to Southwest Silicon, their recently launched deep-dive simulation focused on Arizona's semiconductor industry and water security challenges. Danny and Laurence discuss how this immersive format differs from their larger salon experiences, highlighting the complex world of water rights in the American Southwest and how players grappled with resource allocation decisions that mirror real-world policy dilemmas.
Looking ahead, the hosts preview upcoming games exploring urban automation, critical mineral supply chains, university research funding, civil infrastructure security, and the future of international development institutions. They discuss their philosophy of using game design to model emerging technologies and reimagine institutional frameworks for an AI-driven future.
Wargaming (of which Riskgaming is but one example) has a long and global history, from Europe and Asia into the Americas. Yet, its utility is increasingly being recognized by business, military and political leaders as a more authentic way to understand the behavior of people across all kinds of contexts. Competition, incentives, risk and decision-making flow together in a way that traditional policy memos and consultant-written PPTs can’t compare.
That’s part of the work that Pijus Krūminas is focused on. He’s a professor at Lithuania’s ISM University of Management and Economics and is the head of its Wargaming Lab. His research converges the social sciences into modeling and simulations, tapping into fields like political economy, game theory, management and more to create a new synthesis.
Subbing for host Danny Crichton this week is Ian Curtiss, our independent Riskgaming scenario designer, who recently launched Southwest Silicon as Lux’s latest offering.
Ian and Pijus talk about simulating the polycrisis, how academic research flows into wargaming design, how students are learning through experiences, why political economy is overlooked compared to traditional military wargames, and a variety of recommended games for newcomers to the field.
One of the best parts of running a game studio and policy shop here at Riskgaming at Lux Capital is the actual public launch of a new game. That day is today, because we are dropping Southwest Silicon to the world. It’s a game that models the tensions between residents, farmers as well as old and new industries in the context of the rise of chip fabs in Arizona. Water security is one of the most challenging and complex issues facing the American Southwest, and through the lens of nine characters in the game, we hope to leave every player with a more profound set of questions on what’s next as America continues to grow.
On the podcast today, host Danny Crichton talks with the game’s designer, Ian Curtiss. Ian previously designed our Chinese electric vehicle scenario, Powering Up, and now he brings his hometown lens to bear on the future of advanced manufacturing and economic development.
The two talk about the game’s design, its implications and what we’ve witnessed as we have watched players the world over compete over the future of silicon and sand. Listen in, and we hope you join a live runthrough soon — or host your own.
The launch of OpenAI’s GPT-5 has ushered in a panoply of views on the future of AGI and end-user applications. Does the platform’s aggressive router presage a future of lobotomized AI responses driven more by compute efficiency than quality? Will new chip models be able to make up the difference? And how will OpenAI, which recently hired Fidji Simo from Instacart to become CEO of Applications, expand its revenue beyond API calls and consumer subscriptions?These are huge questions which will ricochet throughout the tech economy. Thankfully, we have a veteran hand this week to go over it with us in the form of Dylan Patel, founder, CEO, and chief analyst of Semianalysis. He’s the guru everyone reads (and listens to), covering the intricacies of chips and compute for a readership of hundreds of thousands of subscribers.Joining host Danny Crichton as well as Lux’s Shahin Farshchi and Michelle Fang, the quartet discuss the questions above plus how Mark Zuckerberg is transitioning Meta Reality Labs, the hopes and dreams of new chip startups, the future of AI workloads, and finally, Intel after the U.S. government’s purchase of 10% of its shares.
It’s fun to play a game of superlatives with China. From the awe-inspiring and cyberpunk scale of the metro trains cruising through apartment blocks in Chongqing to the stupendous rate of its shipbuilding, housing construction and waterworks, China has shown that it can build like no other. That includes the just-announced Medog Hydropower Station, which at $167 billion would be one of the largest and most expensive construction projects ever seen. Behind all of this activity is a state organized for engineering, designed for speed and scale.
