Last week, we recirculated one of my favorite episodes in the entire archive, our May 2022 lunch debate on risk, bias and decision-making with Nobel Prize Winner Danny Kahneman, World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global, and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe. In last week’s episode, the group discussed the value of premortems, the possibility or impossibility of humans changing their minds and dissonance reduction.
Now we turn to the second half of their conversation as they look at the illusions and amplifications of optimism, overconfidence, and whether hot hands exist in real life.
Reindustrialization has been a persistent theme in Silicon Valley circles the past few years, and now it’s having its moment in the sun in Washington DC too. More and more policymakers, legislators and administrators have come to terms with a stark reality: America has left the means of production behind, and in the process, has surrendered some of the country’s most powerful advantages to its adversaries, namely China.
This decline wasn’t inevitable, and neither will its renaissance. But with the right ideas and a renewed force of will, it’s doable. That’s the goal of a brand-new project, the Techno-Industrial Policy Playbook, published this week by a quadrangle of policy institutions from the Foundation of American Innovation (FAI) to the Institute for Progress. Leading the charge as editor is my guest today, Kelvin Yu. Yu is a former staffer on Capitol Hill and investor at In-Q-Tel who is now a fellow at FAI while working on startup projects.
We talk about the genesis of the playbook, how 27 different proposals came together, the highlights from each of the playbook’s three sections, and what America’s prognosis is to reindustrialize in the coming years.
This is a big week for us, since we officially re-launched the newsletter on our gorgeous new web address Riskgaming.com, which we are now hosting on Substack. You’ll find all of our archives there, as well as much easier tools to manage your subscription to our Dispatches, Event Announcements, our edited Interviews and after almost a decade, Lux Recommends.We’ve had thousands of new people subscribe and follow us over the past two years, and so I figured this re-launch week was also an opportune time to recirculate one of my absolute favorite episodes of the podcast from three years ago in May 2022. Daniel Kahneman, alongside his long-time research partner Amos Tversky, pioneered the field now broadly known as decision science, exploring the economics, incentives, tradeoffs and psychologies of humans making judgments in moments of uncertainty. Tversky would pass away in 1996, and Kahneman would win the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for much of the work they partnered together on.
In the months after our recording, Kahneman made an extraordinary decision under uncertainty of his own. Concerned about his future risk for dementia, he decided to travel to Switzerland at the age of 90 to pass away through assisted suicide. It was an astonishing final decision by the master of decision-making, and he conducted his final act in secrecy before it was revealed in The Wall Street Journal in a column by Jason Zweig last month.I had the opportunity to host Kahneman alongside World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe for a lunch debate on the current research and trends underpinning risk, bias and decision-making. We merged our four part original series down to two parts. This week, we cover the ideas of pre-mortem as well as dissonance reduction and what circumstances lead people to changing their minds at all.
Europe faces an existential crisis. Long an innovation, technology and manufacturing hub, its greatest companies and wider industries have been hit hard by competition from American tech giants like Google and Chinese manufacturing powerhouses like BYD. Multiple prominent reports have circulated about how the European Union can rapidly respond before its economy struggles even more (this week, Germany announced that its economy will not grow in 2025, for the third year in a row).
Today, Marko Papic makes the case for Europe — even against the tough competition. He’s a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research and a delightful guest with a panoramic perspective on the world’s current geopolitics, past and future economic history and the potential for technology to upend the global order.
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, Marko talks about why he’s bullish on Europe, counters the idea that America is more deregulated, discusses why Europe needs a 28th “digital state” and why national champions are critical for success, describes how Europe can balance between the U.S. and China and finally, offers why he is optimistic that disruptions globally will actually accelerate innovation rather than slow it down.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by George Ko
Something is rotten in the state of the internet. Social networks that were once meant to be entertaining diversions have become riven with vituperative political combat that leaves all but the most blinkered acolytes running for the safety of a funny YouTube channel. Bots swarm through the discourse, as do trolls and other bad actors. How did we let such a crucial communications medium become enshittified and can we build something else in its stead?
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Renée DiResta. She is a leader in the field of internet research and is currently an Associate Research Professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown. She’s written recently on the surges of users migrating from one internet platform to another, as well as on the future of social platforms in the age of personal agentic AI.
