Bu çalışma, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun 1912-1913 Balkan Savaşları sırasında Doğu Ege Adaları’nı kaybetmesinde deniz gücünün zayıflığının belirleyici rolünü incelemektedir. Yunanistan'ın donanma üstünlüğü, Osmanlı’nın askeri hareket kabiliyetini kısıtlamış ve stratejik adaların işgalini kolaylaştırmıştır. Averof zırhlısının liderliğindeki Yunan Donanması, Osmanlı donanmasının etkisiz kalmasına neden olmuş ve Ege'deki güç dengelerini değiştirmiştir. Bu tarihi süreç, günümüz Türkiye’sinin deniz stratejilerinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, Türk deniz gücünün tarihsel zayıflıklarının güncel stratejik doktrinlerle nasıl telafi edilmesi gerektiğine dair önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.
Bağlantı : https://avim.org.tr/tr/Analiz/EGE-DEKI-DENIZ-GUCU-BALKAN-SAVASLARI-NDAN-STRATEJIK-DERSLER
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This study revisits the historical context and rationale behind Türkiye’s 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation, emphasizing its legal and humanitarian justifications under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee. Contrary to narratives focused solely on military action, the analysis underscores the systematic marginalization and persecution of Turkish Cypriots that necessitated intervention. Drawing on memoirs of key figures like Rauf Denktaş and Glafkos Clerides, the paper explores the collapse of the partnership state, failed diplomatic efforts, and the enduring impact of the Megali Idea ideology. The operation is framed as a response to existential threats and a pivotal moment in Turkish-Greek-Cypriot relations.
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This study examines Türkiye’s evolving role as a strategic conduit between East and West in the 21st century. Positioned geographically and diplomatically at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Türkiye actively engages in diverse international platforms such as BRICS and the G7. Its contributions to global humanitarian aid, regional stability, and migration management highlight its expanding soft power and geopolitical influence. Türkiye’s multifaceted foreign policy seeks to balance its Eastern and Western ties, positioning the country as a pivotal actor in Eurasian affairs. This dual engagement reflects Türkiye’s ambition to serve as both a regional stabilizer and global interlocutor.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/Turkiye-s-Evolving-Role-as-a-Eurasian-Nexus-A-Balanced-Perspective
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This study critically examines the European Union Institute for Security Studies’ (EUISS) evolving portrayal of Türkiye in its Chaillot Papers. While previous publications characterized Türkiye as a “disruptive” actor in regions such as the Balkans, the latest Chaillot Paper No. 182 marks a notable shift by highlighting Türkiye’s growing soft and hard power as an opportunity for strategic cooperation with the EU. This reassessment reflects broader geopolitical changes and a potential recalibration of EU-Türkiye relations. The analysis underscores the importance of mutual understanding and pragmatic engagement over entrenched confrontation in shaping future regional stability.
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Maritime security profoundly influences state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and economic stability. This study highlights the critical role naval power played during the Balkan Wars (1912-1913), emphasizing how Greece’s naval dominance significantly contributed to the Ottoman Empire's territorial losses in the Eastern Aegean. Greece's effective maritime blockade and strategic island occupations underscore naval superiority's decisive impact. The Ottoman Empire's failure to strengthen its naval capabilities due to internal disagreements and financial constraints further intensified its vulnerability. Historical analysis reveals naval power as a vital component of national defense, illustrating contemporary implications for Türkiye’s maritime strategy and defense policy in the Aegean.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/NAVAL-STRENGTH-IN-THE-AEGEAN-STRATEGIC-LESSONS-FROM-THE-BALKAN-WARS
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This academic analysis explores the enduring strategic significance of the Turkish Straits—a vital waterway connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and a key geopolitical chokepoint. The Straits, acting as a natural bridge between Europe and Asia, are central to Eurasian stability and have historically been a focal point in international strategic considerations. Highlighting Türkiye's role in managing this crucial passage, the analysis underscores the meticulous enforcement of the 1936 Montreux Straits Convention by Türkiye, especially in light of recent geopolitical challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Convention, designed to regulate navigation while ensuring regional security, is depicted as a cornerstone of peace and stability in the region. Türkiye's balanced implementation amidst war underscores its commitment to safeguarding both regional and global security interests. Moreover, the report criticizes attempts by external actors to reinterpret or challenge the Convention's provisions, arguing that such actions threaten to destabilize the established security order. It concludes by emphasizing the Montreux Convention's role as an indispensable regional and global security mechanism, warning against any efforts to undermine its authority or Türkiye's sovereign enforcement rights.