That’s one half of the thesis of Breakneck, the new book out by Dan Wang, which was already long listed for book of the year by the Financial Times. The other half of the thesis is that America is ruled by a lawyerly society, one that holds up projects across years of red tape and lawsuits in the name of everything from noise pollution to just good old-fashioned trolling. Can we have growth without the lawyers? And what are the costs when every project can’t be debated to its most minute detail?
Dan and host Danny Crichton talk about Dan’s trips across China, the massive growth he witnessed while living in the country for six years, and comparisons between China, America, South Korea and Japan, and why the virtuous cycle of construction is so absent from America today.
Few agencies have been more central to global affairs than the aptly-named Central Intelligence Agency. Often shrouded in mystique both cultivated and unasked for, the agency has been at the center of some of the most important foreign policy successes of the United States — such as the search for bin Laden — and also some of the country’s gravest errors, including the Iraq War WMD debacle. Yet, the agency faces profound pressure today on what its present and future mission should be in a world of increasing competition between great powers.That mission is the subject of Tim Weiner’s new book “The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century.” Weiner has been chronicling the agency since the 1980s, from its covert action program in Afghanistan to the austere budget years of the 1990s to the rise of counterterrorism and now, the pivot to Russia, China, Iran and other U.S. adversaries.Alongside host Danny Crichton, the two talk about Weiner’s history reporting on the agency, the challenge of regrouping to confront future threats versus present ones, how the agency has struggled on intelligence gathering in China, the relationship between the FBI and CIA, and finally, what’s next for the agency under the current Trump administration.
Building great Riskgaming scenarios is far more of an art than science. The designer needs to understand the players — what they know and what they don’t — and then carefully construct a landscape of decisions that has fidelity to the real world while not being overwhelming. Parsimony is key, and that means a designer really has to grok the fundamentals of the issue under hand to be able to offer the best experience.
That’s where Randy Lubin shines. Through his studio Leveraged Play, he has designed a whole suite of fun and profound policy simulations, focusing on the intricacies between tech and culture. Now, he’s also designing a new Riskgaming scenario for Lux, focused on AI, automation and the future of cities, exploring policy issues like employment and housing.
With host Danny Crichton, Randy talks about his design process, what’s going on with his upcoming scenario, how AI is changing the future of game design, and a bit about his game design community Foresight Games.
By now, we’re all familiar with the crisis that has faced America’s chip manufacturing industry. Intel remains the last bastion of homegrown chips (if we exempt new developments from TSMC and Samsung). Yet, Intel’s stock has been bludgeoned, down more than 55% over the past five years as Nvidia skyrocketed about 1,475% in the same period. What would it take to rebuild America’s chip capacity? Do we have a chance to build our own TSMC?
That’s the question that Kyle Harrison has been asking. He’s a general partner at Contrary Capital, and alongside his co-author Maxx Yung, the two wrote a new blockbuster report called, “Building an American TSMC.” It’s a magisterial look at the accidental history, enervating present and intricate future of semiconductor fabrication in the United States, and what it would really take to maintain and grow this critical capability.
Kyle and host Danny Crichton talk about Intel’s recent and historical woes, how to avoid another massive manufacturing failure like General Electric and Boeing, the complex barriers to entry in the semis market, and finally, why ecosystem development particularly around specialized labor is so crucial to protect.
There has been a massive influx of defense funding into Europe since Putin’s war on Ukraine started in early 2022. A sea change is underway, with Germany loosening its debt brake and countries from Poland and the United Kingdom to the Baltics all reseting their expectations for defense this century. But after several years, it’s time to take a retrospective look and ask, “What’s next?”To do that, host Danny Crichton talks with Eric Slesinger today. Eric is general partner of 201 Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on advancing freedom and autonomy in Europe. He’s based in Madrid, and brings a deep local perspective on the future of the Old Continent and its new tech.The two talk about the current defense tech situation in Europe, how EU countries are trying to band together around procurement, the history and future of gray zone and multi-domain combat, and where Europe competes and even out-excels America in the defense world.
