On this week’s episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg break down the surprising new partnership between NVIDIA and Intel, including a $5B investment and plans for co-developed CPU–GPU systems for data centers and PCs. They explore what this means for x86 in AI racks, AMD’s competitive position, and why Intel’s silence on Foundry raises big questions. The conversation also touches on Meta’s new Ray-Ban AR glasses—demo fails and all—and Huawei’s unexpected progress in advanced chipmaking. A packed episode full of strategy, irony, and hot takes on the future of semiconductors.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Apple iPhone launch event, highlighting the innovations in the iPhone Air and Apple's semiconductor strategy. They delve into Synopsys's disappointing earnings report and the subsequent market reactions, as well as Broadcom's position in the semiconductor landscape. The conversation also covers Nvidia's new CPX system and the implications for the market, concluding with a discussion on the funding of the AI boom and the financial strategies of major players like Oracle and OpenAI.
Ben and Jay unpack why Broadcom’s “fourth customer” (~$10B) custom-ASIC win reset sentiment even after a modest beat/raise, and how that squares with hyperscalers second-sourcing away from NVIDIA in the near term. They frame the true battleground as networking—Ethernet’s ubiquity vs. NVLink’s tight integration—then differentiate GPUs’ performance-per-watt advantages from custom ASIC cost calculus, arguing that “lumpiness” (program outcomes) is not “cyclicality” (inventory swings). They stress TAM realism: it’s easy to total up CapEx, but the ROI numerator (revenue/profit) is still unknowable. Structurally, TSMC remains the default winner, with a plausible Intel Foundry financing path in the wings, while Google looks more likely to “sell capacity” for TPUs than chips. Net: GPUs keep the bulk of spend through 2030 even as select first-party silicon scales, and the market should judge claims against networking choices and workload fit—not headlines.
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Nvidia and Marvell, focusing on the implications for the AI market and the challenges posed by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding China. They analyze Nvidia's growth projections, the complexities of ASICs, and the competitive landscape for AI servers, particularly highlighting Dell's position in the market. The discussion also touches on the nuances of CapEx spending and the importance of clear communication from companies to investors.
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent government investment in Intel, its implications for the semiconductor industry, and the competitive landscape of Nvidia's new technology. They explore the future of Intel, the challenges it faces in securing customers, and the significance of Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet announcement. The discussion also touches on the state of the analog devices market and anticipates Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, highlighting key areas of interest and potential impacts on the industry.
Takeaways
The U.S. government now owns 10% of Intel, signaling confidence in the company.
The investment is part of a broader strategy to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.
Intel's future hinges on securing customers and government support.
Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet allows for distributed GPU clusters across locations.
The competitive landscape is shifting, with Nvidia targeting Broadcom and Huawei.
Analog devices are seeing mixed signals in the market, particularly in automotive.
Robotics is an emerging area for analog devices, but still faces challenges.
Nvidia's upcoming earnings call is highly anticipated, with expectations of strong demand.
The relationship between the U.S. and China is affecting tech investments and sales.
The need for a strong board and expertise in manufacturing is crucial for Intel's success.
In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss various topics related to the semiconductor industry, including the implications of new regulations on companies like AMD and Nvidia, the challenges faced by cloud computing providers, the market dynamics affecting Applied Materials, and the potential government involvement in Intel's future. They explore the complexities of profitability, market competition, and the evolving landscape of technology and regulation.
Takeaways
New regulations on semiconductors may be unconstitutional but are unlikely to be challenged.
Profitability concerns overshadow the earnings of cloud computing companies.
Demand for GPU compute is high, but electricity constraints limit growth.
Applied Materials faces uncertainty due to vague guidance and market dynamics.
Government involvement in Intel could complicate the free market.
The distinction between ownership and governance is crucial in state-owned enterprises.
The future of AI and cloud computing is tied to infrastructure and capacity.
Investors are skeptical about the viability of Neo cloud models.
The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex regulatory environment.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings from AMD, highlighting their strong performance amidst market fluctuations and concerns about competition in the AI space. They delve into the growing importance of AI networking solutions and the recent release of OpenAI's open-source models, including GPT-5, which introduces a more collaborative approach to AI interactions. The conversation also touches on the uncertain future of AI and the challenges faced by Intel, concluding with a reflection on the evolving landscape of technology and its implications for the market.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from major tech companies, exploring themes of market dynamics, investment in AI, and the implications of CapEx spending. They delve into the concept of whether we are in a bubble, the challenges of monetizing AI, and the competitive landscape among tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon. The conversation also touches on the potential disruption from Apple in the search market, the role of Nvidia in AI, and the future of companies like Qualcomm and Arm in a rapidly evolving tech environment.
