Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.

Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?

Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves and incorporate carry into your thinking.

Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us? To reach out to Alf and Brent, shoot an email at themacrotradingfloor@gmail.com

Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/

Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?

Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets. To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/

This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell. Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg

Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US.  Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso Peccatiello Want to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent Donnelly Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/

Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/

Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX. If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.com If you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.

Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not? Interested in Alf's institutional macro research? Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.com Interested in Brent's daily FX research reports? Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX

Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be. Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.com Want access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/

In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities. Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/

Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/

Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts? Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/

Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing. Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf? Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-13dec24/

Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative? Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6 Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants? FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates. FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/