Episode Summary: Why did Vladimir Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Barry Posen argues that Putin’s decision is consistent with the logic of preventive war. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.

At least since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, some scholars and policymakers have called for retrenching the United States’ global military presence. Miranda Priebe and John Schuessler discuss realist, conservative, and progressive visions of restraint. They draw out the underlying beliefs that draw each group to a grand strategy of restraint and highlight the divisions between and within these groups.

Conventional thinking suggests that autocrats need foreign enemies to bolster their regimes’ popularity at home. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is often thought to reap domestic legitimacy from belligerence. But as Adam Lenton and Henry Hale discuss, Putin wins as much popular support when he presents himself as prudent and cooperative rather than as hostile and aggressive. This suggests that Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine was not driven by domestic political necessity. Indeed, autocrats may try to have it both ways, trying to covertly stoke hostilities while overtly appearing to be moderate and cooperative pursuers of stability and prosperity.

Dominic Tierney discusses his recent article, “The Iron Dice: Fatalism and War.” National leaders often exhibit fatalism, or the belief that events are guided by forces beyond their control. Fatalism can help leaders avoid responsibility for costly outcomes and protect their self-image. Drawing on case studies from World War I and II, Tierney shows how fatalism can be an important cause of war, especially when combined with a perceived window of opportunity. Fatalism is more likely in regard to bad outcomes, when war is seen as imminent, and in nondemocratic regimes.

Şener Aktürk discusses his recent article, “Not So Innocent: Clerics, Monarchs, and the Ethnoreligious Cleansing of Western Europe.” Ethnic cleansing is often seen as a specifically modern phenomenon. But as Akturk explains, the medieval Catholic Church facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Akturk describes the geopolitical conditions that made this possible and his findings’ implications for twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, the Soviet Union, and Syria.

In this episode, Matthew Evangelista discusses his recent International Security article, “A ‘Nuclear Umbrella’ for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security.” How can Ukraine and Europe deter further Russian aggression after the Russo-Ukrainian war ends? The conventional wisdom holds that Ukraine should join NATO to shelter under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Evangelista challenges this assertion, arguing that nuclear deterrence was never tested during the Cold War. He proposes an alternative way to reestablish European security: a non-offensive, confidence-building defense that does not rely on the threat of nuclear war.

In this episode, we explore when and why states reveal their clandestine military capabilities. Specifically, we discuss the role of the private sector in helping to develop and conceal such capabilities. Under what conditions do states benefit from revealing their clandestine military capabilities? What role does the defense industry play in helping to maintain states’ military secrets? Compared to the Cold War period, is it becoming more or less difficult to safeguard military secrets? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine the rise and demise of radiological weapons programs in the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1940s and 1950s. In particular, we discuss how this underexplored history informs the pursuit of radiological weapons by state actors today. What are radiological weapons and how are they different from nuclear weapons? What factors led to the rise and decline of radiological weapons programs in the United States and the Soviet Union? Are radiological weapons a thing of the past, or do they remain an attractive option for countries today? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we explore the politics of technology and the North Korean nuclear crisis. In particular, we focus on how lessons from the 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea can be applied to nonproliferation diplomacy today. Why did the 1994 Agreed Framework fail, and what impact did this failure have on U.S.-North Korea relations? What have we learned from these challenges in proliferation crisis diplomacy? Can lessons from the Agreed Framework be applied to U.S.-Iran relations? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we discuss the lead-up to the Iraq War and how states respond to international pressure regarding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. In particular, we explore the dilemma faced by Iraq from 1991 to 2003 concerning how much to disclose about its past WMD capabilities. What does it mean to have a “cheater’s dilemma”? How does new evidence of this dilemma challenge the conventional wisdom on Iraq’s behavior at the time? Can we apply the concept of a cheater’s dilemma to contemporary cases of WMD proliferation or other instances state misconduct? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we explore the politics of alliance relationship management and reputational concerns during international crises. In particular, we focus on the United States, Taiwan, and other partnerships in East Asia. What does it mean to have a reputation for being a “good ally”? Do states always want their partners to be “loyal”? What types of statements and behaviors reassure nervous allies? Where is America’s reputation most on the line in East Asia? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we explore the tension between liberal values and material interests in U.S. foreign policy, as well as examine the inconsistencies of Western-led democracy promotion. Does the United States truly prioritize democracy promotion in its foreign policy? How does the United States’ definition of democracy influence its democracy promotion efforts abroad? Does the West’s failure to intervene in the current protests in Belarus represent a departure from Wilsonian ideals? Listen to this episode to find out!

In this episode, we address the current state of civil-military relations in the United States, explore the paradoxes of having an “apolitical” military as envisioned by Samuel Huntington, and contemplate the future of civil-military relations. Are civil-military relations really in crisis in the United States today? If existing norms are not working, what should the norms and practices of civil-military relations be? What role should retired military officers play in government and public life? How can both civilian and military leaders better prepare for their joint work? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine the history of great power politics in the Middle East and the Arab-Israeli conflict, with a focus on the period of détente between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War. We then assess major power relations in the region today and possible future trends. Why did great power détente fail in the Middle East, and what impact did this failure have on the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israeli-Palestinian peace process? Can lessons from the Cold War period of détente be applied to contemporary politics? What is the current state of great power politics in the region, and how is it likely to change going forward? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine the U.S. electoral calendar’s impact on military strategy during the Iraq War. How did U.S. electoral considerations impact military decisions at the presidential level, such as the 2007 surge and the 2011 withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq? In what ways did these considerations interact with local conditions on the ground and Iraqi domestic politics? Will the current U.S. electoral cycle influence foreign policy decision-making regarding Iraq and the Middle East more broadly? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine Chinese views on the likelihood of nuclear escalation in the event of a crisis or armed conflict with the United States. How do Chinese and American views on nuclear use differ? Under what circumstances could nuclear escalation arise? How can both countries avoid inadvertent escalation? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine how refugee return can upset post-conflict stability and lead to renewed conflict at home. While our conversation touches upon numerous cases of conflict-induced migration, our analysis zeroes in on post-conflict Burundi. How do post-conflict societies respond to refugee return? Under what conditions do tensions between those who stayed and those who left become violent? What can local and international actors do to mitigate the risks of renewed conflict once refugees come home? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine how and when international criminal tribunals deter wartime atrocities. Our discussion analyzes the past, present, and future of international criminal tribunals, with specific reference to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and NATO intervention in the Balkans. Was the international criminal tribunal able to deter wartime atrocities in the former Yugoslavia? How did NATO’s intervention change the calculus of all parties on the ground? What are the implications of the Yugoslav experience for the future of the International Criminal Court and other international criminal tribunals? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine when and how domestic politics can influence a state’s nuclear choices and, in particular, when a country’s leaders choose to expand nuclear decision-making to those outside of their inner circle. Our policy discussion focuses on the impact of Iranian and American domestic politics on the past, present, and future of the Iran nuclear deal. Who are the main factions and decision makers driving the two countries’ respective policies? What is the current state of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? Given looming elections in both countries, what does the future hold for the Iran deal? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we discuss the interesting history and legacy of the debate inside the Clinton Administration on how to enlarge NATO. Twenty-five years ago, supporters of a relatively swift conferral of full NATO membership to a narrow range of countries outmaneuvered proponents of a slower, phased conferral of limited membership to a wide range of states. What was at stake in this debate and why did “swift conferral” win the day? What were the main drivers, and who were the key decision-makers? How can the history of NATO enlargement help explain transatlantic politics, conflict in Ukraine, and US-Russia relations today? Listen to find out!