Ever since US President #DonaldTrump triggered the tariff war, much of our attention has been focussed on India's trouble with its biggest trading partner -- the United States. What has been missed, however, is that India's exports to its other trading destinations have suffered too. In the first five months of this fiscal, April-August, exports to 10 out of the top 20 trading destinations have contracted year on year. If this trend continues, and with the impact of the 50% tariff on exports to the US taking effect from August 27, India's exports will be hit hard. Chances are FY2025-26 may witness a contraction in India's exports, with serious consequences for growth, employment and its currency. I explain the state of play, diving into the latest trade data. #exportimport #globaltrade #trumptariffs #trumptariffsonindia #indiaustrade #trumpnews #indianeconomy #h1bvisa #h1bvisanews #indiausrelations #exportimport #indiaeurope #indiajapan #Indianetherlands #newsanalysis #tradedata #dataanalysis #PiyushGoyal #narendramodi #rajeshmahapatra Like, Share, and SubscribeTwitter - https://x.com/rajeshmahapatraLinkedln - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-mahapatra/Instagram - Rajesh_Mahapatra

Even as India begins to feel the pain of Trump tariffs and a clampdown on #H1B Visas, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno has proposed a new legislation to tax services outsourced by American companies to foreign workers -- Halting International Relocation of Employment #HIRE Act. He has proposed a hefty tax of 25% on the quantum of business outsourced.There may not be any immediate impact as the process of enacting the legislation will be long drawn, but there could be serious consequences in the long run. Once the idea of such restrictive measures have taken roots, these will kick in some form or the other at some point. Corporate advisor and author Srinath Sridharan joins me to explain the intricacies.#H1bVisa #HIREAct #HIREAct2025 #globalcapabilitycenter #gcc #gccnews #infosys #tcs #trumptariffs #trumpnews #berniemoreno #indiausrelations #indiaustrade #usindiatensions #srinathsridharan #piyushgoyal Like, Share, and SubscribeTwitter - https://x.com/rajeshmahapatraLinkedln - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-mahapatra/Instagram - Rajesh_Mahapatra

While Indian Prime Minister #NarendraModi and US President #DonaldTrump posture a friendship in front of the media, the latter continues to hit India with executive orders. The decision is to raise the fee for a H1B Visa to $100k will mostly hurt Indian IT workers who account for the bulk of the H1B Visas that the United States grants every year. India's manufacturing sector has already taken a hit with the reciprocal and penal tariffs total 50% that Trump imposed last month; the latest measures on the H1B visas hit the services economy.In this episode of Tracking Trends, I sit down with eminent public policy expert and former Industries secretary Ajay Shankar to discuss the fallout of this development, and the ramifications for those affected as well as the larger economy.Like, Share, and SubscribeTwitter - https://x.com/rajeshmahapatraLinkedln - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-mahapatra/Instagram - Rajesh_Mahapatra#h1bvisa #h1bvisanews #trumptariffs #immigration #itjobsindia

Nepal is seeing widespread violent protests, triggered by a social media ban following days of political unrest. What may come as a surprise for many has been brewing in the background for some time. The protests, consisting largely of discontent youths, is raising a voice against alleged corruption, nepotism, inequality, and economic uncertainty. In this video we dive deep into the history leading up to this moment, various stakeholders, and what it means for India. Our guest, Professor S.D. Muni, is an expert on Nepal and has been studying the region for many years. If you found the video informative, do Like, Share, and SubscribeTwitter - https://x.com/rajeshmahapatraLinkedln - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-mahapatra/Instagram - https://instagram.com/rajesh_mahapatraFacebook - https://facebook.com/patrashastra#nepal #balenshah #nepalnews #nepalprotest #nepalupdates #genz #balendrashah #strawhatpirates #kpoli #kpolilatestnews #rajeshmahapatra #sdmuni #trackingtrends

Will the GST rate cuts be a game changer?The #GST Council has finally moved to cut the number of tax slabs from 5 to 4 and reduced taxes on a wide range of goods and services, with an aim to stimulate consumption and expenditure. The rate rationalisation will likely bring interim relief to consumers, but it is not clear if these changes would lead to a sustained and equitable revival in demand and in broader economic growth. In this episode of #TrackingTrends, Dhananjay Sinha and I dive deep into the proposed changes in the GST regime.#newgstchanges #gstreforms #gstcouncil #gstrates2025 #nirmalasitharaman #narendramodi #indianeconomy

The United States has entered the war with Iran. American stealth bombers struck Iran's three key nuclear facilities -- Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan -- on Saturday night, in an unprecedented assault that has significantly heightened geopolitical tension in the region. Iran has vowed to retaliate, threatening to attack American interests in the region and shutting down the strait of Hormuz. The consequences of this escalation could be devastating for the world and the global economy, unless it is contained through mediation and dialogue. In this episode of #TrackingTrends, I sit down with India head of the Eurasia Group -- a leading US-based consulting and research firm -- to understand what will likely unfold in the days to come, including the impact that the developments may have on India and its economy.

#TrackingTrends with #RajeshMahapatra ft. #KalyanRamThe Reserve Bank of India on Friday announced a bigger-than-expected cut in its benchmark lending (repo) rate -- from 6% to 5.5%, surprised markets by slashing cash reserve ratio from 4% to 3% to infuse liquidity to the tune of Rs 2.5 lakh crore and announced a sudden pivot to a “neutral” monetary policy stance. While the rate cut was cheered by industry and consumers, the push for liquidity and the about turn on policy stance have stoked new concern. That the liquidity push might have heightened many risks for the banking systems, while the policy shift might undermine RBI's credibility.Veteran financial journalist Kalyan Ram, who keeps a close watch on the central bank joins me to discuss the risks and rewards associated with RBI's latest decisions. Read: https://basispointinsight.com/Story/Home/rbi-s-abrupt-policy-shift-risks-undermining-its-own-credibility_0adc88b52089.html #rbi #rbinews #monetarypolicy #reporate #liquidity #inflation #gdpgrowth

Tracking Trends: #Monsoon arrives early, causes havoc in the northeast with disastrous #floods and #landslides, while northwestern states of Rajasthan and Punjab battle scorching heat. Elsewhere in Delhi and its neighbouring region, frequent #thunderstorms turn the month of May surprisingly pleasant, weather-wise. India's weather as we knew it is changing. I sit down with Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, chief of India Meteorological Department, to understand the multiple factors at work and what these mean for longer-term climate changes and weather forecasting.

In this exclusive conversation, I sit down with Indrani Bagchi, veteran foreign affairs journalist and CEO of the Ananta Centre, to unpack the far-reaching implications of Donald Trump’s tariff strategy through the lens of US domestic politics.We explore how these tariffs are shaping political narratives, and what recent remarks by California Governor Gavin Newsom and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signal about America’s evolving economic posture.From geopolitical calculations to trade war ripple effects, this discussion brings sharp insight into the intersection of policy, politics, and power.#TrumpTariffs #USPolitics #california #powell #ForeignPolicy #trump #Newsom #JeromePowell #Geopolitics #TradePolicy

The Goods and Services tax, introduced to streamline and unify a complicated indirect tax regime in India, has been a subject of criticism and contesting claims since its inception. On the one hand, it has emerged a buoyantly growing source of revenue for the government, while on the other, the multiplicity of tax slabs, high compliance burden and lack of transparency in certain respects have undermined the promise with which it was billed. In Episode 7 of Tracking Trends, I sit down with Najib Shah, who was the Chairman of the Central Board of Excise & Customs (CBEC) when the GST rollout was being finalised. As the Chairman of CBEC and as a special invitee to the GST council, he was involved with the process leading to the formulation of the GST Laws.We discuss what the aim of #GST was, how much it has achieved, where it has missed, and the road ahead. The result is an insightful conversation where both of us were made to think and take in new perspectives.#gstregistration #GSTReforms #indianeconomy #rajeshmahapatra #compositionscheme #cbic #taxrevenue

In Episode 6 of Tracking Trends, I sit down to chat with Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, noted Foreign Affairs Journalist and the South Asia Head of the Eurasia Group.Pramit is an experienced and knowledgable expert in foreign affairs, and has been tracking American policy and global economics closely. We discuss the latest sweeping tariffs levied by the Trump Administration, and the repercussions for the world economy and trade, including India. 🇮🇳🇺🇸We discuss:- How the American consumer is likely to be hit the hardest- The impact on US inflation and the heightened risks of a #recession - How is the world reacting to Trump's tariffs- Impact on India and the future of US-India trade relationsIs India prepared to take the hit? Will Trump backtrack on his #reciprocaltariffs? Watch now to get exclusive expert insights!📌 Subscribe for more insights on global trade, economy, and policy.💬 Comment below with your thoughts—how should India respond?#India #TradeWar #Trump #Tariffs #USIndiaRelations #GlobalEconomy

