In this episode, we examine an unsettling mix of economic signals: a seemingly benign inflation print, rumblings in the banking system reminiscent of the pre-crisis era, the first major wave of layoffs, and growing dissent at the Federal Reserve. Markets greeted the latest CPI release with enthusiasm. Yet the details tell a darker story. The dubiously calculated shelter component has become a source of disinflation. Stripped of this measure, consumer prices rose faster than expected. At the same time, liquidity strains are re-emerging. On Wednesday, a record number of banks tapped the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, a sign that funding pressures are tightening despite official reassurance. Meanwhile, a growing list of firms including UPS, Amazon and Target have announced large layoffs, suggesting that the post-pandemic “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium may be giving way to a harsher “low-hire, high-fire” regime. Finally, disquiet is spreading within the Federal Reserve itself. As policymakers diverge over the timing and scale of future easing, market participants betting on a December cut and several more in 2026 may be disappointed.

In this episode, we take a different tack. We begin with the latest inflation figures, which offer little comfort to policymakers, before turning to the our bear case for the equity markets. From the pandemic-era flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the abrupt tightening that followed in 2022, the economic pendulum has swung with unusual violence. Now, as higher rates bite, the data point to a steady loss of momentum: hiring is slowing, corporate profits are softening, and consumers—once flush with savings—are beginning to retrench. The question is not whether the economy is cooling, but how sharply it will do so.

In this episode, we dissect the latest Beige Book, which paints an increasingly uneven portrait of the American economy. Reports from the Federal Reserve’s districts point to softening retail demand, particularly among lower- and middle-income households, and to mounting strains in sectors such as agriculture, energy and transportation. We also examine the slide in the shares of business development companies—a bellwether for credit conditions in the lower reaches of corporate America—and the mounting allegations of fraud surrounding Zions Bank and Western Alliance. Together, these developments suggest that financial stress is spreading beyond the obvious fault lines.

While the government shutdown has temporarily silenced the flow of official macroeconomic data, other warning lights are flashing red. High-yield spreads are widening, loan-loss provisions are climbing across the banking sector, and negative revisions to corporate profits continue to erode confidence. Roughly a third of industries are already in recession—a sign that the slowdown is more pervasive than headline figures suggest. Against this backdrop, the question is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will act, but whether it is already too late.

In this episode, we discuss the weakness in the ADP report, Challenger Report, and JOLTS report in the context of the overall macroeconomic backdrop.

Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have struck markedly different notes from Jerome Powell’s message last week, underscoring the policy uncertainty that continues to shadow the economic outlook.

In this episode, we unpack the latest FOMC meeting, the shifting dynamics in housing, Dow Theory signals, and the surge in margin borrowing. The Fed appears poised to cut rates three times in 2025, and for now, fears about its independence remain overblown. Yet the market backdrop is uneasy: margin debt and equity indices have both reached record highs, a pairing that has historically preceded sharp sell-offs.

Dan joins us again to discuss the implications of the massive negative revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025. In addition, we discuss recent rising CPI figures and the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve; namely, the conflict in its inflation and employment mandates.

We trimmed the portfolio’s risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A succession of weaker economic releases has diminished the prospective reward, while this week’s signs of labor-market softness have further underscored the case for caution. Although the FederalReserve may yet avert a recession, the slowdown is palpable. Thus, we are “dousing the spinnaker” and positioning for a more unsettled, and potentially more volatile, course ahead.

We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier. Our conversation ranges from the fragility of credit markets to the tell-tale canaries in the coal mine that may yet shape monetary policy. They are surely among the concerns weighing on Mr. Powell as he calibrates his next move. Enjoy!

In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest macro-oriented high yield strategy in the world. He also happens to be Mike's Dad. In this episode, Mike and Dan have a father-son chat on the the latest inflation figures, the current tension between inflation and growth in the economy, and what we believe lies ahead in the markets . Enjoy!

This week, we discuss the negative revisions to payrolls, higher student loan delinquencies, and latest GDP figures, and how the glut of negative news is impacting our market views.

In Episode 49, we discuss recent housing data pointing to a deteriorating outlook.

We discuss the recent CPI and PPI releases, lower universal tariff threats, and red flags in the Beige Book, housing market, and credit market.

This week we chat about mixed jobs numbers out for May and June and what the Fed Minutes tell us about their likely future actions.

This episode we talk about the US equity market recovery vs Europe and Asia. We also go into inflation numbers released this week and other consumer spending metrics over the last few months.

This week we chat about May inflation numbers, consumer confidence improving, and the interesting anomaly in Israel's strike on Iran.

This episode we talk about all the jobs numbers out this week as well as the Beige Book and the surprising Mag7 Q1 earnings.

This week we chat about consumer confidence, GDP forecasts, and the latest on inflation.