David Osman of IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss David Murrin's ‘5 Stages of Empire’ model and the influence of longer run cyclical trends on geopolitical risks, political factors, the world economic outlook and the prospects for the global financial markets. David assesses the deep-seated problems in the USA and the damage that President Trump’s tariffs and other policies are doing to the country’s international reputation. He points out that this has major implications for the value of the US dollar and its role as the world’s reserve currency. David also explains the basis for his dramatic views about the dangers of Chinese expansionism in northeast Asia and the rising risks of a wider war in the Middle East, as well as the potential for an escalation of Russia’s hostile actions in Europe. David says this has put us on the cusp of World War 3, pitting the West against hostile actions by the “Axis of Autocracy”. Meanwhile, he points out that the unfolding of a commodity super cycle will have a profound impact on global inflation, bond markets and cryptocurrencies. David notes that this helps to explain the recent sharp increase in the price of gold into overbought territory. In these circumstances, David sees the prospects for world stock markets becoming increasingly problematic, particularly the outlook for the US stock market and its dominant AI investment theme. David Murrin has done more than most to link long-run historic trends and human behaviour to successful investment decisions. David is a polymath who is renowned for his development of a unique set of behavioural models whilst at JP Morgan, which have been used to predict financial markets in an effective and profitable way. These models provided the foundation for his multi-decade career in the hedge fund industry. Global Forecaster was established by David in 2019 to provide a unique, top-down, geopolitical overview and actionable real-time market analysis within a risk framework, and with a focus on profitable short-term trading opportunities, as well as longer-term asset allocation decisions in the global financial markets.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss the increasing focus on fiscal policy relative to monetary policy in the highly-indebted developed world and the consequent growth in the importance of political risk analysis.  Helen then assesses some of the geopolitical, political and economic risk factors that will influence the medium-term outlook for the global financial markets. Focusing on Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the USA, she highlights various factors that point towards the mispricing of risks and opportunities in the bond, equity and currency markets, as well as the prospects for the gold price.   Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. Blonde Money was established in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm to bring together the worlds of politics and finance. Helen and her team analyse and monitor mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Dimitris Valatsas, the Chief Economist at Auroa Macro Strategies. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss the prospects for US economy and the financial markets. Dimitris considers the impact of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies on a weakening labour market. He also assesses the outlook for US monetary policy with particular reference to the prospective erosion of the central bank’s independence and what this would mean for inflation and interest rates. Dimitris reviews the legal challenge to President Trump’s tariff policies and what this could mean for fiscal policy, given the projected high level of the federal budget deficit. He then discusses the outlook for the US dollar and concludes with an assessment of the importance of the A.I. investment theme for the economy and the stock market. Dimitris Valatsas has over a decade of experience advising asset managers, hedge funds, family offices, and other financial institutions on macroeconomic and market developments, focusing on the USA and Europe. Aurora Macro Strategies provides actionable insights on global macroeconomics, geopolitics and policies. The AMS team has decades of experience advising investors across developed and emerging markets. Their research and advisory process is organised around four central pillars: Neutrality, Confidentiality, Forward Thinking analysis and a Diversity of viewpoints.

