Today, we're joined by Doomberg, the most popular energy and commodity focused Substack. He and his team publish over 90 articles a year on the intersection of global energy and commodity policy, geopolitics, risk and technology. Today, it's Doomberg unleashed. How close are we to World War III? Are we already in it? What does that mean for the energy and commodity supply chains. How sanctions and tariffs not only reshape global commodity flows, but also weaken the West, and what the “One Big Beautiful Bill” means for American industry and the energy transition, and much more. Always a challenging and fascinating discussion.

Chip War: How semiconductors became the new oil with Chris Miller Semi-conductors, microchips, are the new oil - the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. Today, military, economic, and geopolitical power are built on a foundation of computer chips. This has only accelerated with the emergence of AI. Yet, the supply chain is incredibly concentrated with just a handful of countries and companies dominating. As with oil in the previous century, chips sit at the center of geopolitics, great-power rivalry and trade, especially between the US and China. How did chips become some crucial and their supply chains so concentrated and what does it mean for all our futures? Our guest is economic historian Chris Miller, author of Chip War - The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, the New York Times best seller.

Today, we do a deep dive into the role and challenges of a transaction lawyer in the energy transition. And why lawyering in the energy transition is lawyering on hard mode? What are the sources of complexity? What are the pain points about getting a project developed? How has current policy volatility impacted the energy transition particularly in the US? And what might the future hold? Our guest is Daniel Anziska.Daniel is an infrastructure and regulatory lawyer and partner at Troutman Pepper Locke, a leading US energy transition infrastructure law firm.

Today, we investigate the intersection of the energy transition, critical minerals and defense. As with commodities, warfare is also going through rapid and profound change, with the electrification of defense over the last 20 year. Batteries proliferate the battlefield and the energy transition is impacting national security. We are seeing the shift from capital assets to small, cheap weapons such as drones that can have profound impacts. This poses a particular problem for the US, where energy dominance has been based in hydrocarbons along with their warfare fighting capabilities. Now in an electrified battlefront, supply chains that support them sit in China, threatening the West's defence capabilities. Our guest is Joe Bryan, principal at Muswell Orange, a boutique consulting firm, focused on energy and particularly its intersection with national security. Before his return to the private sector, Joe was a senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense and was the Department sector, of Defense Chief Sustainability Officer. He previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Navy for Energy, where he was responsible for policies relating to the Department's installation and operational energy programs. Earlier in his career, Joe led investigations for the Senate Armed Services Committee and served on both Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence and the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. He has consulted on energy policy around the world and began his Investigations. He has consulted on energy policy around the world and began his career working on electricity restructuring and state level policies to encourage growth of clean energy markets.

In this episode, we discuss the impact of conflict and war on commodities markets through the lens of a brand new book by Dennis Voznesenski: War and Wheat. Dennis is an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and prior to that at Rabobank. Thoroughly researched, War and Wheat tells the story of how the agricultural markets fared during World War I, World War II and the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and elucidates key learnings on how commodity markets function and how commodity traders can better navigate the more volatile times ahead. The book is available here: https://www.amazon.com.au/War-Wheat-Navigating-markets-conflict/dp/1763580938

HC Group's Q2 Market Review - our quarterly magazine covering people trends, moves and analysis from within the global energy & commodities sector is available for download. Visit:https://www.hcgroup.global/insights/market-reviews/access-market-review-q2-2025

In 2024 the Lithium market saw huge price drops related to oversupply, a slowing EV adoption rate globally, as well as macroeconomic headwinds. Is this a pause or a more structural challenge? What is the long-term demand picture? How does geopolitics fit within that? Does technological change threaten the outlook? And in such a volatile market, why is risk management essential? Our guest is Caspar Rawles, Chief Operating Officer at Benchmark, the Independent Price Reporting Agency for Critical Minerals, including Lithium, which will soon be launching three Lithium futures contracts with the Intercontinental Exchange, ICE. What are those contracts and what do they mean for the sector?