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Geeta Pillai and Nitish Verma's essay critically examines Wikipedia's role as a digital knowledge platform, highlighting the underlying issues of deception and manipulation that affect its credibility. They argue that despite Wikipedia's facade of an open, democratic space, it is susceptible to orchestrated content manipulation by anonymous actors who push specific narratives. These actions compromise the neutrality and factual accuracy of the information presented, leading to a distorted public perception. Furthermore, the authors discuss Wikipedia's reliance on a volunteer editing base that lacks diversity, primarily consisting of Western males, raising concerns about the inclusivity and representativeness of the knowledge it disseminates. Pillai and Verma's analysis is corroborated by the experiences of the Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), which faced targeted misinformation and digital attacks, underscoring Wikipedia's vulnerability to exploitation by vested interests. This brief case study emphasizes the challenges of maintaining trust and authority in the digital age, where the power dynamics of information dissemination significantly impact our collective understanding of the world.
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Geeta Pillai and Nitish Verma's essay critically examines Wikipedia's role as a digital knowledge platform, highlighting the underlying issues of deception and manipulation that affect its credibility. They argue that despite Wikipedia's facade of an open, democratic space, it is susceptible to orchestrated content manipulation by anonymous actors who push specific narratives. These actions compromise the neutrality and factual accuracy of the information presented, leading to a distorted public perception. Furthermore, the authors discuss Wikipedia's reliance on a volunteer editing base that lacks diversity, primarily consisting of Western males, raising concerns about the inclusivity and representativeness of the knowledge it disseminates. Pillai and Verma's analysis is corroborated by the experiences of the Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), which faced targeted misinformation and digital attacks, underscoring Wikipedia's vulnerability to exploitation by vested interests. This brief case study emphasizes the challenges of maintaining trust and authority in the digital age, where the power dynamics of information dissemination significantly impact our collective understanding of the world.
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This analysis explores the European Union's (EU) enlargement policy, focusing on island of Cyprus, the Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. It examines the transition from a framework based on legal principles to one increasingly influenced by political pragmatism and strategic considerations. The study highlights how this shift raises questions about the EU's commitment to its foundational ideals and the consistency of its enlargement process. Greek Cypriot Administration’s accession exemplifies the EU's unprincipled approach amidst complex geopolitical challenges, while the narrative of the Balkans reflects the EU's varied standards and strategic interests. The expedited accession of Moldova and Ukraine further illustrates the EU's shift towards a more responsive and strategically driven policy, contrasting with the experiences of other European aspirants. This analysis critically examines these developments, underscoring the potential long-term implications for the EU's integrity and foundational goals. It probes the consequences of prioritizing political and strategic objectives over legal and structural consistency, particularly regarding the EU's relations with Türkiye and its credibility within the Balkans. The study concludes by contemplating the EU's ability to sustain its role as a beacon of democratic ideals and legal standards amidst the complexities of contemporary geopolitics, urging introspection on the future trajectory of its enlargement strategy and global role.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/THE-EU-S-ENLARGEMENT-PARADOX-POLITICS-OVER-PRINCIPLES