In this episode of Tracking Trends, I sit down with Meghna Bal, Director at Esya Centre and a lawyer by training, to discuss the impact of Grok on public discourse in India.🚨 Key Topics:🔹 How Grok is shaping online conversations🔹 The role of AI in spreading (or combating) misinformation🔹 Challenges of regulating AI-driven content🔹 The future of digital media policy in IndiaWith AI-powered platforms becoming more influential, how should policymakers, tech companies, and the public respond? Tune in for an insightful discussion!📺 Watch now and join the conversation in the comments!📺 Watch other videos from #TrackingTrends playlist here:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvOX5e1yGcTUcZgQBdTbpIQfRqOfoUgdb🔔 Subscribe for more deep dives into India’s tech, economy, and policy landscape! Learn more about Esya Centre at: www.esyacentre.org#Grok #grok3 #AI #ElonMusk #Misinformation #TechPolicy #DigitalRegulation #TrackingTrends #RajeshMahapatra

In the fourth episode of Tracking Trends, I sit down with trade and commerce expert Ajay Srivastava to break down the latest shifts in global trade. With rising tariffs, shifting supply chains, and evolving trade policies, how is India navigating these challenges? What do these trends mean for businesses and the economy?🔹 Key topics we cover:✅ The latest trade numbers and what they mean✅ India’s trade strategy and policy shifts✅ The future of exports and supply chains✅ Key sectors to watch in 2025Don’t miss this insightful conversation!📌 Subscribe for more in-depth discussions on business, economy, and global trade.💬 Share your thoughts in the comments! How should India respond to global trade challenges?#TrackingTrends #TradePolicy #GlobalEconomy #AjaySrivastava #Tariffs #Business

As the U.S. imposes tariffs under Trump’s trade policies, how is India responding? In this conversation with Rajesh Mahapatra, trade expert Arpita Mukherjee at the Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations (ICRIER) breaks down India’s strategy, the potential economic impact, and what this means for global trade relations. 🇮🇳🇺🇸We discuss:- How India is responding to #DonaldTrump and his threats of #reciprocaltariffs - The implications for key industries like manufacturing & exports- Whether India can turn this trade war into an opportunity- The future of US-India trade relationsIs India prepared to stand its ground? Will Trump’s #tariffs backfire? Watch now to get expert insights!📌 Subscribe for more insights on global trade, economy, and policy.💬 Comment below with your thoughts—how should India respond?#India #TradeWar #Trump #Tariffs #USIndiaRelations #GlobalEconomy

Concerns are growing that the US economy may be heading toward a recession. February’s official jobs data revealed the slowest employment growth in three and a half years, and March could be even worse as Elon Musk’s efforts to downsize the US government take effect.The Atlanta Fed now estimates that US GDP will contract by 2.3% in the January-March quarter. If the downturn extends into April-June, the US would officially be in a recession.How did the economic outlook deteriorate so rapidly? Dhananjay Sinha, lead economist at Systematics Group, joins Rajesh Mahapatra to break down the latest data, trends, and what it means for markets worldwide.#USEconomy #Recession #Trump #IndiaEconomy #StockMarket

India’s GDP growth is projected at 6.2% for Q3 FY24-25, but does this reflect real economic strength? In this insightful discussion, Dr. Pronab Sen breaks down the numbers, highlighting key concerns around manufacturing, MSMEs, liquidity, and inflation. - Is 6.5% GDP growth sustainable, or is India facing deeper structural issues? - Why is agriculture driving growth, and can it continue? - The manufacturing slowdown—are MSMEs recovering, or is this a data illusion? - Liquidity vs. interest rates—is India tackling the real issue? - Can India achieve 8% growth to meet its 2047 economic targets?Welcome to Tracking Trends, a series where I, Rajesh Mahapatra, analyse key macroeconomic, market, and political developments through a business and economics lens. In this interview, Dr. Sen provides a data-driven analysis of India’s growth path, the risks ahead, and the urgent policy shifts needed.LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/rajesh-mahapatra/ X(Twitter): https://x.com/rajeshmahapatra #IndiaEconomy #GDPGrowth #MSMEs #Policy #RBI #Finance