In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by analyst and researcher Sarra Majdoub to take a closer look at Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their evolving military and political objectives. They discuss the RSF’s recent loss of control in Khartoum to the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the group’s strategic pivot toward consolidating power in Darfur and the Kordofan regions even as those areas suffer from a deepening humanitarian crisis. They unpack the RSF’s emerging new political strategy, including their recent alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and efforts to establish a parallel government with allied armed groups. They also discuss the RSF’s new long-range drone capabilities and why the group decided to escalate the conflict by launching strikes into eastern Sudan, including on Port Sudan. Finally, they explore whether the RSF is preparing for a lengthy war and protracted stalemate, if the group is positioning for a negotiated settlement to the war, or both. 

For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, our recent analyst’s notebook entries: “Capture of Tri-border Area Marks Another Twist in Sudan’s Civil War”, “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year”, “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and our Sudan page.

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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on the DR Congo-Rwanda peace deal and U.S. engagement in Africa from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa. 

For more, check out our latest Q&A, “The DR Congo-Rwanda Deal: Now Comes the Hard Part”, The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and our Africa page.

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This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Guleid Ahmed Jama, a Hargeisa-based lawyer and political commentator, to discuss Somaliland’s push for recognition. They revisit Somaliland’s decision to declare independence from Somalia in 1991 and trace how Hargeisa’s relations with Mogadishu have evolved since then. They discuss Somaliland’s memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia in 2024 – reportedly granting Ethiopia port access in exchange for potential recognition – which stirred domestic debate and regional tensions, and explore how Somaliland’s new administration has been managing relations with both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. They explore prospects of greater U.S. engagement under the Trump administration, potentially linked to military access, and discuss how Hargeisa’s ties with global powers and regional actors might evolve as Somaliland continues to assert itself internationally.

For more, check out Crisis Group’s recent analyses, “Somaliland’s Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains” and “The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal”.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Daniel Akech, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, about the deepening political crisis in South Sudan and looming questions about President Salva Kiir’s succession. They trace Kiir’s rise from military commander to president following South Sudan’s independence in 2011 and the breakup of the fragile coalition that had led the country to secession from Sudan, culminating in a devastating civil war in 2013. They examine how Kiir might manage the succession amid growing speculation that his health is declining. They look at Kiir’s recent series of government shakeups that have sidelined presidential contenders, including Vice President Riek Machar, co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also discuss the rapid ascent of Benjamin Bol Mel, a wealthy businessman and increasingly influential but divisive figure who is widely seen as Kiir’s potential successor, though he lacks popular support. Finally, they explore how regional actors might respond as South Sudan’s political crisis deepens and the risk of renewed civil war looms.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out the Hold Your Fire! episode “South Sudan on the Brink of Another War” and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our South Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.

For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Abdul Mohammed, who has worked on Sudan for many years, including as a senior official in the UN and African Union. They discuss the risks of a de facto partition of the country as both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces look to solidify their respective zones of control. They examine why previous peace initiatives have faltered, the expanding role of external powers in the conflict, and key takeaways from last week’s London conference, which brought together Western, Arab, and African countries. They consider what a multilateral effort to end the war might entail and whether the African Union is positioned to take the lead. Finally, they discuss whether there is still space for Sudan’s civilian actors in future mediation efforts and what it would take to piece the country back together after two years of war.

For more, check out our analyst notebook entries “London Conference Puts Paralysed Sudan Peace Efforts on Display” and “Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan’s War Enters Third Year” as well as our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sudanese civil society activist and political commentator Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem. They discuss her flight from Khartoum when war broke out between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces two years ago, and the devastation it brought to her neighbourhood and the city. They discuss the widespread destruction of the war on Sudan and its social fabric, and the risk of the conflict continuing to escalate, including beyond Sudan’s borders. They also explore how to end the war, the risks of the country’s partition and why so many Sudanese still reject the idea of peace talks. They also discuss where hope lies for Sudan’s future.

For more, check out our statement “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”, as well as our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Annette Weber, the European Union’s Special Representative for the Horn of Africa. They discuss how the first months of Donald Trump’s presidency have affected the region and whether the EU and other regional actors can step in to fill the humanitarian aid gap created by cuts in U.S. funding. They explore why the region appears to face so many deteriorating crises at once. They examine the prospects for diplomacy to address both the longstanding and emerging crises across the region, including the war in Sudan, the deepening political crisis in South Sudan that threatens to escalate into full-scale war, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the recent Al-Shabaab offensive in Somalia. They also discuss Europe’s response to the security crisis in the Red Sea. Finally, with the West in crisis, they consider how the EU diplomacy in the region might adapt.

For more, check out recent publications “Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading”,

“Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray Upheaval” and “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War” as well as our Horn of Africa regional page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on South Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. 

For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa to discuss Somalia’s uncertain new global context with the dawn of a new Trump administration. They first unpack the recent Ankara declaration between Somalia and Ethiopia and the failure to find funding for the new African Union mission in Somalia. They then explore what the Trump administration might do on Somalia, the potential for a major rupture in Washington’s support for Somalia’s federal government, and what this could mean for European, Turkish and Arab support for Somalia’s government. They also assess new offensives from Al-Shabaab and how the group is trying to posture itself amid all these shifts. 