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This analysis explores Türkiye's strategic role in the Black Sea, particularly in the context of the implementation of the 1936 Montreux Convention, against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The analysis examines Türkiye’s decision to deny passage to UK minehunter ships through the Bosphorus, highlighting its adherence to the provisions of the Montreux Convention and efforts to maintain regional stability. It delves into the geopolitical context and Türkiye’s position, scrutinizing its commitment to the Montreux Convention since 1936 and its implications for naval passage control. The paper also presents various international perspectives on naval passage, encompassing viewpoints from the United States, the United Kingdom, Ukrainian, and other international actors, thus providing a multifaceted understanding of the situation. A critical analysis of the strategic importance of naval assets in warfare, particularly the transfer of minehunter ships by the UK to the Ukrainian Navy, is discussed, emphasizing the broader Maritime Capability Coalition. The legal aspects underpinning Türkiye's application of the Montreux Convention are thoroughly examined, including interpretations of minehunters as warships and Türkiye’s regulatory role under the Convention. Furthermore, the paper assesses Ukraine's evolving reliance on international law, especially its previous appeals to the Montreux Convention, and projects the potential for escalation in the Black Sea in 2024. The study concludes by highlighting Türkiye’s as a custodian of regional stability, demonstrating its balanced approach in navigating international treaties and maritime law. This evaluation offers insights into the complexities of international law, diplomacy, and regional security dynamics in the Black Sea region.
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Geçtiğimiz yıl 20 Kasım 2023’te vefat eden Emekli Büyükelçi Bilal Şimşir’i birden fazla ünvanıyla anmak gerekiyor. Türk Tarih Kurumu şeref üyesi olan Büyükelçi Şimşir öncelikle bir araştırmacı tarihçi, akademisyen ve daha sonrasında Büyükelçilik mertebebine ulaşıncaya kadar 38 yıl boyunca Dışışleri Bakanlığında hizmet veren bir diplomattır. Parlak diplomatlık kariyerinin yanısıra, Bilal Şimşir’in Türk tarihçilerinin duayenlerinden biri ve fevkalede üretken bir araştırmacı olduğunun altının çizilmesi gerekir. Osmanlı İmparatorluğu, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti ve Balkanlar’daki Türk varlığına ilişkin farklı ve geniş konu başlıklarını kapsayan 100’ün üzerinde kitabı bulunmaktadır.
Makale Bağlantısı : https://avim.org.tr/tr/Yorum/DIPLOMASI-VE-TARIHCILIKTE-BIR-CINAR-EMEKLI-BUYUKELCI-BILAL-SIMSIR-IN-HATIRASINA
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Uzun süredir çeşitli AVİM analiz ve raporlarımızda detaylı olarak açıkladığımız üzere, Karadeniz'i Akdeniz'e bağlayan tek su yolu olan Türk Boğazları, yüzyıllardır askeri ve ekonomik açıdan stratejik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu boğazlar, Avrupa ile Asya arasında doğal bir sınır oluştururlar. Ancak, aynı zamanda, bu iki kıtayı bir araya da getirirler.
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Karmaşık jeopolitik dinamiklerin hâkim olduğu bu dönemde Türkiye, Birleşik Krallık (İngiltere) ve Ukrayna'nın dâhil olduğu durum, uluslararası antlaşmalar ve stratejik deniz operasyonlarının karşılıklı etkileşimine dair kritik bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır. Bu bölüm, devam eden Rusya-Ukrayna çatışması sırasında Türkiye'nin 1936 Montrö Sözleşmesi'ni uygulamasına odaklanmaktadır. Türkiye’nin uluslararası hukuka bağlılığını ve bölgesel istikrarı koruma çabaları vurgulanarak, Birleşik Krallık mayın tarama gemilerinin Türk Boğazlarından geçişine izin vermemesinin arkasındaki stratejik mantığı incelenecektir.