Today, the three of us talk about how social networks like X, Reddit, Bluesky and Mastodon are each taking new approaches to mitigate some of the dark patterns we have seen in the past from social media. We then talk about how the metaphor of gardening is useful in the course of improving the internet, and finally, how private messaging spaces are increasingly the default for authentic communication.Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by George Ko
The markets have massively gyrated the past few weeks as hourly pronouncements from the White House and Mar-a-Lago seize investors with terror or relieve them of stress. At the heart of the vociferous debate around tariffs and trade is nothing less than the future economy of the United States. What should be built here? What should we outsource? Who pays for that new economic structure?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Josh Zoffer. Josh was formerly special assistant to President Biden for economic policy, and today, he’s a principal at Clocktower Ventures. He’s penned a number of recent op-eds on trade policy and global interconnectedness (as well as one on the rise of metaverses).The three talk about all of the news this past week around tariffs, what kind of manufacturing we want in America, why globalization remains critical, the challenges of administrability, workforce development and finally, why it is so hard for governments to take on high-risk investing in emerging technologies.
With the launch of President Trump’s trade war this week, few countries are more at risk than China. Faced with a sudden and massive expansion of tariffs as well as changes to the de minimis parcel rule, the export-led development model that has led China to great wealth is now under serious threat. What should we learn from the past of U.S.-China relations in order to understand their future?
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Neil Thomas and Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute. Neil is a fellow and researches the elite politics and political economy of China, while Kate is director of the China Climate Hub and Climate Diplomacy. They have written extensively on China’s industrial strategy and foreign relations, and even more notably, they both participated in the launch of our Chinese electric vehicle Riskgaming scenario Powering Up in Washington DC back in December.
We talk about their experiences playing the game, and why processing information overload is a crucial skill, particularly in competitive markets like cleantech. Then we talk about the lessons of China’s manufacturing rise, why America ignored its industrial strategy for so long, and how U.S. policymakers and business leaders can approach the future of the most critical trade relationship in the world.
Chaos is the rule of the day, with markets, companies, governments and individuals being rapidly buffeted by events and change. Technology is exacerbating that chaos by offering asymmetric leverage to more people. On the positive side, technologies like AI and drones can drastically improve the productivity of workers and artists to perform their craft, benefiting us all. But there is a dark side as well: extremists are early adopters of new technologies that afford them the ability to maximize their evil objectives. With so much change in the world, how can we grapple with this new era of asymmetry?Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Colin P. Clarke, the director of research at The Soufan Group and formerly a long-time terrorism analyst at RAND. He has spent years studying terrorist organizations and their thirst for new technologies and new means of financing their activities. His new book on Evgeny Prigozhin and the rise of The Wagner Group will be out later this year. The three talk about how new technologies are changing the threat landscape from terrorism, the changing contours of the so-called crime-terror nexus, why China is increasingly the focus of analysis, and how governments are responding to the increasing leverage of terrorists throughout the world.
Despite centuries of experience designing and playing war games, there is still very little rigorous research on how to evaluate what makes a good game. What’s the design goal? How much should (or even can) a game reflect reality? Are tighter or looser rules more likely to lead to productive learning? Is having fun important? That lack of rigorous analysis has historically stymied the wargaming profession, but a new generation of researchers want to push the field forward.
Today, with both Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner on vacation, we bring back our independent Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss to host David Banks. David is senior lecturer in wargaming at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where his research focuses on the empirical evaluation of war games and how the craft can evolve in the years ahead. He is also the academic director of the King’s Wargaming Network.
Ian and David discuss the antecedents of wargaming, firming up the foundations of the field, why realism isn’t as useful a metric as engagement, why balancing play and realism is so challenging, how to consider internal validity in games and why its important not just to evaluate a game as a whole, but also its constituent parts.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by George Ko
Humans hate uncertainty, which means we are constantly looking for means to narrowly consider the future and its implications. Planning, predicting and debating what’s next may be the mainstay of any organization in the world, but organizations rarely want to confront upcoming existential challenges or radical shifts in strategy. That’s where foresight psychology comes in, with the goal of unearthing our avoidance of tough questions and finding ways to overcome them.
With Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner out on holiday, this is a special episode bringing together our independent Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss and his friend Graham Norris. Norris has a doctorate in organizational psychology and for the past decade, has consulted with all kinds of businesses around the world on his theories of foresight psychology.
Ian and Graham discuss what makes us blind to the future, why psychologists have not been heavily represented in futurism, the difference between individual and organizational approaches to foresight, and why scenario thinking is an important approach to understanding challenges.
AI and democracy are in great tension with each other. AI models are built by a priesthood of research specialists, unmoored from the will of the public. Yet, these very models are increasingly running important parts of the economy and increasingly government. How do we take advantage of these new capabilities without losing control of them?
That’s the debate at the center of our conversation today with Gideon Lichfield, the writer behind the Substack “Futurepolis” and the former editor-in-chief of Wired. Through his recent writings, Gideon has explored what a public option might look like with AI, how participatory democracy can be buttressed by new organizational and technical designs, and the tactical changes needed to make it much easier for government to procure software.
Joined by host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, we first talk about Gideon’s two recent experiences playing our scenarios on the Chinese electric vehicle market and AI deepfakes. Then we pivot to a broader conversation on the future of governance, discussing everything from participatory budgeting and liquid democracy to balancing between technocracy and democracy while remaining optimistic about the future.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by Georg Ko
Amidst the upheaval in Washington, D.C. these days, one of the most notable and controversial decision from the second Trump administration has been the dismantling and closure of the United States Agency for International Development (or U.S.A.I.D.). In addition to funding humanitarian response and global public health initiatives (most notably with HIV/AIDS), the agency has prioritized governance programs all throughput the world. Traditionally, self-interest alone has proven sufficient for helping America’s current and future allies alike.
That’s no longer the case, according to Maany Peyvan, the former senior director of communications and policy at the agency under the Biden administration. He argues that instead of self-interest, we need to recast efforts to help other countries through the lens of charity, emphasizing America’s long-standing leadership as one of the most charitable nations in the world when public and private giving are added together.
We talk about the plight of U.S.A.I.D., what’s happening with the staff, why self-interest no longer has the same purchase over debates on foreign relations as it once did, how technologies like artificial intelligence are transforming aid work, and why grants and finance work side-by-side in helping countries succeed.
There are two sides of America. One is the country’s world-leading innovation centers, which offer the highest salaries and potential wealth creation anywhere in the world. The other is the bleak deindustrialized hinterlands where former mines and factories once dotted the landscape. Here, middle class jobs have been casualized or wiped out entirely, leaving behind a depressing and well-trodden tale of economic loss.
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and the author of the recent essay, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America.” He argues that the decentralized institutions that make America strong are also precisely its most vulnerable feature. Creative destruction is extremely useful in fast-moving fields like software, but is anathema to building an industrial base where capital assets are key. How can America balance between the two without losing both?
We talk about the vagaries of America’s domestic and foreign policies, how to balance decentralization with creating pathways toward greater prosperity, whether America is returning to isolationism and finally, what we can do with left behind regions to return them to prominence and success.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by George Ko
Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success. Despite a burgeoning academic literature studying luck and the occasional theoretical probabilist complaining about Bayesian statistics, we haven’t brought the chance of chaotic complex systems into the classroom, and that’s particularly true in political science and international relations. That should change, and play-based learning offer new forms of education for future generations.
Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Nicholas Rush Smith, director of the Master’s Program in International Affairs at The City College of New York and its Graduate Center. His students graduate into plum assignments across international organizations like the United Nations, and he has been increasingly utilizing simulations and experiential learning to transform how future international civil servants learn their craft.
We talk about Nick’s recent experience playing “Powering Up,” our Riskgaming scenario focused on China’s electric vehicle market. Then we talk about the power of play, how dopamine affects the learning cycle, why losing is the best education for winning, David Graeber’s ideas around the balance between rules and play, and finally, how play-based learning can teach principles used in even the most bureaucratic institutions like the United Nations and the U.S. Army.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Music by George Ko
When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since World War II. Warfare has changed dramatically since then — from first-person view drones to AI-mediated strategic communications, as well as intelligence gathering and operations — and yet, critical continuities remain between Russia’s present and past strategies and tactics.
