In The Tranches of Structured Finance

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In The Tranches of Structured Finance

dv01

21 episodes

1 week ago

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into the auto finance market—from the recent headlines surrounding Tricolor’s bankruptcy to the broader trends shaping credit performance and origination behavior. The conversation begins with Tricolor as a case study in data integrity and verification failures, not credit weakness, before widening to examine insights from the CFPB and Experian’s State of the Auto Market Report. Vadim explores how auto originations are skewing toward older, higher-cred...

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In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into the auto finance market—from the recent headlines surrounding Tricolor’s bankruptcy to the broader trends shaping credit performance and origination behavior. The conversation begins with Tricolor as a case study in data integrity and verification failures, not credit weakness, before widening to examine insights from the CFPB and Experian’s State of the Auto Market Report. Vadim explores how auto originations are skewing toward older, higher-cred...

Show more...

Episodes (20/21)

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Under the Hood: Auto Market Performance, Origination Trends, and the Lessons from Tricolor

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into the auto finance market—from the recent headlines surrounding Tricolor’s bankruptcy to the broader trends shaping credit performance and origination behavior. The conversation begins with Tricolor as a case study in data integrity and verification failures, not credit weakness, before widening to examine insights from the CFPB and Experian’s State of the Auto Market Report. Vadim explores how auto originations are skewing toward older, higher-cred...

1 week ago

31 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Beneath the Headlines: What TransUnion & Fed Data Reveal About Household Health

In this episode, Vadim takes a wide-angle look at U.S. household finances, combining the latest TransUnion credit trends with the Federal Reserve’s Distribution of Financial Accounts ("DFA"). He unpacks how early 2024’s spike in delinquencies has given way to broad improvement, why certain regions like Utah, DC, and Texas are worth watching, and what’s really behind shifts in credit card balances and limits. Vadim also examines the Fed’s puzzling real estate valuations, the migration from ban...

2 months ago

40 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Behind the Data: Credit Trends, Refinance Realities & the Return of Second Liens

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim revisits the standout questions from dv01’s recent consumer credit webinar with Jefferies, Upgrade, and Prosper—digging deeper into the state of the consumer, credit performance trends, origination behavior, and refinancing dynamics. Vadim also introduces dv01’s new Closed-End Seconds Benchmark, spotlighting its relevance in today’s housing affordability environment. Tune in for insights on: The correlation between origination vo...

3 months ago

30 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Housing Affordability, Insurance Woes, and the First-Time Buyer Surge

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into dv01’s latest insights on the housing market, with a focus on affordability metrics and what they signal for both borrowers and investors. Vadim breaks down: How dv01’s unique affordability metric—covering over 2,900 U.S. counties—captures real-time changes in mortgage costs, taxes, and insurance.Why Florida’s affordability improved despite an ongoing insurance crisis, and what that reveals about regional volatility.The powerful link between affor...

5 months ago

32 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

A Data-Driven Look at Consumer Credit in 2025

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim Verkhoglyad breaks down recent credit performance and origination trends across consumer unsecured, subprime auto, and non-QM mortgages. Tune in for insights on: Strong recovery in consumer unsecured performancePlateauing trends in subprime auto, with rising loss severityWorsening impairments in non-QM despite limited lossesMinimal credit impact from recent wildfires and hurricanesGet the latest data-driven view on what’s really ...

6 months ago

36 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Consumer Credit Loan Performance Update

In the latest podcast episode, Vadim covers notable improvements in consumer unsecured loan performance, recovery patterns in subprime auto, and challenges in the Non-QM mortgage market. He discusses the influence of seasonal trends, regional performance disparities, and how tightening credit standards impact both new and seasoned loans. Tune in to understand the current credit landscape, learn which sectors are thriving, and find out how today’s trends could affect future loan performance.Su...

11 months ago

36 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Housing Update: Affordability, Insurance, and Market Stability

In today's episode, Vadim provides a comprehensive discussion on housing affordability, the impact of rising insurance premiums, and a surprising increase in mortgage counts, despite economic headwinds. Vadim highlights essential insights on LTV and DTI ratios in recent originations, alongside the evolving role of insurance costs on market stability, especially in regions like Florida. As prepayment rates reach near-record lows and delinquency rates hold steady, Vadim unpacks why this might s...

1 year ago

33 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Decoding Debt Data: Why U.S. Households Are Stronger Than You Think

In this episode, Vadim dives into the financial condition of U.S. households, exploring the nuances behind household balance sheets, consumer debt, and the surprising resilience of Gen Z and millennials. He unpacks the contrast between media narratives and the actual financial positions of American households, highlighting the significant growth in net worth, especially among lower-income groups. The discussion covers a wide array of topics, including housing costs in the U.S. compared to oth...

1 year ago

50 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Decoding TransUnion Data: Credit Cards, Auto Loans, AEP & More

Vadim examines TransUnion data to discuss YoY trends in credit cards and auto loans. While subprime borrowers continue to drive overall DQ rates and credit card growth, regional analysis reveals significant weaker performance in certain states. In this episode, Vadim dives into a valuable metric, Average Excess Payment ("AEP"), which is an indicator of a consumer's ability to manage debt payment as it represents consumers who do not pay their credit card bills in full yet pay beyond the minim...

