Ramaphosa touts progress as G20 faces boycotts, scepticism
As South Africa hosts the G20 leadership summit this week, President Cyril Ramaphosa has positioned the moment as evidence of national progress. Yet the broader economic picture remains mixed, with many of the country's underlying structural problems persisting despite pockets of improvement.
Ramaphosa's upbeat public messaging has been somewhat undermined by the fact that the leaders from several of the world's leading economies have declined to attend the G20, including US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Argentinian President Javier Milei. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's attendance also remains uncertain.
The stated reasons for their absence vary, but chief among them is Trump's vocal criticism of the South African government's perpetuation of controversial race-based policies and the Expropriation Act, which enables the State to expropriate citizens' property for nil compensation, among other issues.
"While the G20 takes place amid higher geopolitical tensions than we would have liked, South African hosts have managed this as well as could be expected. The Trump administration has said it will not send a delegation.
"This is unfortunate, particularly as the US will be chairing the G20 next year. But it also provides a stark illustration to the political leaders who will be attending of why we need to act to protect the rules-based trading system that is key to international prosperity," Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) CEO Busisiwe Mavuso commented in her latest weekly newsletter, published on November 17.
Meanwhile, the US has made it clear that it would oppose any statement beyond the chair's statement, marking the first time since the G20's inception in 2008 that a consensus leaders' declaration will not be issued.
Running parallel to the G20 was the B20 - the business forum for engaging with the G20, which kicked off in March - which BLSA and Business Unity South Africa had jointly chaired. Since then, eight task teams, each headed by a senior South African business leader, had developed detailed recommendations to feed into the G20 process, Mavuso explained.
She noted that the B20 had developed 30 recommendations across the task teams. These covered areas such as digital transformation, employment, education, improving the global trade environment, infrastructure finance and debt management, among others.
Mavuso said the recommendations focused on transitioning to clean energy, agricultural innovation and industrial growth in Africa, while several addressed disruptions to trade which had been particularly damaging to South Africa - especially the diplomatic fallout with the US, which had led to Ramaphosa advocating for new trade and investment deals for Africa, as well as climate-responsive trade.
As the G20 leadership summit launches this week, Ramaphosa has touted recent economic data as evidence of South Africa's emerging recovery, such as Statistics South Africa's report of a slight decline in the official unemployment rate to 31.9% in the third quarter, down from 33.2% previously. About 250 000 additional people were recorded as employed, with construction accounting for about 130 000 of these jobs.
While any improvement is welcome, South Africa's unemployment rate remains among the highest globally and the gains come off an extremely low base after years of stagnation and job losses.
Meanwhile, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on November 12, projected another primary budget surplus, attributed to higher revenue collection and restrained spending, excluding debt servicing costs.
"We have a government that has regained control of the nation's finances and turned the trajectory toward sustainable, growth-supporting fiscal management. The MTBPS last week showed continued fiscal...

G20 Summit: Our doors are open to the US - Lamola
Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola said on Monday that South Africa's doors are still open if the US decides it wants to participate in the G20 Leaders' Summit.
Lamola provided an update on the preparations for G20 Leaders' Summit scheduled to take place on Saturday and Sunday, and confirmed that activities are on track, with numerous heads of State and government from G20 member countries and invited guest countries confirmed for participation.
"In total, 42 countries are confirmed for participation at various levels. This includes twenty G20 members, excluding the US, 16 guest countries and 6 countries representing Regional Economic Communities in Africa, the Caribbean and East Asia," he said.
Lamola said the Presidency has started negotiations of the South African Declaration.
Last week sherpas virtually began negotiations on the declaration and began in-person negotiations on Sunday, at the 4th Sherpa meeting which is scheduled to conclude on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump said that no US official would attend the gathering over widely discredited claims that white people are being persecuted in South Africa.
"We have done everything possible to encourage robust engagements to allow the negotiations to happen in an open fair platform, even with the US when they raised concerns we did our best to accommodate them and they did come back in to some of the meetings, at some point it was indicated that they will be fully participants and including at the Leaders' Summit that they will be represented at the Vice President level.
"But they have now decided out of their own volution and not being push out of the G20 by South Africa," noted Lamola.
He said South Africa is ready to continue with the meeting.
"Our doors remain open for them if they want to participate at the Leaders' level of the Summit, because they are not expelled, they decided on their own.
"…we are ready to continue with the meeting, with those that are present to negotiate and come out with outcomes of the declaration," he stated.
South Africa is optimistic that with those present, a consensus can be built for the leader's summit to adopt a declaration.
Lamola pointed out that the G20 Members commended South Africa on the "exceptional success" achieved in hosting the different G20 work streams since assumption of G20 Presidency.
South Africa viewed the diversity of the G20 nations as a strength rather than a source of division and has preserved the unity of the Group in pursuit of its priorities, he said.
Meanwhile, Lamola said government thanked City of Johannesburg and Gauteng Province residents for their "patience" relating to the disruptions over the G20 preparations.
"…more efforts are also being made to minimise disruptions as far as possible, especially on our roads in and around the venues and relevant ports of entry.
"We have seen how hosting a major event of this magnitude can be a catalyst for higher levels of service delivery and look forward to sustaining and expanding the improvements we have seen," he pointed out.
Lamola noted fears that some of the service delivery initiatives will be discontinued after the G20.
"I say look at electricity, we were told prior to the last elections that the sustained period without loadshedding prior to the last local government elections was because of elections, today were a year and some few months after elections and without loadshedding, I believe the G20 has served as a catalyst for to turn the corner on service delivery in the city of Joburg and across the country," he stated.
He also noted the preparations for the G20 Social Summit, which he said are going well.
He said 5 000 people are expected to attend the Summit, a three-day event, at the Birchwood Hotel in Boksburg.
Lamola said it is government's firm belief that the outcomes of the South African Summit will be ambitious and leave a legacy for the cause of the Af...