To learn more, Riskgaming host Danny Crichton interviewed Daniela Richterova, who is Senior Lecturer in Intelligence Studies at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. She has been researching the history and contemporary practices of Russia’s overseas intelligence missions and recently co-authored a paper on how Russia is using a gig-economy model to hire agent-saboteurs in the field, sometimes for as little as a few hundred dollars. This new operational model has allowed Russia to dramatically scale up its attacks on infrastructure and other high-priority targets at minimal cost despite overseas sanctions.
Daniela discusses the continuities in doctrine between the KGB and today’s Russian FSB, how agent training has evolved over the decades, why the gig economy has been so effective for Russia, what Russia seeks to target and why, and finally, the risk calculus and cultural differences between Russian political and espionage leaders and those of other nations.
There’s a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it’s Elon Musk and DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency) or the myriad of chief technology and data officers across all levels of government, the hope is that technology can enhance productivity and minimize errors, offering a better experience with government for all Americans.
Few people have the wealth of experience on this front than our guest today, Christine Keung. She has a tech industry background from Dropbox and her current role as a partner at J2 Ventures, but also a lengthy tenure across party lines, from working in China with Ambassador Max Baucus, to becoming the Chief Data Officer of San Jose, California, to helping launch the Paycheck Protection Program at the Small Business Administration.
Alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming Director of Programming Laurence Pevsner, we talk about her recent experience playing Powering Up — our Riskgaming scenario on the Chinese electric vehicle market — her experiences in government and the challenges of modernization, and then finally, we turn to DeepSeek and the U.S.-China competition that has splashed across the front pages the past week.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the Antarctic Treaty. Then there’s the decline of the information commons, where paywalls increasingly move critical news and data out of reach of citizens.
In short, the global commons is losing primacy. Friend of the podcast Scott Bade highlighted this theme for geopolitical strategy firm Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report, and we decided to follow up with our own Riskgaming conversation. So Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner teamed up to talk through the global commons and what’s endangering it.
We discuss the privatization and securitization of the commons, how post-World War II institutions are buckling under new pressures from rising powers, why technology is both helping and hurting, and finally, what America can do as a nation to stay open under threat.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations in the years ahead?
That’s where Isaac Stone Fish comes in. He’s the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, a data and research company that helps companies and regulators understand and reduce alternative forms of risk. He’s particularly noted for his China expertise, and his firm publishes the SR250 ranking, which highlights the largest American companies with the deepest ties with China, encompassing everything from financing and supply-chain interlinkages to public communications.
Fish joins host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner to talk about Trump’s imminent arrival, why Ford is the most China-entwined company in the U.S., how China overtook the U.S. in electric vehicles, why American defense contractors are surprisingly engaged in China trade, why we might already be at war with China, how CEOs are managing these new strategic risks and finally, what the biotech and social media industries must do going forward in a more fractured world.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the late 2010s crypto craze drew insane levels of capital into new markets, proceeded to overheat them, and then vaporized everything — leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Is there a more positive way of looking at these feverish moments of economic activity though, one that accounts for progress?
That’s the question at the heart of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber’s new book Boom from Stripe Press. They argue that far from being a destructive force, booms are in fact the critical ingredient needed to induce change in companies, institutions and people. For the low price of the dot-com bubble, we got some of the world’s greatest and more valuable companies, whose worth dwarfs the original cost of the bubble by multiples. Progress can be brought forward in time by the exuberance of these heady eras.
Host Danny Crichton talks with Byrne and Tobias about what booms are and what they do, how economic progress is triggered through business cycles, the cultural spillovers of periods of change, why we should stop being concerned about the scarcity of capital and how to avoid zero-sum thinking in the economics of growth.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
It’s been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes this year across our main show and The Orthogonal Bet sub-series with Sam Arbesman (which we will have more to share next year!). We’ve had technologists, spies, policymakers, CEOs, authors, artists and all around renaissance wunderkinds on the show this year, and so we wanted to take a step back and highlight the best moments of some of our episodes. With host Danny Crichton narrating, here’s the best 11 moments from 2024 as we head into the holidays.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
