A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.
Thermal Coal
Europe: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.
Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.
Met Coal
Pricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.
Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.
Policy & Cost Curves
Inflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.
U.S. Power & Gas
Data-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.
Equities & Positioning
Watch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.
Listener Q&A Highlights
Coronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.
China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.
Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP
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Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network
Matt and Joe run a quick check on coal: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds help the setup.
Notes
Thermal: Europe’s API2 off spring lows; Newcastle firmed (~$110s). In China, burns up, stockpiles down, prices rising toward ~$100/t with some production curtailments..
Met: Recovered from ~$160/t with recent prints in the high-$180s to ~$197/t; could retest lows in Oct–Nov, but view is higher lows/highs into 2026-27 as quality supply tightens.
Costs & floors: Inflation has lifted global cost curves; today’s “floors” look like yesterday’s peaks.
U.S. power & gas: Data-center load + upcoming LNG capacity argue for firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.
Equity color: Accumulate quality on weakness; favor buyback/clean-balance-sheet names; watch M&A overhangs for rerates.
Stocks mentioned (symbols): BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP
Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.
Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com.
Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder
For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/ Disclaimer
For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network
Tickers Mentioned: $BTU, $ARLP, $AMR, $HCC, $METC, $GLEN.L
In this debut episode, Matt and Joe break down the fundamentals of the global coal market - starting with a deep dive into U.S. thermal coal basins and how they feed into domestic power demand and global exports.
We cover:
Key differences between thermal and metallurgical coal and their market drivers
U.S. coal basin economics: from Wyoming to Appalachia
How coal prices translate to cash flow and margins for major U.S. producers
Global price benchmarks: API2, Newcastle, Richards Bay
What’s driving recent price trends in China, India, Europe, and U.S. utilities
A primer on the steel cycle, metallurgical coal quality specs, and which companies stand to benefit
Featured equities: Core Natural Resources, Peabody Energy, Alliance Resource Partners, Alpha Metallurgical, Warrior Met Coal, Ramaco, Glencore, and Whitehaven
Expect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.
Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com.
Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder
For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/