1 year ago

47 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Unpacking the Housing Market: Affordability, Insurance, and Trends

Vadim dives into housing affordability, focusing on the impact of rising insurance payments—particularly in Florida, the impact of FEMA's updated risk scores on insurance premiums trends, mortgage volume and the implications of low existing home sales and inventory levels, and overall mortgage performance behavior.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and...

1 year ago

32 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Special Guest: Matt Edgar, Founder & CEO, Edgar Matthews & Co

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Matt Edgar, Founder & CEO of Edgar Matthews & Co, a full-service, independent investment and merchant bank focused on the middle market.The pair discuss market observations in asset-backed lending, focusing on the complementary roles of private and public asset-based lending markets, and the increasing interest from insurance investors in asset-based finance. Key points include the robust activity in consumer installment lending and BNPL platf...

1 year ago

25 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Consumer Credit Loan Performance Update (Data as of March 2024)

In the latest podcast episode, we explore a novel method of analyzing government debt, highlighting how, despite rising federal debt, the aggregate U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP fell from 2006 to 2019 and only increased in 2020 due to substantial pandemic-related fiscal measures. This holistic perspective also reveals that while U.S. asset values have significantly outpaced debt growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains only slightly above its 2006 levels, at 236%. We also discuss trends ...

1 year ago

29 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Special Guest: Adelina Grozdanova, Co-Founder and Head of the Investor Group at Upgrade

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Adelina Grozdanova, Co-Founder of Upgrade, to discuss all things consumer credit and the American consumer. Discussion includes, factors behind the dramatic volume declines of unsecured personal loans, how the record-high US credit card rates create opportunity to refinance using installment loans, and how Upgrade is positioning itself as a leading fintech by offering multiple products, including auto.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the...

1 year ago

53 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Consumer Credit Loan Performance Update (Data as of Sept 30, 2023)

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through September 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages.Cited Research dv01: Non-QM Performance Report, October 2023dv01: Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto Performance Report, October 2023Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going...

1 year ago

40 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Special Guest: Justin Mahoney, Founder and Senior Portfolio Manager at Shelter Growth Capital Partners

The RMBS market, specifically Non-QM, is showing signs of recovery and growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid rising rates, Non-QM is facing unique challenges and opportunities not present in the broader mortgage market. The upswing in mortgage rates has led the origination channel to shift its focus towards Non-QM, providing a favorable tailwind for future sector growth and market penetration. On the flip side, delinquencies are beginning to rise in Non-QM unlike the broad mortgage mar...

2 years ago

58 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Consumer Credit Loan Performance Update (Data as of June 30, 2023)

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through June 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages, including:The Consumer Unsecured sector continue to tighten its credit box, with more lending going to borrowers with higher creditworthiness.Performance of Subprime Auto loans continues to worsen.Delinquencies for Non-QM Mortgages are at near-record lows.Cited Research dv01: Non-QM Performa...

2 years ago

29 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Housing Affordability: Portfolio and Risk Valuation

Understanding the factors driving regional affordability—supply and demand imbalances, zoning restrictions, building regulations, economic opportunities, culture, and climate—is crucial for portfolio and risk valuation. In this episode, dv01 argues that affordability challenges are far more regionally concentrated than they've ever been.Cited Researchdv01: Housing Affordability and Portfolio RiskBlackKnight: Mortgage MonitorRedFin: Housing Market DataSubscribe to our free research to stay up-...

2 years ago

31 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Special Guest: John Hecht, Managing Director of Equity Research—Specialty Finance at Jefferies

Did you know that in Q1-2023, stocks for all the large credit card companies went up, despite missing EPS on higher provisions? In today’s episode, Vadim welcomes special guest John Hecht, a managing director at Jefferies, to discuss Q1-2023 trends, if the banking crisis has dented consumer credit growth, analysis that the market is misunderstanding, and more.Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact sales@dv01.co to learn how dv01 data can help you under...

2 years ago

48 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Gen Z's Money Moves: Examining Gen Z's Economic Environment

Did you know nearly 50% of outstanding student debt is a result of graduate school? In this episode, dv01 examines the debt and wage trends across age cohorts—namely Gen Z and Millennials—highlighting wage growth, homeownership, and student debt levels. Cited research is found below.Cited Research:dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest GenerationsNY Fed: Center for Microeconomic DataFederal Reserve: Distributional Financial AccountsInstitut...

2 years ago

31 minutes

In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Recapping Consumer Credit Loan Performance

In this episode, dv01 evaluates consumer credit performance across Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Trends are predominately over the past 12 months, but also highlight historical performance and some origination trends. Cited research is found below.Cited Research:dv01: The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest Generationsdv01: Performance of Consumer Unsecured & Subprime Auto LoansNew York Fed: Quarterly Repo...

2 years ago

45 minutes