In this special episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski take you on a deep-dive mixtape journey through the best moments from their past three years of conversations with author and investor Chris Mayer. From the brutal patience required to ride out dead money periods to why the lack of a catalyst might be a feature, not a bug—this episode is packed with timeless investing wisdom. Whether you're chasing a hundred bagger or trying to hold through volatility, Mayer’s philosophy will challenge and inspire you.
🔑 Topics Covered:
Why “dead money” is often harder than drawdowns
The real challenge of holding long-term winners
The myth of catalysts and the power of compounding
How great businesses reveal their edge over time
The emotional toll of patience—and how to cultivate it
Aligning capital with the right investor mindset
What Buffett’s evolution teaches us about reinvestment risk
Why most investors can’t handle uncertainty—and how that creates opportunity
How great investors and great CEOs think in decades, not quarters
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 Intro + Episode Setup
02:07 Dead Money vs. Drawdowns
10:00 Waiting Without a Catalyst
18:15 The Real Test of Holding
25:00 Aligning with Long-Term Capital
35:00 Buffett and Value Investing 2.0
44:00 Management and Short-Term Thinking
50:00 The True Meaning of Patience
54:18 Outro + Closing Thoughts
In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory.
From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture.
🎙️ Topics discussed include:
Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapse
The misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periods
How generational memory loss fuels leadership failure
Why passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial move
Gen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership class
How conflict can become the incubator for lasting community
This is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.
In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience.
We discuss:
Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realize
The danger of mistaking easy markets for safe ones
How structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risks
The behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy times
What history teaches us about mispricings and market resilience
Whether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.
Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs.
🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour.
Topics Covered:
Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan)
The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri)
Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer)
A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian)
Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice)
Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton)
When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler)
The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell)
The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux)
Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater)
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan)
07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri)
11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer)
15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen)
19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian)
23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice)
27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson)
31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton)
34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler)
41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell)
44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux)
48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)
In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values.
Topics Covered:
The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignation
Firsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meeting
Why Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it mattered
Reflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder community
The Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's future
Why more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approach
The role of tradition in building enduring businesses
Personal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding
In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio.
Topics Covered:
Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behavior
The QDIA effect and its unintended consequences
The breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocks
Why international markets continue to underperform
Mike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economy
The real lesson investors should take from all this
What individual investors can realistically do about it
In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.
**Topics Covered:**
* Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement
In this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights.
Topics Covered:
Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore
The market as a political utility and what that really means
The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses
How narratives shape market behavior and prices
The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework
Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference
How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions
In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.Topics Covered:Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymoreThe impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocationRisk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environmentsThe argument for real assets: real estate and commoditiesAn overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profileThe rise of managed futures and how they improve diversificationThe psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternativesCliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-takingHow to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows
In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term success
The myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over time
How to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond money
Aligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticity
Managing other people’s money with care, respect, and humility
Learning from mistakes and the importance of reputation
The priceless value of community and true friendships
Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing,
Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.
Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.
The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.
The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.
Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.
The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.
The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.
In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues.
This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains.
Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.
Main Topics Covered:
Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.
Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.
Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.
National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.
DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.
In this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life.
From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds.
Main Topics Covered:
Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively.
The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them.
Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential.
Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom.
The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time.
How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules.
Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades.
Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow.
The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses.
How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past.
Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.
In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives.
Main Topics Covered:
- Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends
- Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes.
- Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics.
- Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice.
- Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future.
- Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing.
- Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives.
- Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets.
- Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach.
- Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work.
- Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance.
- Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value.
- Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers.
- Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity.
- Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade.
- Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.
In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels.
Main topics covered:
• The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting
• Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times
• The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions
• How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading
• Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following
• The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions
• Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management
• Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen.
They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded.
Topics covered:
• Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years
• Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns
• The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating
• How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities
• The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse
• Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue
• How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance
In this compilation episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler bring you the most valuable insights from our interviews with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds and former head of Ray Dalio's research team at Bridgewater.
🔑 Key Topics Covered:
Markets and Macroeconomic Reality
Elliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of "this time it's different" rarely hold true over longer time horizons.
The "Big or Small" Framework
Learn the powerful yet simple framework Elliott used at Bridgewater to tackle complex problems, including how he assessed the 2008 housing crisis with the straightforward question: "This housing problem, big or small?"
Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic Cycles
Discover why the post-COVID economy behaved differently than many expected and why the Fed's rate hikes didn't crash the economy – Elliott explains the crucial difference between income-driven and debt-driven economic cycles.
True Diversification Beyond 60/40
Elliott challenges conventional portfolio construction, explaining why the traditional 60/40 portfolio worked well only during specific economic conditions of the past 40 years and offers practical advice for genuine diversification in an uncertain future.
Wage Growth and Inflation
Understand the tight relationship between wage growth and inflation, and why inflation can't meaningfully decline while wage growth remains elevated without productivity improvements.
The Fed's Decision-Making Process
Elliott provides insight into why the Federal Reserve appears "behind the curve," explaining how its consensus-driven, backward-looking data approach creates policy delays by design.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, Elliott's analytical frameworks and practical insights will help you think more clearly about markets, economic cycles, and portfolio construction in an increasingly complex financial landscape.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
FOLLOW JACK
FOLLOW MATT
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches.
They explore:
A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggerated
How to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volume
Why Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship between bond yields, supply/demand dynamics, and what it means for investors
Practical insights on AI's impact on productivity and investment research
Why certain market indicators that worked in the past may need updating for today's environment
Warren and Fernando bring data-driven, original analysis to these topics, offering viewers a unique perspective that goes beyond traditional market commentary. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this episode provides actionable insights on current market dynamics and evolving investment frameworks.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
FOLLOW JACK
FOLLOW JUSTIN
FOLLOW MATT
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt and Jack explore key lessons from one of our most popular guests, Cem Karsan. Through selected clips from multiple interviews, they unpack Karsan's unique insights on markets, investing, and risk management. The discussion covers critical concepts including:The fundamental importance of supply, demand, and liquidity in marketsWhy thinking probabilistically is essential for both investing and lifeHow different time frames affect investment decisions and market dynamicsThe impact of options trading on market volatilityA fascinating analysis of election year returns that challenges conventional wisdomPerspectives on retirement and viewing work as an extension of selfWhether you're an active trader, long-term investor, or financial professional, this episode offers valuable frameworks for understanding markets and risk. Jack and Matt break down complex concepts into actionable insights, showing how Karsan's options trading background provides unique perspectives that can benefit investors of all types.
In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment.Key topics covered:Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern eraA novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implications for market valuationsWhy Main Street confidence has remained low despite strong markets, and what this means for investorsHow the Federal Reserve's approach to communication and policy has transformedWhy traditional recession indicators failed in the recent cycleThe conversation features numerous "aha moments" where Paulsen reframes conventional market wisdom in enlightening new ways. His candid insights on what really drives markets and the limited role of policy makers challenge common assumptions about investing.The hosts also explore Paulsen's humble yet profound advice for investors: focus on not disrupting the core 90% of your portfolio while seeking opportunities for outperformance with the remaining 10%. This episode offers valuable perspective for both professional and retail investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.