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Kıbrıs Adası, Balkanlar, Moldova ve Ukrayna örnekleri, Avrupa Birliği'nin (AB) genişleme politikasının dinamik koşulları bağlamında, hukuki ilkeler, siyasi pragmatizm ve stratejik zorunluluklar arasındaki karmaşık etkileşimi ortaya koyan ilginç anlatılar sunmaktadır. Bu analiz, AB'nin genişlemeye ilişkin yaklaşımının karmaşıklığını aydınlığa çıkarmak amacıyla, bu farklı ancak birbiriyle bağlantılı senaryoları incelemektedir.
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Türkiye Cumhuriyeti, 24 Temmuz 1923’te imzalanan Lozan Barış Antlaşması’nın yüzüncü yıldönümünü kutlamaktadır. Bu çok önemli antlaşma, Cumhuriyet'in kuruluş temellerini oluşturmuştur. Tarihsel açıdan önemli olan bu antlaşma, Mustafa Kemal önderliğindeki Milliyetçi Hareket'in, daha önce dayatılan Sevr Antlaşması'nı feshetme ve uygun koşullarda yeni bir anlaşma yapma cesaretini ortaya koymuştur. Lozan Antlaşması, Türkiye'nin çökmüş bir imparatorluktan bağımsız, egemen bir devlete dönüştüğünü göstermiş ve egemen uluslar arasında tanınmasını güvenceye almıştır. Atatürk, "Nutuk" olarak adlandırılan tarihi konuşmasında antlaşmayı, Türk milletine yönelik uzun süredir devam eden komplolara karşı muzafferiyet olarak nitelendirmiştir. Bu başarı, Türkiye'nin egemenliği ve bağımsızlığı için 1919 Amasya Bildirgesiyle başlayan uzun soluklu bir mücadelenin sonucudur. Lozan Barış Antlaşması, bugünkü meydan okumalar ve bölgesel gerilimler göz önüne alındığında, imzalanmasının üzerinden bir asır geçmesine rağmen önemini korumaktadır.
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Bu çalışma, Gelibolu ve Kurtuluş Savaşlarının damgasını vurduğu ve çalkantılı bir çatışma ve ulus inşası dönemi olan 1915-1923 arasındaki yıllarda gerçekleşen ve Türk tarihi bakımıdan önemli yere sahip merasimleri ve dönüm noktalarını incelemektedir. Söz konusu çalışma, bazı ortak çabalarla Türklere ve Türkiye Cumhuriyeti’ne yönetlik bir karalama stratejisinin yürütüldüğünü ve bu stratejinin önemli Türk zaferleri ve Türk Büyük Millet Meclisi’nin kurulması hakkında olumsuz fikirler yaratmaya amaçladığını savunamktadır. Çalışma ayrıca ağırlıklı olarak ABD ve Batı Avrupa’daki belirli lobi ve diaspora grupları öncülüğünde kapsamlı bir “Hristiyan soykırımı” anlatısı oluşturma girişi olduğunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Söz konusu anlatı, tarihsel karmaşıklıkları tehlikeli bir biçimde aşırı basitleştirip çarpıtmakta ve genellikle jeopolitik kazanımlar için kullanılmaktadır. Son olarak, çalışma Ermeni ve Rum lobilerinin Türk-karşıtı hislerin teşvik edilmesindeki önemli etkisine dikkat çekmektedir. Bu çalışma bahis konusu çarpıtmaları ele almakta ve hem nüanslı hem de bağlamsal olarak bilgilendirilmiş akademik değerlendirmeyi savunmaktadır.