Today, we return to the subject of commodity supply chain policy, permitting and regulation and policy in the US, with the One Big Beautiful Bill going through reconciliation. Less public, but no less momentous, we cover the Seven County Infrastructure Supreme Court decision, which may herald Sea change in how new energy and mining projects can get underway to meet both the growing energy demand but also the need for robust and resilient supply chains in the energy transition. Returning to the show is our guest, Peter Stahley, Senior Vice President at Cassidy & Associates, the bipartisan governmental relations firm, where Peter specializes in energy and mining.

Today, we return to the subject of investing in commodities, this time from an equities angle. How has the sector performed over the last couple of decades and how much diversification does it offer? How do you analyze and discover value in the sector? And are investors returning and how best to navigate investing in such a rapidly evolving sector? Our guest is Matt Zabloski, founder and chief investment officer of Delbrook Capital Advisors, a Vancouver-based fund manager, focused on alternative investment strategies in the metals and mining sector. Matt has had a long career investing in energy and natural resources including as a portfolio manager with Fidelity.

Today, we return to energy and AI. What will AI mean in terms of global energy consumption up to 2030 and beyond? And could that be offset by efficiencies and transformations generated by AI in our daily lives? Could AI even accelerating the energy transition? To do that, we are discussing International Energy Agency's latest paper - Energy and AI (https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai). A comprehensive review and deep dive in AI’s impacts on our world energy map. Our guests are the lead authors, Siddharth Singh and Thomas Spencer. Both are also part of the team that produce the World Energy Outlook annually.

We discuss the trilemma facing the energy and commodities markets - between security, affordability, and sustainability, what now matters in policy and investment decisions? In the previous US administration and in Europe, sustainability was a key policy driver. Under the new Trump administration, and indeed globally since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, security has come to the forefront. How should organizations think about these three facets? How is the world changing and what does that mean for the energy and commodities sector? Our guest is Clay Seigle, Senior Fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Clay holds the James R. Schlesinger chair in Energy and Geopolitics and is an experienced energy industry analyst with specialization in market intelligence and political risk. Clay provides policymakers and corporate leaders with thought leadership and strategic insights to navigate regional and global energy security challenges.

If uncertainty is the new normal – how can the commodities markets and participants adapt? What does that mean for costs, supply chains and people. In May we held our latest Live Event in London, in partnership with ITFA. The event was hosted by Aon, with additional sponsorship by Atradius, Brown Brothers Harriman, Coface, Natixis Partners, Pole Star Global, The Mercury Group and RESCOM. Our panellists debated themes including the sources of uncertainty, and what it means for markets, prices and participants. What are the impacts of tariffs and geopolitical tensions? What is the state of the talent landscape as a new generation of professionals, and new businesses, confront these challenges? Is a new generation of deep specialists ready? Joining podcast host, Paul Chapman was Stuart Lawson, Global Head at Aon Credit Solutions; Khushroo Pochkhanawalla, Commodity Risk Director at The Heineken Company; Matthew Chamberlain, CEO at the London Metal Exchange; Marieke Franssen, Managing Director of Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking and William Tully, Head of Business Development at Brown Brothers Harriman Commodities & Logistics.

Today, we discuss credit risk and stress testing in volatile and uncertain times. What is the function of credit risk within the commodities sector? How crucial is it? What does good look like - how best to organize, lead and deliver it? And what do we mean by stress testing? And how can organizations make themselves more robust for the future? Our guest is Jan-Peter Onstwedder. Jan-Peter has been head of commodity risk groups for global banks as well as at trading organizations and is now an Enco Insight Partner. As an Enco Insight partner, JP is providing independent, peer -to -peer, advice and to leaders within organizations that are developing or strengthening their risk and trading functions. For more on Enco’s advisory network visit: https://www.encoinsights.com/solutions/insight-partners