Science feels under attack. The Trump administration has proposed budget cuts of up to one-third of all basic research funding, breaking a generations-long, bipartisan consensus that what is good for science is good for America. Even if not fully enacted by Congress, even the hint of cuts has already had an extraordinary effect on the perceptions of higher education and science leaders on America’s stability. Lux recently hosted a dinner with a group of these luminaries, and the general conclusion is that science institutions will need to radically change in the years ahead to adapt.
Host Danny Crichton wanted to talk more about this subject, and then he realized that we just published a great episode on our sister podcast, The Orthogonal Bet. Lux’s scientist-in-residence, Sam Arbesman, had on Kenneth Stanley, the senior vice president of open-endedness at Lila Sciences. Kenneth is also the author of “Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective, a widely praised book exploring the nature of creativity and discovery.”
The two talked about the future of research institutions, and how new forms of organizational designs might be the key to unlocking the next frontiers of knowledge in the 21st century. Their conversation delves into the tradeoffs between traditional and novel research institutions, how to carve out space for exploratory or “weird” work within large organizations, and how research itself can serve as a tool for navigating disruption.
AI and education seem like a match made in heaven, and certainly, much work and dollars are being spent trying to bring the two together. As more and more people eschew reading and outsource deep thought to Deep Research though, do we still have a chance to build up our critical thinking skills?
It’s an open question, and one that host Danny Crichton has been exploring this summer. In this episode, he narrates excerpts on the concepts of the psychology of decision making, risk-taking and dopamine to consider the broader question of whether we can ever truly grapple with radical uncertainty in the age of AI. Included in today’s episode are Ian Curtiss, Graham Norris, Nicholas Rush Smith, Kelly Clancy, Paul Collier and Brian Klaas.
Our guest today, Mike Sexton, believes that the AI singularity has arrived, and somehow, it ended up “on page C3 in the newspaper.” What he’s getting at is that the tools we have at our fingertips today like ChatGPT, NotebookLM and others are already so diversely capable, we have reached a point of no return when it comes to future societal change. We need to get ahead of those changes, embrace them, and offer new paths for everyone to take advantage of these tools.
Mike serves as the Senior Policy Advisor for AI and Digital Technology at Third Way, the prominent centrist Democratic think tank that emerged from the Clinton administration and the pro-tech, pro-competition left that was at the core of national power in the 1990s. He researches the changing policy landscape around AI technologies, and argues that Democrats need a new direction other than anti-capitalism or existential risk doomerism.
Joining hosts Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the rise of effective altruism and effective accelerationism (or e/acc), why improving government services is so critical for the future of the Democratic Party, AI technologies in robotics and research, and finally, why a bipartisan consensus is emerging on protecting America’s AI industry going forward.
Over the past few decades, an astonishing pattern has taken place: Americans no longer migrate. From a peak of roughly one third of the country moving cities in a single year, today, migration rates have declined and are now in line with the Old Continent of Europe. The dynamism of the American economy was predicated on all kinds of people seeking out work and building families, but now that mobility is gone — and we need to find out why.
Yoni Appelbaum, a senior editor at The Atlantic, just published his new book, “Stuck: How the Privileged and the Propertied Broke the Engine of American Opportunity.” In it, he explores the critical implications of a country that is no longer seeking fortune, from the decline of job growth and opportunities to the high prices of housing, and ultimately, the immiseration of the American dream. He lays down the blame on many, from Jane Jacobs and Robert Moses to communities that have made exclusion their modus operandi.
Alongside hosts Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about why Jane Jacobs has gone from hero to villain in a generation, why the history of zoning portends further challenges to reform, how the abundance movement is changing the tenor of this debate, how Covid-19 acted as a natural experiment for mobility, and finally, some solutions on how to help Americans live where they want and build a more prosperous future.
Estonia is a nation of 1.3 million people, situated in a dangerous neighborhood on the Baltic Sea. It gained its independence early in the 20th century, only for the Soviets to take the country by force. Estonia gained its independence again in 1991, and has since become one of the most digital-native countries in the world. How did a nation with a feared secret police become so open to the government digitizing data on every one of its citizens? And why did other former Soviet Republics not follow in the same way?