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2019 yılında yapılan AVİM analizinde, 2014 Ukrayna çatışması sonrasında Avrupa'daki, özellikle de Avrupa Güvenlik ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı (AGİT) bölgesindeki neredeyse tüm silahların kontrolu rejimlerinin öneminin azaldığı vurgulanmıştı. Bu rejimlerdeki aşınma ABD'nin 2019 yılında Orta Menzilli Nükleer Kuvvetler Antlaşması'ndan (INF) çekilmesi ve Rusya'nın da bunu takip etmesiyle belirgin hale gelmiştir. Bu ortamda, Nükleer Silahların Yayılmasının Önlenmesi Antlaşması (NPT) kapsamındaki nükleer silah sahibi devletler, bölgesel ve küresel güvenliğin sağlanmasında caydırıcılığın önemini savunurken, nükleer silah sahibi olmayan devletler potansiyel bir nükleer silahlanma yarışından endişe duyduklarını ifade etmektedir. ABD ve Rusya arasında 2010 yılında imzalanan ve önemli bir antlaşma olan Yeni Stratejik Silahların Azaltılması Antlaşması (New START) stratejik nükleer varlıklara kısıtlamalar getirmiştir. Ancak bu antlaşma, Rusya'nın 2022 yılında Ukrayna'ya yönelik askeri harekatları sırasında uygulamayı askıya alması nedeniyle engellerle karşılaşmıştır. Bu gelişmeler, yıllarca süren uluslararası işbirliğinin ürünü olan yerleşik silahların kontrolu rejimlerinin zayıflamaya başladığını göstermektedir. Mevcut istikrarsız küresel güvenlik ortamı, çalkantılı zamanların habercisi olup, küresel esenlik bu rejimlerin sadece korunmasında değil, aynı zamanda geliştirilmesinde yatmaktadır.
Makale Bağlantısı : https://avim.org.tr/tr/Analiz/SILAHLARIN-KONTROLU-REJIMLERINDE-ASINMA-DEVAM-EDIYOR
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In the 2019 AVİM analysis, it was emphasized that post-2014 Ukraine conflict, most arms control regimes in Europe, especially within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) area, diminished in significance. This deterioration was evident when the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, a move followed by Russia. Amid this backdrop, while nuclear weapon states under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) maintain the relevance of deterrence in ensuring regional and global security, non-nuclear states express apprehension about a potential nuclear arms race. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a paramount agreement, was signed between the U.S. and Russia in 2010, placing restrictions on strategic nuclear assets. This treaty, however, faced hurdles as Russia suspended its implementation in 2022 during the military actions against Ukraine. These evolutions suggest that established arms control regimes, products of years of international collaboration, are waning. The current unstable global security environment forewarns of turbulent times, and the salvation lies in not only preserving but also enhancing these regimes for global well-being.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/THE-BREAKING-DOWN-IN-ARMS-CONTROL-REGIMES-CONTINUES
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This study investigates the commemorations and milestones significant to Turkish history from 1915 to 1923, a tumultuous period of warfare and nation-building marked by the Battle of Gallipoli and the Turkish War of Independence. This research argues that the concerted efforts represent a strategy to defame the Turks and the Republic of Türkiye, serving as a distraction from the notable Turkish victories and establishment of the Turkish Grand National Assembly. Further, the study uncovers recent attempts to construct an overarching narrative of Christian genocide, led predominantly by certain lobby groups and diaspora factions in Western Europe and the USA. This discourse dangerously oversimplifies and distorts historical complexities and is often manipulated for geopolitical gains. Finally, the analysis highlights the significant influence of the Armenian and Greeks lobby in promoting anti-Turkish sentiment. This paper serves to address these distortions and argues for academic scrutiny that is both nuanced and contextually informed.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/CONCERTED-EFFORTS-TO-DOWNPLAY-THE-MILESTONES-OF-THE-REPUBLIC-OF-TURKIYE-AND-TURKISH-HISTORY Web page: https://avim.org.tr/en
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Republic of Türkiye today (24 July) is proudly celebrating the centennial of the signing of the Lausanne Peace Treaty on July 24, 1923, that laid the groundwork for the foundation of the Republic. In our various past AVİM articles we have drawn attention to the importance of the Lausanne Peace Treaty for the Republic of Türkiye and Turkish history.
Link : https://avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/TURKIYE-PROUDLY-CELEBRATING-THE-CENTENNIAL-OF-THE-SIGNING-OF-THE-LAUSANNE-PEACE-TREATY Web page: https://avim.org.tr/en
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