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In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes.
Main topics covered
Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first
Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns
Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities
Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices
Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space
AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops
Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets
Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model
Tail hedging and the role of long volatility
Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate risk
Timestamps
00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger
03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers
08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets
14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms
19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products
24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999
31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals
38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead
52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism
54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies
1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out.
Topics covered:
Why big tech’s CapEx spending has exploded and how much they’re investing
The trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spending
Historical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildouts
Why companies that invest heavily often underperform
How the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses
The risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AI
Why the AI race resembles a prisoner’s dilemma
Which layers of the AI stack may capture long-term value
How early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returns
Where investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI names
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom
03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles
05:00 Scale of big tech’s CapEx spending
07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure
08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks
11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI
14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics
17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles
18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance
21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends
22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure
26:00 How the Mag 7’s business model is changing
30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities
34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk
37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner’s dilemma
40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all?
43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras
47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption
48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries
50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure
54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters
In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios.
Main topics covered
• How Nancy’s experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy
• Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it
• Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios
• The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility
• How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection
• The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation
• Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge
• The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations
• Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today
• The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility
• How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio
• The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income”
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets
02:15 Nancy’s background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility
05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income
06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it
10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages
11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life
13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges
17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure
18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations
21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion
25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank
26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility
28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio
31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk
32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL
33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US
36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with
37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook
In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline.
Topics covered:
The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followed
Why current U.S. valuations don’t necessarily mean an immediate crash
How global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500
The role of international diversification and real assets in portfolios
Trend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers”
The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategies
The permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance it
Concentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadership
The parallels (and limits) between today’s market and the dot-com bubble
AI’s potential role in investing and portfolio management
The behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sell
Lessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiency
The future of markets, retail investors, and Meb’s upcoming book “Time Billionaires”
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and market performance context
04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher?
09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook
12:00 International and value investing opportunities
15:00 Trend following and managed futures
19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification
25:00 Concentration risk and market structure
28:00 AI’s impact on investing
32:00 Comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble
37:00 The long-term case for value investing
41:00 When to sell and investor behavior
45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution
51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing
57:00 What’s changed most for investors over 20 years
59:00 Meb’s new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts
Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.
Topics covered:
Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework
Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient
Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios
The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch
Global diversification and the case for international stocks
How to think about inflation protection and real assets
The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders
Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk
Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
03:00 Controlling the controllables
06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy
10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank
15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel
18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard
22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges
30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy
34:00 Global competition and diversification
38:00 Inflation protection and real assets
41:30 The reality of AI and productivity
47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7
52:00 Valuations and long-term returns
55:45 Lessons for investors
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement.
Topics covered:
Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategy
The four stages of the index investor’s education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicity
How financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexity
The case for international diversification and how to size it correctly
The pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselves
Why passive investing isn’t “too big” and why indexing works over time
How to think about valuations and investor psychology
Tips, gold, and how to think about inflation protection
Rethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulas
The one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors today
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor
03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool
07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity
13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors
18:00 Should investors own international stocks?
23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing
32:00 Is passive investing too big?
34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations
37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments
39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold
46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable
49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies
57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.
Topics covered:
How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market’s main driver
Why investors must adapt to desynchronized global cycles
The impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on markets
Housing as the next driver of the business cycle
How AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth wave
The maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season”
Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectively
The risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policy
The cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investing
Protecting human capital in the age of AI and automation
Timestamps:
00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals
06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world
12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle
16:39 Crypto’s evolution and fiscal dominance
23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market
29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy
36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes
52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework
58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts
In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today’s most important macro themes.
Main topics covered:
Why forecasts don’t work and what investors should do instead
The real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictions
How AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winners
How to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risks
When and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuation
Lessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidence
The 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returns
The risks of concentration in the S&P 500
Hidden costs of passive investing and large index funds
When index and factor funds get too big to trade efficiently
Value investing, interest rates, and inflation relationships
The evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic Formula
How to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatility
The opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval funds
Why illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudently
Behavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessons
Timestamps:
00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility
03:30 Why Larry doesn’t make macro predictions
07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth
11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be
14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little”
18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms
21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns
24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk
28:30 Why diversification still matters
30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds
38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure
41:00 Is passive investing too big?
42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships
45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett’s alpha
51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy
54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks
58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns
01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified
Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.
Main topics covered:
Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets
The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030
Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer
The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment
Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era
Why traditional recession indicators have failed
How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization
Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching
Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking
The quant factors that matter most today
ETF factor exposures and hidden risks
How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets
Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market
Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors
Timestamps:
00:00 What really drives equity investing
03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach
05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,000
08:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity
09:00 The three major bear cases
14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble
18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient
20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles
23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins
24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook
29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard
32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics
37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work
41:00 Key quant factors to watch
43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures
46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation
51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage
55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts
Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what’s really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro’s “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time.
Main topics covered
Why Ben believes we’re at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007
The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behavior
How private credit has evolved into today’s “shadow banking” system
Flow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentional
The dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lenders
How broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systems
The link between narrative collapse and liquidity crises
Common knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychology
Doom loops between Wall Street and the real economy
How Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signatures
Why gold’s current rally is about safety, not debasement
What investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narratives
Timestamps
0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem
1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory
2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud
6:10 How private credit became today’s shadow banking system
10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional
14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic
18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained
21:00 What happens when narratives collapse
24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands
28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default
33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy
39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different
44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like
48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards
53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection
57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards
1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro
In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF.
Topics covered:
• Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity
• How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends
• The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption
• Doug’s “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs
• How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios
• The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans
• Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom
• The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles
• The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth
• The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta
• Apple’s long-term AI positioning and potential comeback
• Tesla’s valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics
• The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies
• The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation
• Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnology
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and Deepwater’s AI thesis
03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity
08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment
11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers
16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF
19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers
25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment
26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI
28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar
29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta
34:00 Apple’s role and long-term AI potential
39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption
44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions?
49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation
51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies
54:45 Closing thoughts
Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.
Main topics covered:
• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength
• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing
• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment
• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin
• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat
• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity
• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions
• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces
• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business
• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing
• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathaway
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle’s key ideas
02:00 Applying Sun Tzu’s “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett
06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece
12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett’s Apple investment
19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin
22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing
25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity
28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission
32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat
40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment
49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion
50:00 Buffett’s investments in Japan’s trading houses
56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition
61:00 Charlie Munger’s blueprint and Buffett’s strategic genius
64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world.
Topics covered:
• The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt
• How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems
• Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules
• The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing
• The design and diversification of a robust trading universe
• Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run
• Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio
• How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies
• Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems
• The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerous
Timestamps:
00:00 Trading should be hard
02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program
08:00 Evolution of trend following systems
12:00 The psychology of following rules
16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test
20:00 Could the Turtle program work today?
23:00 Building a diversified trading universe
28:00 Risk management and position sizing
32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios
38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification
41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs
45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures
48:00 Where the strongest trends are now
52:00 AI and systematic investing
53:30 The internal truths of trend following
56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with
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Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.
Main topics covered
• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime
• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal
• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic
• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today
• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”
• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again
• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further
• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend
• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world
• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation
• What could ultimately break the debasement regime
Timestamps
00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset
07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel
10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook
16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals
21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment
29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt
34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,000
38:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps
41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations
45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position
50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era
54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics
57:13 What could end the debasement regime
59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals
Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.
Topics covered:
Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing
Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows
How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops
Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth
The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets
Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments
How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction
Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and setup
02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing
14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained
22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom
33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy
39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios
40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment
47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty
48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation
56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt
01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next
01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital
In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S.
Topics covered:
The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms
Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years
The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar
Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets
How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process
The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership
Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon
Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected
The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios
Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression
Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”
The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities
Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”
Timestamps:
00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk
02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets
06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity
08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump
12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline
15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation
20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility
26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation
36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities
42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance
47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook
51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity
56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy
01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment
01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.
Main topics covered:
• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum
• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process
• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction
• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase
• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples
• Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations
• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning
• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration
• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar
• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving
• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup
04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators
07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages
10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals
12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market
15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq
18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade
20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation
23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy
25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups
27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning
29:00 Financials and recent weakness
31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy
34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration
37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals
41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels
43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis
46:20 The dollar index and its key levels
48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds
51:10 Final takeaways and closing
In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.
Topics covered:
How AI is driving a new era of electricity demand
The evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables
Why electricity is becoming the new oil
The scale of power needed to support AI and data centers
Opportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storage
The resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gas
How U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy markets
Energy infrastructure and why it offers steady returns
How the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunity
Risks and resilience of the U.S. power grid
Lessons from 30 years investing in energy
Timestamps:
00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand
02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth
08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era
11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need
15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?
20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges
25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation
32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities
36:00 Inside Tortoise’s new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)
43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays
45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations
49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid
52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy’s importance
