John Diamond argues that the government shutdown has become an economic tax on ordinary Americans. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is heeding warning signals from the labor market as artificial intelligence and automation rewrite the rules for major industries, prompting companies like Amazon, UPS, and Intel to lay off thousands of workers. In other news, President Donald Trump is busy signing trade deals in China and Southeast Asia. But the deals’ actual value depends on how long they’re sustained. This episode was recorded on Oct. 29, 2025.  Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

As the government shutdown drags on, the economic and political costs are mounting. John W. Diamond explains the impacts for workers, markets, and economic policymaking. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is still expanding. But the tug-of-war between demand and supply shocks — notably, declining immigration and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — amount to a fragile equilibrium. This conversation was recorded on Oct. 15, 2025. Mentioned: Bill King, “Republicans Getting the Blame for the Shutdown,” https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/republicans-getting-the-blame-for-the-shutdow  Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

A congressional standoff over Affordable Care Act premium subsidies has triggered another government shutdown. John explains how we got here, why shutdowns aren’t effective policy tools, and what these recurring episodes reveal about budgetary and policymaking dysfunction in Washington. Then, he turns to the Trump administration’s proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa lottery system by favoring higher-wage positions. John examines whether this could better align the temporary, nonimmigrant visa program with its statutory mission: filling high-skilled labor shortages in specialty occupations. This conversation was recorded on Oct. 1, 2025. Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

President Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H‑1B visa petitions has catalyzed a fresh debate: will it protect U.S. workers — or hobble innovation? In this episode, John Diamond explores both sides. He digs into how H‑1Bs shape firm behavior, labor markets, and the role of startups versus incumbents. What’s the real cost — and who pays it? This conversation was recorded on Sept. 24, 2025.  Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond explains why a weakening labor market is pushing the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate (even in the face of sticky inflation). He also unpacks the looming government shutdown — and why, unless Washington reforms its budget process, we should expect bigger deficits and higher inflation risk. This conversation was recorded on Sept. 16, 2025.  Clips used in this episode: “Revised job numbers raise new concerns about economic slowdown,” PBS News, Sept. 9, 2025. Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond breaks down three major developments. First, a federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his sweeping tariffs. Second, a new executive order from Trump eliminates the de minimis exemption, which had allowed imports worth $800 or less to enter the country tax-free. Third, new jobs numbers show an increasingly fragile labor market. This conversation was recorded on Sept. 3, 2025.  Clips used in this episode: “BREAKING: U.S. appeals court rules Trump's global tariffs are illegal,” NBC News, August 29, 2025. “‘US will be destroyed if…’” The Economic Times, September 1, 2025. “Trump ends tariff exemption for low-value packages,” CNN, August 29, 2025. “US July Jolts Report: Job openings fall by 176,000,” Bloomberg Television, September 3, 2025. Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — keeping prices stable and achieving maximum employment — is being tested. At its Sept. 17 meeting, the central bank must decide whether or not to cut interest rates, a decision complicated by persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and an escalating pressure campaign waged by the Donald Trump administration. Trump has pushed for steep rate cuts, repeatedly called for Fed chair Jerome Powell to step down, and more recently moved to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook in a broader effort to gain leverage over the independent agency. John Diamond lays out the political and monetary challenges facing the Fed and explains what really matters for the country’s long-term economic health. This conversation was recorded on Aug. 27, 2025. Clips used in this episode: “Trump calls Fed chair Powell ‘stupid person,’” Reuters, June 18, 2025. “New Fed statement about Trump plan to fire Lisa Cook,” CBS News, August 26, 2025. “Fed Chair Powell: Labor market is in a ‘curious kind of balance,’” CNBC, August 22, 2025. Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right? John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth. Mentioned in this episode: Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461   White House Council of Economic Advisers, Preserving and Expanding Low Tax Rates to Create American Economic Prosperity, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Preserving-and-Expanding-Low-Tax-Rates-to-Create-American-Economic-Prosperity.pdf   Tax Foundation, “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis, https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/   This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025.   A transcript is available here: https://bit.ly/4kq8QnD  Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond explains why President Donald Trump’s recently announced trade deal with the United Kingdom is a net negative for the U.S. and why despite an additional trade deal with China, we’re still worse off than we were five months ago. Then, he reviews the progress of Republicans’ “one big, beautiful” tax bill and explains what makes fiscal sense and what doesn’t. Finally, he explores an executive order from Trump that aims to slash prescription drug prices and explores the potential trade-off between lower consumer costs and incentivizing pharmaceutical innovation. This conversation was recorded on May 13, 2025.  Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond outlines what Congress should consider as it prepares to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of 2025. He covers: how tweaks to the tax system can encourage U.S. companies to return production from overseas; why it’s important to incentivize investment in research and development (R&D); and how policymakers can tackle the budget deficit by taxing economic rents. This episode was recorded on April 22, 2025. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, ending nearly three years of steady growth. John Diamond breaks down the latest GDP report and explains why the headline negative number isn’t the most important story — and what warning signals we should really be paying attention to. This conversation was recorded on April 30, 2025. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

In the first episode of “The Two-Handed Economist,” John Diamond — director of the Center for Tax and Budget Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy — dives into the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariffs. He unpacks the market turmoil, rising consumer costs, and global retaliation, arguing that these policies may do more harm than good. With a focus on historical lessons and practical alternatives, Diamond lays the foundation for this new podcast by bringing clarity to complex economic issues. Mentioned: “Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World” by Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago, NBER, CEPR), Sina T. Ates (Federal Reserve Board), and Giammario Impullitti (University of Nottingham), 2021. This episode was recorded on April 15, 2025 at 10:00 am CT. You can find the transcript here. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.