Today, we return to the subject of Renewable Natural Gas, which could be as much as 15 % of global natural gas supply by 2050, offering significant advantages both in its carbon intensity as well as driving a powerful circularity, capturing waste methane that would otherwise go into the atmosphere, driving biodiversity and providing significant optionality in trading. What is RNG? Where does it sit today in terms of global policy support and participants and what does its future hold? Our guests are Warren Feather and Ben Kruger. Warren was a Managing Director of Cargill and led their global oilseeds processing and renewables solutions businesses before joining Roeslein as a board advisor while Ben Kruger has joined Roeslein and Associates as the SVP of Renewables after a 25 -year career at Cargill, where he latterly was Director of Renewable Natural Gas and Specialty Oil Seeds. Roeslein itself is a global technology and engineering company that, through its Roeslein Renewables Group, is now developing projects around the world in renewable natural gas, offering turnkey solutions to agricultural customers, including finance and all technical aspects of project development.

Today we return to the oil market, a market that is in flux, both from a traditional supply and demand picture, but that is now also embroiled in geopolitics, an uncertain global trade environment and a potential recession. Is oil going lower for longer? And what about volatility? The last month or so has seen a dramatic return of volatility and associated results for traders, positive and negative. Is that set to continue? Our guest is Matt Smith, lead energy analyst for the US at the data and analytics company Kpler

Since 2017, the West’s awareness of its strategic vulnerabilities in critical minerals has been growing – yet in reality little progress has been made. How have various policies progressed or hindered the development of a domestic supply chain in the US and the West more broadly? What is the new Trump administration's approach to critical minerals? How is that impacting former efforts like the Inflation Reduction Act? And what does it mean for China and its response? Just how close are we to experiencing an outright scarcity on these critical minerals in the US and the West? And what would that mean for our economies? Our guest is mining entrepreneur and former Deputy Director for Batteries and Critical Materials at the US Department of Energy, Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes.

Today, we return to the Trump Administration and its global energy and commodities policies. What is a continuation of the Biden Administration and what has the potential to profoundly impact and change the nature of commodities trading and the opportunities within it? We discuss the Administration's policies surrounding Iran, surrounding Europe, Ukraine, Russia, China, critical minerals, as well as touching on some domestic policies. Our guest is Robert “RJ” Johnson, Senior Research Director at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Today we're releasing an episode outside of our normal schedule on tariffs and those on metals in particular. What tariffs are in place on metals and critical minerals? What has been the response particularly from China? What is the legal underpinning of those tariffs and how does that create uncertainty? What are the administration’s goals? And what does it mean for contracts? What does it mean for M&A? And what does it mean for markets? Our guest is Guy Winter, partner at Fasken, the global law firm, in their Global Mining Group. Guy is also on the advisory board of the Critical Minerals Association in the UK and on the UK's Department of Business and Trade Critical Minerals Expert Committee. He is also an author of fiction books - his latest two were The Billionaire Suicide Club and The Billionaire Suicide Club 2; Red queen Rising.

In Part 2, we continue our discussion on navigating the new Trump Administration. Why are metals and critical minerals central to the administrations agenda? What does it mean to prioritize security over economics and sustainability? How to manage the inherent internal conflicts between co-existing policies and statements and what the trading opportunities might be for the energy & commodities sector. We welcome back with Nick Kumleben, the Energy and Commodities Director at Green Mantle, the geopolitical and macro advisory firm that weaves in historical context to help organizations understand the current markets and opportunities within them.

The commodities sector faces a new and uncertain world. In this episode, we look at how to understand and how to navigate the new Trump administration and its impact on domestic and global markets, particularly around energy and commodities using analogies from history. What is signal…and what is noise. Our guest is Nick Kumleben. Nick is the energy and commodities director at Greenmantle, the advisory firm founded by Niall Ferguson, focused on geopolitical and macroeconomics, taking a deep understanding of history, to learn the lessons that can be applied to today's world. They advise funds, traders, and governments.