David Osman of IRF is joined by James Burdass, the Managing Partner at Commodity Intelligence to discuss the evolving role of commodities in a global multi-asset portfolio. ----more---- In doing so, he assesses the importance for investors of the way that the global markets for many individual commodities are fracturing and becoming more fragmented with regional factors becoming more important. James says heightened geopolitical risk factors, a proliferation of US tariffs, distortions to international trade and disruptions to global supply chains have created a “New World Order” that is having a significant impact on the nature of investment in the commodity markets. He discusses what this means for investors in precious metals and the oil and gas markets, as well as some of the key base metals and soft commodities.   Commodity Intelligence LLP was established in 2008. James Burdass became the Managing Partner and owner of the business in 2024, having previously been the Chairman since 2021. James’s has a career that has spanned more than 25 years in commodities research, including 14 years on the buy side.    Commodity Intelligence provides specialist advice on Global Commodity Markets and Equities. Their approach is based on the use of Artificial Intelligence to source information, predominantly from the internet, to identify key themes before traditional financial media.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- In this episode they discuss the longer run cyclical trends and other factors that are likely to influence the global financial markets during the remainder of this year and beyond. Ron outlines how, in the near term, financial markets are generally seen as being in a volatile trading range, due in part to the ongoing vagaries of US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, he assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In the currency markets, Ron discusses the outlook for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and some of the dollar’s key cross rates. In the bond markets, he explains the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the inflationary pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the continuing upside potential and the cyclical downside risks in the US and UK stock markets, as well as identifying some other stock markets that are particularly attractive at present. Ron also assesses the prospects for gold and other important commodities. With respect to the cryptocurrency markets, he discusses the emerging importance of Bitcoin and Ethereum as macro hedge safe haven plays. Ron concludes with an assessment of the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter 3-5 year business cycle and discusses the potential for a big shift in the global financial markets whereby capital preservation becomes an important focus.   Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Hamza Ghani, the Head of Crypto Research at ABCG Research. ----more---- In this podcast, Hamza explains the rapidly evolving crypto asset landscape from Bitcoin and altcoins to stablecoins and tokenized instruments. In doing so, he reviews the emerging regulatory environment and discusses other important factors, such as upgrades to the blockchain infrastructure and increasing institutional engagement in crypto assets. Hamza then sets out the way that a cryptocurrency can be analysed and forecast. He discusses his medium-term predictions for the price of Bitcoin in the current upcycle and subsequent downswing, thereby identifying a key potential buying opportunity for the next five years. Hamza puts crypto in the context of their global multi-asset allocation recommendations and identifies those crypto investment opportunities that look most attractive and those that are unattractive.   ABCG Research specialises in alternative investments and macroeconomic research, providing deep insights, market trends and data-driven analysis to support strategic decision-making in a dynamic global economy. With a focus on precision and innovation, they provide businesses and investors with actionable intelligence.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro. ----more---- In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He then assesses the problems that face the Federal Reserve as it tries to carry out its dual mandate to contain inflation and to maximise employment. Manoj concludes with an assessment for global asset allocators of the outlook for interest rates, bond yields, equities, currencies and some investment opportunities in the US, UK, EU, Japan and several of the Emerging Markets.   Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 3-6-12-18 month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”. From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US economy and elsewhere, with particular reference to the volatile impact on the financial markets. Helen then discusses some of the key factors influencing the outlook for US monetary policy and the US bond market, before focusing on the prospects for the US stock market and the US dollar. In conclusion, Helen assesses the longer-term implications for the durability of the USA’s leading role in the world. Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She is a CFA charter holder and serves on the UK board of the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute. Helen is also a Freeman of the City of London and has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University. Blonde Money was stablished in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU. This ranges from political risks (such as those related to Brexit, the USA, China and Russia) to structural market instabilities (such as those created by bank failures or by the derivative markets).    

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML. In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump’s agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. This is creating some uncertainties, not least the potential for high tariffs to cause some economic and financial disruption. Jonathan reviews the outlook for US economic growth, inflation and interest rates. He assesses the ramifications for the bond and stock markets, before concluding with an assessment of where we are in relation to his analysis of the long-term trends and cycles over the past two centuries.   Jonathan Wilmot is a former FX Strategist at Bank of America, Fixed Income Strategist at Merrill Lynch and Chief Global Strategist at Credit Suisse. He has been described as “one of the brightest minds on Wall Street”. In 2017 Jonathan established his own Macro-research boutique and AI investment start up. Wilmot ML is the research arm of XAI Asset Management. Their primary focus is on the policy and market implications of the cycle in global growth and risk appetite, as well as the drivers of long-term structural change in the world economy and geopolitics.

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views. In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar’s main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets. Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals. In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets. In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025. Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research. ----more---- In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in Japan, India, China and Taiwan. Sharmila Whelan is a very experienced global geopolitical-macro strategist, who has been advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations for nearly three decades. Sharmila has held prominent roles for leading firms in London and Hong Kong, including Merryll Lynch/Bank of America, CLSA, BP and Altheia Capital. She has also counselled various governmental bodies and is a frequent contributor to the financial media, including Bloomberg, the BBC and CNBC. Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy, which is based in London.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for interest rates and the currency exchange rates versus the US dollar. Paul concludes with an assessment of some of the longer-term demographic and technological trends that are influencing the region. Paul Cavey has been analysing the North East Asian Economies, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. He was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners. ----more---- In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, monetary, trade and regulatory policies in the next two years, ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November 2026. He also discusses what these policies might mean for US economy and the dollar. James concludes with an assessment of the geopolitical outlook for US foreign policy in a dangerous world. Capital Alpha Partners is a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting, which was founded in 2007 and is based in Washington D.C. They track US political developments that impact on the economy, global equities, credits and broader portfolios. Their team of very experienced analysts offers situational awareness of Washington – its legislative activity, regulatory processes, judicial crosshairs and political climate – on a macro, sector and subsector basis. They cover a broad spectrum of all the key sectors from Consumers and Energy, to Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Telecoms, Media and Technology.

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe. ----more---- Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.

Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy. ----more---- Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy. Against a backdrop of widespread overcapacity and declining demand, Trump's proposals for tariffs even if only partially implemented, will accelerate the reversion to 'local for local' supply chains with unpredictable consequences for investors, who are already grappling with very high levels of valuations, most notably in the US equity market.

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.