The Rate Debate

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The Rate Debate

Darren Langer

53 episodes

2 months ago

After years of sharp analysis and spirited debates, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren sign off for the very last time in the final episode of The Rate Debate. From resilient labour markets and rising public spending to Fixed Income opportunities, Darren and Jess explore the key drivers that shaped 2024 and what lies ahead for 2025. They discuss inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting potential shifts in corporate credit ...

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After years of sharp analysis and spirited debates, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren sign off for the very last time in the final episode of The Rate Debate. From resilient labour markets and rising public spending to Fixed Income opportunities, Darren and Jess explore the key drivers that shaped 2024 and what lies ahead for 2025. They discuss inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting potential shifts in corporate credit ...

Show more...

Episodes (20/53)

The Rate Debate

Ep 53: It's time for a change

After years of sharp analysis and spirited debates, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren sign off for the very last time in the final episode of The Rate Debate. From resilient labour markets and rising public spending to Fixed Income opportunities, Darren and Jess explore the key drivers that shaped 2024 and what lies ahead for 2025. They discuss inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting potential shifts in corporate credit ...

9 months ago

17 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 52: Uncertain RBA overshadowed by US election

In Episode 52 of The Rate Debate, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren dive into the US election’s potential outcomes, exploring its implications for bond markets, foreign policy, spending, and economic stability. The duo break down the gap between trimmed and headline inflation, shifting gold and oil prices, and discuss the geopolitical risks they expect will rise in the next 12-18 months.

10 months ago

14 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 51: The rest of the world is changing, so why aren't we?

The big question remains: will Australia follow the Fed’s lead or stick to its current path? In Episode 51 of The Rate Debate, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren unpack the Fed’s recent decision, explore the chances of rate cuts before Australia’s next federal election, and debate the importance and reliability of employment data for the RBA. They also take a closer look at inflation pressures, from petrol prices and energy rebates to rising service costs.

11 months ago

11 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 50: Australia to be at the back end of a major regime change - but that's not a bad thing for investors

This month, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren celebrate the 50th episode of The Rate Debate. With 50 insightful discussions on the RBA's decisions and their market impacts, from unexpected rate cuts to bold hikes, they've covered it all. To mark this milestone, they are joined by special guest Hans Lee from Livewire Markets. Together, they tackle the RBA's most recent monetary policy decision, unpack the recent chaos caused by the US jobs report and expl...

1 year ago

18 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 49: A statement of ifs and buts

Pundits of Australia's economy expect the central bank will maintain its default rhetoric of “vigilance against inflation risks”. However, given the number of “ifs and buts” in its most recent statement, the RBA seems to be less certain of the next move. In episode 49 of The Rate Debate, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren explore whether the RBA's gentler approach will continue to work, discuss the global interest rate-cutting party that is underway, de...

1 year ago

10 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 48: Central bank independence is still alive

The RBA is, and continues to remain an independent central bank, committed to openness, transparency, and accountability. Despite this, perceptions in the Australian market continue to challenge the credibility of its independence. In episode 48 of the Rate Debate, Darren is joined by Investment Manager Jessica Ren to discuss the latest rate decision, share their opinions on why monetary policy shouldn't be run in isolation but hand in hand with fiscal and regulatory policy and unpack ...

1 year ago

10 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 47: RBA loosens its grip: the end of a tightening era?

The RBA has scrapped any hints of potential further hikes, sparking speculation on whether it will continue to be open on hiking, despite pivoting to a more neutral guidance. In episode 47 of The Rate Debate, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren unpack the RBA's "shift in language" from a tightening bias to a neutral rate outlook, share their thoughts on the rebound of consumer confidence and evaluate the likelihood of a policy shift by global central bank...

1 year ago

11 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 46: New regime, same outcome

The RBA may have started its new regime of two-day meetings and press conferences to improve transparency, yet the outcome remained the same as it was when it last met: no change to the cash rate. In the first episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer is joined by Investment Manager Jessica Ren to analyse the RBA’s new approach, unpick the labour market outlook, and discuss whether geopolitical tensions are likely to be the largest challenge facing central ban...

1 year ago

9 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 45: Is Australia set for a soft or hard landing in 2024?

The RBA has granted a festive reprieve for mortgage holders, keeping interest rates on hold in line with expectations after inflation continued to slow. The year 2023 was characterised by a period dominated by inflation risk, geopolitics and monetary tightening. Will these economic conditions persist in the new year? In the final episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, Darren Langer and Jessica Ren discuss their outlook on the global economy, share their views on whether we can expect a ha...

1 year ago

13 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep44: Is “funflation” fuelling rising interest rates?

The RBA delivers a Melbourne Cup rate hike to curb persistent inflation. Rising energy and service costs are contributing factors, but the post-pandemic spending spree, favouring experiences over possessions, raises questions about “funflation” stoking inflationary pressures. Will higher rates further fan the flames? Darren is joined by his new sparring partner, Jessica Ren, to explore these dynamics and more in episode 44 of The Rate Debate.

1 year ago

11 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 43: What’s driving higher bond yields?

September was a tough month for the fixed-rate bond market, but on the flip side, credit spreads narrowed. In this month’s episode of The Rate Debate, Darren is joined by senior credit portfolio manager Phil Strano to give their insights and discuss the impact of a default cycle as quantitative easing ends, and monetary policy starts to normalise.

1 year ago

18 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 42: Inflation has peaked

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe finished his tenure as he began by keeping rates on hold as inflation cools. With inflation past its peak, can we expect rate cuts on the horizon, and could a softening of China's economy bring them even closer or will services inflation drive the incoming governor Michele Bullock to deliver a rate rise later this year? Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to explore this and the outlook for credit markets in...

2 years ago

19 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 41: Uncertainty abounds in the face of economic challenges

Amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBA has seen fit to keep rates on hold for a consecutive month and wait to see how the lagging effects of 12 rate hikes play out. While inflation is decelerating, uncertainty abounds over consumer spending, falling productivity and wage growth. Will the central bank's aim to deliver a soft landing make it harder to get inflation back to target, meaning that this pause is short-lived? Darren is joined by special guest Phil Strano, Senior Portfolio M...

2 years ago

16 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 40: The winners and losers

The RBA has paused on hiking rates (for now) creating some big winners and losers. This month Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to identify the potential warning signs for lenders, discuss whether Australia's banks will remain "unquestionably strong", and examine which companies in the consumer sector will stand to win or lose. Darren and Roy discuss this and more in episode 40 of The Rate Debate.

2 years ago

21 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 39: Monetary policy changing the goalposts

Australia has been delivered another rate hike in an attempt to "quash" inflation. This month Darren debates with special guest Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, the risks posed by rising wages and weak productivity growth, and why the RBA continue to change its goalposts to drive down inflation.

2 years ago

23 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 38: Mixed signals from RBA creating market confusion

Hitting the economy with surprise after surprise, the RBA takes another fresh assault to tackle inflation head-on by taking the cash rate to 3.85%. Continued mixed signals from Australia’s central bank are causing havoc within the domestic economy. With the RBA not ruling out further rate hikes, Darren and Chris look into the impact on markets and discuss their thoughts on the future of the RBA in episode 38 of The Rate Debate.

2 years ago

19 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 37: Did the RBA fuel the fire or douse the flames?

Despite the RBA's massive rate "U-turn" and their insistence that we are in the final stage of the hiking cycle, has it come too late to stop a recession? Chris Rands and Darren Langer examine the factors influencing the market and reveal their expectations of the economy and the Australian credit market in episode 37 of The Rate Debate.

2 years ago

14 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 36: How many times can the RBA say "just one more time"?

After hiking for the tenth consecutive month, the RBA has Australia questioning whether its repeated actions to combat inflation will cause an overshoot and push the nation into recession. From a wage-price spiral, rising unemployment, and faltering GDP, it seems the consumer and government sectors have been the most exposed to the ongoing "inflationary pulse". Do we think Australian companies will lead the charge and are we starting to see Fixed Income revert to more atypical behaviour...

2 years ago

15 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep 35: Is the RBA setting monetary policy in the rear-view mirror?

At its first meeting for 2023, the RBA hiked rates for the ninth consecutive month to urgently tame inflation, telling the market to expect more to come. Given Australia’s inflation levels have lagged the US, is Australia six months behind? or are we going into a period of higher inflation than the rest of the world? Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 35 of The Rate Debate.

2 years ago

15 minutes

The Rate Debate

Ep34: 2023 predictions on the economy, inflation, and the fixed-rate mortgage cliff

The RBA delivered an eighth-straight rate hike to hit a 10-year high to round out a tumultuous 2022. In the final episode of The Rate Debate for the year, Darren and Chris discuss their thoughts on further tightening next year, whether a global recession could solve the inflation problem and the impact of the fixed-rate mortgage cliff on Australian homeowners and the domestic economy.

2 years ago

19 minutes