In this episode, we take a closer look at economist Roger Martin-Fagg’s July 2025 economic forecast and what it means for UK SMEs. With global tariffs looming and questions swirling about interest rates, inflation, and government spending, we look past the headlines to interpret what’s really going on beneath the surface. Roger’s quarterly insight offers a more nuanced, SME-relevant view than typical media narratives, and we explore it in full.

We discuss why the UK economy is performing better than expected, why the US outlook appears bleaker despite strong markets, and how global policy shifts, from trade tariffs to defence spending, are impacting small and medium businesses. Plus, we reflect on the rising role of AI in boosting productivity, the real story behind rising savings rates, and how SME agility continues to outpace larger organisations in adapting to economic change.

Chapters:

00:00:00 – Introduction & Catch-Up

00:02:36 – Why Roger Martin-Fagg’s Forecast Matters

00:10:51 – Global Trade Tensions & Economic Policy Shifts

00:15:33 – UK Economic Performance & Property Outlook

00:22:59 – AI Adoption & SME Productivity Gains

00:27:05 – Trade Deals, Supply Chains & Strategic Positioning

Key Topics Discussed:

• Roger Martin-Fagg’s latest UK and global economic forecast (July 2025)
• The potential impact of new US global tariffs and economic policy changes
• UK property prices, inflation, savings rates, and infrastructure investment
• Why SMEs are adopting AI faster than large corporates, and reaping the benefits
• The role of defence spending in GDP growth and inflation
• Risks to the global economy from US agricultural exports and Chinese tariffs

Who Is This Episode For?

This episode is essential listening for UK-based business owners, managing directors, strategic decision-makers, and those in sales, marketing, or operations roles at small and medium-sized enterprises. If you’re responsible for navigating your business through market uncertainty and making informed investment decisions, this conversation offers grounded, data-informed perspectives you won’t find in mainstream headlines.

Quotes to remember:

“SMEs have already moved on, iterated, and proven it works, while policy makers are still in focus groups.”“More tanks mean fewer cars, defence spending may grow GDP, but it's inflationary.”“Interest rates may not fall further this year; those exposed to debt should take note.”

Actionable Takeaways:

1. Keep watch for the government’s promised interactive investment map – It could reveal growth hotspots for SME opportunities.
2. Review your AI adoption strategy – Many SMEs are already leveraging tools for productivity gains; waiting may mean falling behind.
3. Plan cautiously for the second half of 2025 – Although UK growth has been stronger than forecast, global volatility may still bite.
4. Stay alert to currency fluctuations – The dollar could weaken in response to policy uncertainty and trade issues.
5. Don’t expect immediate interest rate cuts – Reassess cash flow and investment timing if you’re reliant on lower borrowing costs.

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