Why do leaders with vast expert bureaucracies at their fingertips make devastating foreign policy decisions? Tyler Jost, professor at Brown, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his first book, Bureaucracies at War, a fascinating analysis of miscalculation in international conflicts. As we travel from Mao’s role in border conflicts, to Deng’s blunder in Vietnam, to LBJ’s own Vietnam error, a tragic pattern emerges — leaders gradually isolating themselves from their own information gathering systems with catastrophic consequences. Today our conversation covers… How Mao’s early success undermined his long-term decision-making, The role of succession pressures in both Deng’s and LBJ’s actions in Vietnam, The bureaucratic mechanisms that lead to echo chambers, and how China’s siloed institutions affect Xi’s governance, The lingering question of succession in China, What we can learn from the institutional failures behind Vietnam and Iraq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself Chapters 02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling 05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did? 08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations 24:12 Blockades 28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology 43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections 44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack. We discuss… Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones, The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles, Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces, How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield. Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate. Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (⁠https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f⁠) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy. Chapters: 00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama 07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style 24:27 National Defense and International Relations 40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability 48:33 Implications of a Minority Government 01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack. We discuss… Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones, The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles, Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces, How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield. Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate. Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun. 00:00 Venezuela 16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations 34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters 46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy 48:44 Sledge Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover: How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao. Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy. Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s. Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations. Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think. Outtro Music: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Guests today include Michael Horowitz (Penn now, in the Biden years was DAS for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities + Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office) and Lauren Kahn (worked with Michael in the DoD, now at CSET). The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy 00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process 06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Military Engagement 10:38 AI and Nuclear Weapons: A Seductive Analogy 17:47 Nuclear Energy vs. AI: Lessons in Governance 20:02 The Future of AI in Military Operations 31:46 Transforming Military Lessons with AI 37:38 Operational Surprise and Historical Context 45:55 Social Acceptability of Military Technologies 57:59 Ethics and Accuracy in AI Warfare Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tarun Chhabra is Head of National Security Policy at Anthropic, and previously served as the Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Technology and National Security on Biden’s NSC. Today, our conversation covers… Why the US needs to maintain an advantage in the race for AI development against China, Whether the US’s AI industry is prepared for future competition from China, The lawyers vs. engineers debate, and what the US needs to build AI supply chains, How government and industry can work together to across the AI development process. Outro music: Stephen Wilson Jr. - Stand By Me (Live at The Print Shop) (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chrisian Brose is the Chief Strategy Officer at Anduril Industries. He’s been at the forefront of the debate about how America needs to change in order to win a future war against a high-tech adversary like China. He’s the former staff director for the Senate Armed Services Committee and the author of the essential book, The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. We discuss: Why the U.S remains dangerously vulnerable to low-cost drone attacks and what it would take to get serious about defending the homeland, How bureaucratic logjams and budget dysfunction stall America’s adoption of counter-drone and other critical defenses, What the Ukraine war reveals about the future of warfare and what the US has yet to learn from it, Why confidence in American technological superiority is misplaced, and why state-of-the-art weapons may not guarantee a quick or decisive war, How humans will make military decisions in the age of AI. Outro music: Kay Kyser - Praise The Lord And Pass The Ammunition (YouTube Link) Gracie Fields - Thing-Ummy-Bob (That's Going To Win The War) (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Miller (chip wars), Chris McGuire (10 year State Dpt vet, check out the past episode on the feed) and I discuss a big move by MOFCOM to squeeze Trump in advance of their APEC summit. Outtro Music: Paul Simon, Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAb2Mu0CRk4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last week, Jensen Huang said that China is “nanoseconds behind” the US in chipmaking. Is he right? Today, Chris McGuire joins ChinaTalk for a US-China AI hardware net assessment. Chris spent a decade as a civil servant in the State Department, serving as Deputy Senior Director for Technology and National Security on the NSC during the Biden administration and back at State for the initial months of Trump 2.0. Today, our conversation covers: Huawei vs Nvidia, and whether China can compete with US AI chip production, Signs that chip export controls are working, Why Jensen is full of it when he says China is “nanoseconds behind” What sets AI chips apart from other industries China has indigenized, How the US has escalation dominance in a trade war with China, and the significance of BIS’s 50% rule, Chris’s advice for young professionals, including why they should still consider working in government. Outtro Music: Abao Uduli https://open.spotify.com/track/176BwQLW0IGc2mhkkMe0yH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bryan Clark, a former submariner now with the Hudson Institute, joins the show! Outtro speech: George C. Scott's rendition of Patton's speech Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At long last, Jeff Alstott, the fairy godfather of DC AI policy, joins the show. He’s the founding director for RAND’s center for technology and security policy, TASP, worked at NSC, NSF and IARPA, and has a PhD in complex networks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

for better or worse, the first ep on chinatalk feed I had to put an explicit tag on... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anthony Vinci, former CTO of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and author of the upcoming book The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, joins as Second Breakfast's first ever guest. Outtro Music: Otis Redding, Something is Worrying Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ughAT80R8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jasmine Sun of https://jasmi.news/ and Nathan Lambert of https://www.interconnects.ai/ discuss a wide variety of topics of interest around AI and culture. Outtro Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujC4p7mf0XE&ab_channel=Release-Topic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

back at it again Outtro Music: Boys of the Old Brigade, Wolf Tones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoQBXgbVVT4&ab_channel=rebelsongs Book: https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/child-soldiers-in-the-western-imagination/9780813563701/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword. In today’s conversation, we discuss… Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing, Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making, The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders, How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects, Nate’s hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term. Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Uncle Sam is taking a bite out of companies left and right. Today, we’re going to focus on MP Materials — the Trump administration’s answer to China’s restrictions on rare earth material exports to America. To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Daleep Singh, former Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, now with PGIN; Arnab Datta, currently at Employ America and IFP; and Peter Harrell, former Biden official and host of the excellent new Security Economics podcast. Today, our conversation covers: Why critical mineral markets are broken, How China achieved rare earth dominance, The history of rare earth mining and refinement in the US, What the MP Materials deal does, and whether it can succeed, The key ingredients for successful industrial policy, with case studies including a Strategic Resilience Reserve, a US sovereign wealth fund, and support for Intel. Outro music: Ornaments Of Gold - Siouxsie And The Banshees (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices