On this week’s episode of the Rosenberg Round-Up, we discuss what’s behind the recent rebound in equities and the changing cross-asset picture, as well as what the 28% downward revision in employment growth is telling us. We also shed light on what lingering risks in the Commercial Real Estate sector mean for bank stocks.
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:50) — What’s changing relative asset prices, and some notes on Harris’ economic agenda
The Week Ahead (9:21) — Personal Income and Expenditure headline the week
The Spotlight (9:57) — The overlooked risks of rising CRE distress
Canada Corner (11:38) — Don’t shed a tear for the loonie
The September FOMC meeting is about how much to cut rates | A look at the Harris vs. Trump polls and what it means for markets | The case for gold is stronger than ever
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:44) — Cooling U.S. inflation puts the Fed on notice (despite hot retail sales)
The Week Ahead (10:12) — All eyes on the Democratic convention and Jackson Hole
The Spotlight (14:29) — $3,000 per ounce is still the target for gold
In our latest special interview episode, we welcome seasoned market economist and current Columbia Business School professor Brett House to discuss the Yen carry trade reversal sending shockwaves through markets, all things Powell and the Fed with a special look at Jackson Hole, Trump vs. Harris and the Bank of Canada
The Yen carry trade reversal (1:35) | The Fed’s assessment of the U.S. economy (10:16) | Three counter-arguments why this time is different (17:00) | What to expect from Jackson Hole (23:25) | Upcoming U.S. Presidential election (25:35) | Any concern about the BoC’s rate cuts (30:45)
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Taking stock after a volatile week | Macro data will drive markets | Going defensive
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (1:06) — Dissecting the sell-off
The Week Ahead (9:40) — Markets primed to sell on dovish surprises
The Spotlight (10:54) — How to reposition the equity portfolio
Canada Corner (12:00) — Bank of Canada back to balance
The evolving global rate picture | Earnings to drive market in macro-lite week ahead | How to invest in the land of the rising Yen
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:47) — The Fed stayed on the sidelines while the BoJ hiked and the BoE cut
The Week Ahead (8:05) — A light data flow puts earnings center-stage
The Spotlight (9:45) — Japan: what a fading carry trade means for investors
The bull run has come to a grinding halt as large-cap tech retreats from overstretched valuations. But the concerning macro narrative driving the rest of the market deserves more attention.
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:00:52) — The bull run grinds to a halt as the global macro outlook weakens
The Week Ahead (0:12:30) — Fed and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls take center stage
The Spotlight (0:16:02) — We introduce our new and improved Beige Book Sentiment Index
Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:40) — The market shifts its focus from growth to value — but don’t call it the “Trump Trade”
The Week Ahead (7:05) — Flash PMIs and U.S. Q2 GDP
The Spotlight (9:00) — A bullish view on (most) U.K. assets following a historic election
Canada Corner (16:52) — Bank of Canada prepares a second cut
Powell signaled the need for more “confidence” in his congressional testimony – did a light inflation print deliver it? We also touch on political and economic developments in Europe, and shine our spotlight on the upcoming earnings season.
Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:41) — U.S. CPI delivers a downside surprise, and why we were disappointed by Powell’s testimony
The Week Ahead (11:21) — Activity data in the U.S. as politics dominates the news flow
The Spotlight (14:19) — What to look for and where to find value as Q2 earnings season kicks off
In our latest special interview episode, we welcome back our Founder and President, David Rosenberg, to get his views on a perplexing stock market, what we can learn from the past, and how to think about the U.S. election – among much else.
Is this even a bull market? (0:30)
David's Philosophy on Investing in this market (2:57)
What is the discount rate telling us right now? ( 5:24)
How the average U.S. household invests? (9:00)
Dave's thoughts on index funds (16:10)
Investing around elections ( 21: 54 )
Final thoughts on the equity market ( 28:42 )
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
We reflect on a week dominated by global politics, and shine our spotlight on what the shifting probabilities around the U.S. election mean for markets
Visit our sponsor Kalshi and get a $20 credit: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Please get in touch at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
In This Episode
The Week in Review (0:45) — A compressed Independence Day week couldn’t stop the rally
The Week Ahead (6:36) — Round 2 of the French election will open the week before making way for U.S. CPI
The Spotlight (9:40) — What the shifting probabilities in the U.S. election will mean for the markets
This week we cover a mixed bag in data, check in on Canadian inflation, and shine our spotlight on the U.S. savings rate and its impact on consumption.
The Week in Review (1:05) — Markets took a breather as the economic data sent mixed signals
The Week Ahead (4:48) — All eyes on nonfarm payrolls
The Spotlight (8:03) — What the ultra-low savings rate tells us bout the U.S. consumer
Canada Corner (12:54) — Will an inflation hiccup derail further cuts?
Please get in touch at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
Visit our sponsor Kalshi: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg
This week we cover the extreme optimism in equity markets against a backdrop of softening economic data. We shine our spotlight on how declining pricing power and margin compression are bringing down inflation in the U.S.
The Week in Review (1:03) — The bulls charge; retail sales slump; Bank of England stands pat
The Week Ahead (6:37) —Europe politics comes to the forefront in a data-light week
The Spotlight (8:08) — Firms are losing pricing power, dragging on margins and helping disinflate the economy
Canada Corner (12:57) — The BoC is not concerned about a weaker Loonie, more cuts will follow
Please get in touch at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This week we cover the Fed’s puzzling projections, falling inflation, and the European elections. We shine our spotlight on the ups and downs of a consumer recession.
The Week in Review (1:15) — Did the Fed even look at the soft inflation report that dropped during its meeting?
The Week Ahead (12:44) — The BoE rate decision headlines the week, while retail sales and industrial production data drop stateside.
The Spotlight (13:38) — Where do consumers cut the most in recessions — and how should your portfolio be positioned?
Please get in touch at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This week we cover the onset of the global cutting cycle, as the BoC and the ECB took important first steps this week. Then we shine our spotlight beyond the S&P 500, arguing that small is beautiful.
The Week in Review (0:40) — The BoC and the ECB ease and the U.S. data softens
The Week Ahead (6:56) — A potential damp squib from the FOMC — but keep an eye on CPI
The Spotlight (8:06) — Looking for value beyond the S&P 500
Please get in touch at: information@rosenbergresearch.com
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This week we highlight the pile-up of negative data revisions that are changing the cyclical picture, we touch on the outlook for the Fed as its peers prepare to cut, and we shine our spotlight on new long-term growth outlook estimates for the world’s largest economies.
The Week in Review (1:45) — The latest Beige Book, GDP revisions, and Dimon on private credit
The Week Ahead (7:14) — The ECB and BoC to cut (?)
The Spotlight (8:36) — Where to invest for the long term
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
In our latest occasional interview episode, we welcome Gerhard Massenbauer, chief analyst at Treasury Scout, to the Rosenberg Roundup. Gerhardt is an incisive commentator with over 25 years of experience in global and European FX and rates who is never afraid to make a bold call.
We cover the opportunities opening up in Europe, what the sequencing of rate cuts will mean for investors, how the post-election evolution of fiscal policy will drive global interest rates, as well as touching on Gerhard’s view on gold, and his global FX picks.
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This week, we cover the latest signal from earnings, and we go toe-to-toe with the KC Fed on household balance sheets
The Week in Review (0:36) — AI-related stocks soar on strong earnings while consumers tighten their belts
The Week Ahead (4:11) — The Beige Book will bring the latest signal from the real economy
The Spotlight (5:01) — Why it’s wrong to think that a “record” low debt-to-income ratio means households can keep spending
Canada Corner (8:38) — Another promising inflation report out of Canada
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here:
This week, we cover the trifecta of soft data that’s sent stocks to new highs. Our spotlight shines on Emerging Market stocks, and what the (eventual) fall in global interest rates will mean for them.
The Week in Review (1:21) — Why softening U.S. data has pushed the S&P 500 to new highs
The Spotlight (8:42) — Not your grandfather’s Emerging Markets
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial
This week, what a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls meant for markets, and how to position for the opportunity in America’s aging capital stock.
The Week in Review (1:06) — A rare weak employment report and the Swedish Riksbank cuts rates
The Week Ahead (7:19) — CPI and retail sales headline a big week for macro data
The Spotlight (7:41) — Who will benefit from the replacement and repair of America’s private capital stock?
For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: