In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management.
Topics Covered:
The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it’s getting worse
How stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposure
Why traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving it
Understanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversification
The mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategies
How exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidity
Using ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraints
Real estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirement
Costs, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund model
Regulatory and legal perspectives behind the structure
Practical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positions
How to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions
What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next.
Topics Covered:
Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters
The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders
How community rises from conflict during fourth turnings
Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism
The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises
Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation
How institutions are built—and who builds them
Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?
Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies
What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it
In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered:
Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted
The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms
How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level
Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior
The four traits of resilient global firms
Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions
International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks
Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world
In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you.
Topics Covered:
What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperform
How to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capital
Why rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilience
Liquidity fragility and how it amplifies market moves
Retail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bid
Structural risks created by passive flows and policy shifts
Monetizing volatility spikes
The psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisions
Why volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect
Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,
Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.
Topics Covered:
Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data
The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China
Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading
What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us
How margin compression could trigger job cuts
The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off
Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points
Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives
Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills
Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investment strategy.
Topics Covered:
What momentum investing is and how it differs from growth investing
The mechanics of cross-sectional momentum and relative strength
Common misconceptions about momentum strategies
How fundamental data can enhance momentum strategies
The significance of continuous vs. dynamic momentum
Portfolio construction, sector concentration, and rebalancing approaches
Momentum performance across different market caps and geographies
The risk profile of momentum vs. value strategies
Momentum crashes - what they are and how to mitigate them
Tax efficiency of momentum strategies
The impact of passive investing on momentum strategiesOptimal factor combinations for diversified portfolios
Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom.
Topics Covered:
Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of the dollar despite possible short-term strengthHow financial wars have replaced hot and cold wars in global politicsThe future of US debt and potential parallels to past debt crisesJared's "Awesome Portfolio" strategy: 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, 20% real estateWhy international stocks may continue to outperform US equitiesPossible recession indicators and economic headwindsFed policy predictions and why rates might not be cut as expectedThe value of sentiment indicators and Twitter as a market research toolWhy free trade benefits economies and the risks of protectionist policies
When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.
Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others.
Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quick
The importance of base rates in investment decisions
Portfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychology
Viewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehicles
The value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment process
Diversification across asset classes, strategies, and time frames
The benefits of simplicity in investment approaches
The psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome them
Compounding as a fundamental wealth-building tool
The danger of performance chasing and overconfidence
The value of a rules-based investment process
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything.
Topics Covered:
Andrew's early career at Goldman Sachs and how basketball gambling on the trading floor taught him market-making skills
The trading operations and technology at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in the early 1990s
Working dynamics with Bernie Madoff's sons, Mark and Andy, and office politics
How Andrew was invited to invest in Madoff's "exclusive" fund
Andrew's decision to leave Wall Street at the height of his success
The devastating moment Andrew learned about Madoff's arrest and the Ponzi scheme
The additional ordeal of facing clawback lawsuits after losing his investment
Transitioning to academia and finding a more fulfilling career path
Lessons for investors and finance students about risk, technology, and communication
Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers practical wisdom for navigating today's uncertain investment landscape.
Topics Covered:
The difference between the 2008 financial crisis and today's economic challengesWhy 2023-2024 saw the most narrow stock market since the Great DepressionThe potential impact of tariffs as "the biggest tax on consumers in our professional careers"Why investors should err on the side of value over growth in the current marketHow US debt levels impact interest rates and economic competitivenessThe role of the Federal Reserve as a lagging rather than leading indicatorWhy gold serves as an effective hedge against uncertaintyBernstein's skeptical view on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin valuationThe limitations of index funds in today's market environmentTimeless advice for wealth building: stick to fundamentals and avoid "get rich quick" thinking
In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times.
Main Topics Covered:
Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose.
Main Topics Covered:
The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners.
The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations.
The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven."
Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility.
The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth.
How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset.
The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value.
Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls.
The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing.
Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.
In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success.
Main Topics Covered:
Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times.
The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity.
Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs.
Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs.
How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter.
The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits.
Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets.
Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold.
Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts.
Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks.
Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors.
Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees.
Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity.
An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities.
Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide.
Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.
In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!
Main Topics Covered:
Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”
The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.
The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.
The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.
The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.
Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.
Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.
Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.
Main Topics Covered:
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.
Key topics discussed:
• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth
• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures
• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic
• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation
• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary
• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China
Buy Barry's Book
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In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest."
Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it.
Key topics include:
Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal
How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes
Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages
The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors
Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns
Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing
The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making
Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy
How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income
The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements
Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.
Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.
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In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.
Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.
The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.
Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases.
The conversation includes practical insights on:
Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets
The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process
Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success
How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.
Key topics discussed:
How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors
The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions
Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right
Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK
Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis
The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities
McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.
Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.
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