The conversation explores the implications of a potential TSMC monopoly in the semiconductor industry, discussing the risks it poses to pricing, innovation, and competition. The speakers emphasize the need for strategic decisions among semiconductor companies and the importance of considering commercial solutions to mitigate the risks associated with a monopoly.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the AI and semiconductor industries, focusing on Nvidia and AMD's approval to sell modified chipsets to China, the political dynamics influencing these decisions, and the competitive landscape with Huawei. They also analyze TSMC's earnings, the need for infrastructure upgrades to support AI agents, and the implications of Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys. The conversation concludes with a look at Marvell's leadership change and its potential impact on the industry.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the RISC-V ecosystem, including Global Foundries' acquisition of MIPS and the implications for the semiconductor industry. They also delve into Intel's challenges with its manufacturing processes and the shifting landscape of AI, highlighting the potential for both growth and caution in the current market dynamics.
In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Professor John Metzler discuss the current state and future prospects of the Japanese semiconductor industry, focusing on key players like TSMC and Rapidus. They explore insights from Metzler's recent trips to Japan, the challenges of talent acquisition, and the broader implications for global semiconductor competition. The discussion highlights the unique approaches being taken in Japan, including the integration of AI and photonics, and the importance of a sustainable business model for new ventures in the semiconductor space.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Marvell custom semiconductor event, the challenges faced in the custom chip business, and the evolving role of hyperscalers in chip design. They explore the future of ASICs versus GPUs, the growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry, and the impact of software on compute needs. The conversation also delves into chip design innovations, particularly the rise of chiplets, and the changing economics of semiconductor manufacturing.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the tech industry, focusing on Apple's WWDC and AMD's product roadmap. They explore Apple's integration of AI into its operating system and the implications for developers, as well as AMD's performance and its competitive stance against Nvidia. The conversation also highlights the importance of networking in AI infrastructure and the evolving business models in the AI space.
In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Broadcom's earnings and the implications of AI on the market. They explore the growth of the semiconductor segment, the challenges in ASIC development, and the innovations in networking with the introduction of Tomahawk 6. The conversation also highlights the increasing importance of storage solutions in AI applications and anticipates upcoming events in the tech world.
In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Austin Lyons discuss Nvidia's recent earnings report, the future of AI and inference, and the dynamics of the AI market, including the impact of China on Nvidia's revenue. They explore the differences between consumer and enterprise workloads, the role of financing in AI server sales, and the challenges of realizing ROI from AI investments. The discussion also touches on real-world applications of AI in business and the future of AI integration in consumer products.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the major highlights from Computex, including the dominance of AI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, and the implications of geopolitical factors on the tech industry. They also delve into Google's recent innovations at I/O, the challenges of monetizing AI, and the evolving landscape of consumer AI experiences. The conversation wraps up with insights on edge computing and the competitive dynamics in China's AI market.
In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, focusing on tariffs, AI budgets, and advancements in technology. They explore the implications of recent tariff discussions, the impact on supply chains, and the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure, particularly in Saudi Arabia. The conversation also highlights the evolution of AI factories and the need for localized infrastructure to meet national security and data sovereignty concerns.
In this episode, Ben and Jay welcome Patrick McGee, author of 'Apple in China', who discusses his extensive research on Apple's relationship with China. The conversation explores how Apple's investments and manufacturing strategies have significantly influenced China's technological landscape, as well as the cultural impact of Apple products in China. Patrick shares insights from his book, detailing the evolution of Apple's supply chain and the pivotal role of Foxconn in Apple's success. In this conversation, Patrick McGee discusses the intricate relationship between Apple and its supply chain, particularly focusing on Foxconn and Chinese manufacturers. He highlights how Apple's business model has influenced the manufacturing landscape in China, the challenges of replicating this model elsewhere, and the critical role of TSMC in Apple's operations. The discussion also touches on the implications of IP transfer and the impact of Tesla in the EV industry, showcasing the broader effects of Apple's strategies on global manufacturing and economics.
In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the latest earnings reports from Apple and Qualcomm, focusing on the implications of tariffs, supply chain resilience, and the shifting landscape of semiconductor manufacturing. They explore Apple's confidence in its business despite uncertainties, the significant manufacturing shift to India, and Qualcomm's diversification strategy in the IoT and automotive sectors. The conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities both companies face in a rapidly evolving market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, focusing on cost management strategies, Intel's advancements in foundry technology, and the competitive landscape with TSMC. They explore the implications of new technologies like Power Via and the shift towards chiplet architecture. Additionally, they delve into the concept of AI factories and how they represent a new approach to data center infrastructure, transforming it from a cost center to a profit center.