For more, check out the last episodes of The Horn on Somalia What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia and Somalia amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions as well as our Somalia country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to discuss the risk of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid rising regional tensions and a deepening political crisis in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray war, but notably excluded Eritrea. They delve into the rupture of Tigray’s political leadership and how growing instability in the region has fuelled tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They also discuss prospects for de-escalation to prevent another devastating war in the Horn of Africa.

For more, check out the latest The Horn episodes with Michael: End of One War, Start of Another in Ethiopia and Eritrea’s Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia’s Tigray as well as our Horn of Africa regional page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive Officer of ODI Global, to discuss the Trump administration’s sudden halting of most foreign aid amid a trend of broader cuts to foreign aid by Western governments. They examine whether the abrupt funding freeze for USAID is collapsing aid operations on the ground, and why that matters. They also talk about why other Western donor countries are reducing aid budgets as well. They further discuss longstanding critiques of the aid industry, including from recipient countries, and why the system proved resistant to such reforms. They discuss the type of aid given by “non-traditional” non-Western donors and whether such differing approaches to aid can be bridged. Finally, they consider if an international aid system can be rebuilt and what will be the consequences if it is not. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our The Horn episode “Trump’s Aid Cuts and What Africa Should Expect Next” and our latest Q&A “Amid Aid Cuts, a Renewed U.S. Policy Increases Health Risks for Women and Girls in Conflict Areas”.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.

For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Joshua Meservey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s Africa policy. They examine the Trump administration’s recent freeze on foreign aid, its push to abolish the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and whether the administration may restore some humanitarian assistance. They unpack what else the continent might expect from Trump’s second term, including recent tensions with South Africa over land expropriation laws and competition with China over mineral supply chains. They also assess how the Trump administration might approach the conflict in Sudan, U.S. policy towards Somalia and Somaliland, the crisis in the Great Lakes, and the growing role of Middle East powers in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episode Trump in Africa, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Africa program page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri is joined by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s Senior Advisor to the African Union (AU), to talk about the upcoming elections for the AU Commission Chairperson. They unpack the chair’s mandate, the challenges faced by the current officeholder, Moussa Faki Mahamat, and his track record. With the race heating up, they examine the three leading candidates – Mahmoud Ali Yusuf (Djibouti), Raila Odinga (Kenya), and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) – exploring their leadership styles and how each could shape the AU’s future. The conversation delves into the AU’s struggles in resolving conflicts across Africa, particularly in the Horn, Sudan, and Somalia, and how the next chair could strengthen its peace efforts. They also discuss the AU’s funding challenges as Western donors shift priorities and how the organisation can strengthen its role on the global stage.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa Union page

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Omar Mahmood is joined by Paul Williams, professor of international relations at George Washington University, to discuss the newly authorised African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). They assess the record of past AU-led missions in Somalia and review the AU’s role in supporting state-building efforts in the country. They explore how Al-Shabaab’s enduring threat and regional political dynamics have influenced the latest mission’s scope and objectives. They point out the operational, financial and political hurdles facing AUSSOM, looking at how the new mission can succeed where its predecessors fell short. They also reflect on the future of peace operations in Africa more broadly.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out Paul’s book “Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the Africa Union Mission”, UNSC Resolution 2568 (2021) on the reform of AMISOM, our latest report “Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia” and our Horn of Africa project page.

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson speaks with Kwesi Sansculotte-Greenidge, former Senior Conflict and Access Advisor at the World Food Programme, and Abdalla Hussein, operational manager at Médecins Sans Frontières. They unpack the concept of humanitarian diplomacy and the challenges aid organisations face in negotiating access to civilians in conflict-affected areas, including in Sudan. They talk about the difficulties of coordinating efforts among aid organisations and the obstacles they encounter in getting conflict parties to uphold humanitarian principles amid competing interests and bureaucratic hurdles. They discuss how mediation efforts to end conflicts are often linked with negotiations for aid access and why it could make sense to separate the two tracks in cases like Sudan. They also discuss how aid organisations navigate a shifting global order and the rising influence of middle powers in conflict areas.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa program page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on what a second Trump administration means for U.S.-Africa policy from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order. 

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page. 

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Murithi Mutiga is joined by Hanna Tetteh, former UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa. They discuss the challenges of peacemaking in Africa amid regional conflicts and a shifting global order. They talk about the state of the African Union and how it can become more effective in resolving conflicts across the continent. They discuss why mediation efforts have yielded little success in Sudan and ways to strengthen diplomatic initiatives to end the conflict. They discuss ECOWAS as a model for regional integration and how the West African bloc can preserve unity amid recent tensions with Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. They touch on the implications of a second Trump presidency on UN funding and U.S.-Africa policy. They also reflect on Ghana’s successful transition from military rule to a stable democracy. 

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episode Trump in Africa, and our Africa program page.

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In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri leads a roundtable discussion with researcher and journalist Peter Schwartzstein and Karabo Mokgonyana, renewable energy campaigner at Power Shift Africa, to talk about what’s at stake for Africa at the COP29 climate summit in Baku. They discuss how a heavy debt burden has limited climate action in many African countries and the case for bringing debt relief to the table at COP. They unpack how climate change can fuel drivers of conflict and why donor countries should prioritise climate financing in conflict-afflicted countries. They also discuss how African leaders can build a united front to raise issues like climate security and climate financing at COP29 and beyond.

For more, check out Peter’s book The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence, Karobo’s article Without debt relief, Africa is fighting climate change with its hands tied and our Climate, Environment and Conflict page.

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