Those questions and more are at the center of Joel Burke’s new book, “Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution.” The nation has outperformed across the board, and Joel takes a full look at the unique institutions and cultures that led to such success.
Joining alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the early years of Estonia’s existence, why Skype was such a watershed for the nation, why privacy has a very different meaning in Estonia than elsewhere, why eGovernment can actually be even more private than our existing data systems in the United States, and finally, why Estonia’s government has so deeply embraced the private sector.
Abundance has become the word of the year in politics, led by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s book and a slew of articles and podcasts trailing in its wake. Everyone loves growth and prosperity of course, but what ultimately matters in local politics is organizing. To build the future in America’s cities, you’ve got to secure petitions, representation and votes, and that’s the subject of today’s show.
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Ryder Kessler and Catherine Vaughn, the two co-heads of Abundance New York. They’ve built up a decentralized organization of several thousand locals looking to expand New York’s prosperity in the 21st century by developing a slate of programming including meetups, petition drives, political endorsements and more. Ryder was formerly a founder of a tech startup, and Catherine built an organization to elect state legislative candidates across America.
The four talk about the crisis facing New York City, why the status quo bias is so heavy, how Abundance New York is changing the narrative around prosperity, what it’s like to organize a community centered on local issues, what’s it like to serve in local politics, and finally, how to grapple with the historical legacy of Robert Moses.
It’s not every day that we get to fete the launch of a new book by one of our colleagues at Lux Capital, so today is a very special day. Lux’s scientist-in-residence, Sam Arbesman, just published his new book, “The Magic of Code: How Digital Language Created and Connects Our World―and Shapes Our Future.” It’s a deep dive into the wonderful conjuring that comes from coding computers, and Sam explores programming languages, spreadsheets, and how code bends reality all in a taut narrative. At its center, Sam is looking to bring the human back into the machine, and create a better computing environment for the future.
Joining Editor-in-Chief of Riskgaming Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the new book and its major themes, the writing, editing and publishing process, as well as also how Sam is feeling about the science and venture world after nearly a decade with Lux.This episode will be published on both the Riskgaming and The Orthogonal Bet podcast feeds.
Food is one of the great bedrocks of human existence. Given its primacy to survival, it has also increasingly become a locus for conflict, either due to famine or as an exploitable vulnerability of even the most powerful countries. Russia’s war on Ukraine made it clear that grain could be fought over in the battle for supremacy, with the whole world dependent on the outcome.
Today, we have a special episode of the podcast. Our Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss hosts Alicia Ellis, an Air Force veteran who is now the director of the Master of Arts in Global Security program at Arizona State University. She and her husband own a regenerative farm in Phoenix’s East Valley, and she has specialized in the future of American agricultural security in her own research. She’s also designing a game of her own, called New War, to highlight the complex interplay of challenges that come with new forms of warfare and particularly so-called “gray zone” tactics.
Ian and Alicia talk about what it’s like to farm in the twenty-first century, Russia and Ukraine’s grain production, Covid-19 and beef prices, and the complete abdication of government investment in the future security of the food supply.
Since the launch of Project Stargate by OpenAI and the debut of DeepSeek’s V3 model, there has been a raging debate in global AI circles: what’s the balance between openness and scale when it comes to the competition for the frontiers of AI performance? More compute has traditionally led to better models, but V3 showed that it was possible to rapidly improve a model with less compute. At risk in the debate is nothing less than American dominance in the AI race.
Jared Dunnmon is highly concerned about the trajectory. He recently wrote “The Real Threat of Chinese AI” for Foreign Affairs, and across multiple years at the Defense Department’s DIU office, he has focused on ensuring long-term American supremacy in the critical technologies underpinning AI. That’s led to a complex thicket of policy challenges, from how open is “open-source” and “open-weights” to the energy needs of data centers as well as the censorship latent in every Chinese AI model.
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the trio talk about the scale of Stargate versus the efficiency of V3, the security models of open versus closed models and which to trust, how the world can better benchmark the performance of different models, and finally, what the U.S. must do to continue to compete in AI in the years ahead.