AG holds municipal accounting officer personally responsible for case of financial mismanagement
Auditor-General (AG) Tsakani Maluleke on Friday issued the first certificate of debt (CoD) when North West Ngaka Modiri Molema district municipality accounting officer Allan Losaba was held to be personally liable for financial loss of more that R4-million.
This is the first time the AG has issued a CoD since the Public Audit Act gave her the powers when it was amended in April 2019.
This CoD follows Losaba's failure to recover financial losses from overpayments for water tankering services.
"The CoD amounts to R R4 616 074.66, together with interest applicable to the period between 30 days after this certificate has been served and the date of full payment of the debt due," Maluleke said.
The municipality extended a service provider's contract multiple times for drought relief and water and sanitation services, during which overclaiming on kilometres and working hours were identified, leading to significant financial losses.
Maluleke said her office identified a material irregularity (MI) during audits, which included non-compliance and potential financial loss.
Maluleke pointed out that Losaba was notified and given opportunities to address the MI but failed to implement necessary actions or recover losses, which led to Maluleke issuing the CoD.
She noted that that Losaba initially responded to the MI notification and made several commitments to address the MI, and the assessment of the audit team was that appropriate action was being taken in the first year.
"However, the commitments were not implemented, and recommendations for the recovery of the financial losses were included in the 2020-21 audit report. The accounting officer still failed to implement the recommendations, which led to the issuing of the remedial action in terms of section 5A(2) of the PAA, 2004, for the accounting officer to recover the financial losses. Notwithstanding the issuing of the remedial action, the accounting officer still failed to recover the financial losses," Maluleke explained.
The mayor is responsible for recovering the amount specified in the CoD and must report progress regularly to the Auditor-General.
Maluleke emphasised the importance of accountability and the need for swift action from accounting officers to prevent the use of remedial powers.
She highlighted that her office remained committed to enforcing these powers to ensure good governance and financial management in the public sector.

Home Affairs confirms Palestinian travellers did not apply for asylum
Minister of Home Affairs Dr Leon Schreiber confirmed on Friday that none of the 153 travellers from Palestine applied from asylum.
On Thursday, a chartered flight arrived in Johannesburg with 153 Palestinian travellers with no departure stamps in some of their passports, no return tickets for some or addresses for their accommodation in South Africa.
Holders of ordinary Palestinian passports have 90 days of visa-exempt access to South Africa, subject to security and verification procedures.
But because of the discrepancies in this case, the Border Management Authority (BMA) could not allow the Palestinian passengers entry right away, as further verifications had to be undertaken.
Schreiber noted that government interacted with the Palestinian embassy and other role-players, in which it was established that the absence of stamps, return tickets and accommodation addresses did not indicate that the travellers wished to apply for asylum.
"While these processes were unfolding, vulnerable members of the travelling company were disembarked onto airconditioned busses," he explained.
Once it was confirmed that the travellers would be provided with accommodation and care during their visit, Schreiber presented the new fact set to the BMA Commissioner for consideration, including on humanitarian grounds.
"Once satisfied that the absence of certain elements from their itinerary would not leave them destitute in South Africa in the absence of any asylum claims, the travellers were granted entry into South Africa on the standard 90-day visa exemption, subject to compliance with the standard conditions," he explained.
He noted that by the time that entry was granted, 23 members of the group had already taken flights to other destinations.
Meanwhile the department said it noted social media reports by the Palestinian embassy, indicating that "the travel of these 153 Palestinians was arranged by an unregistered and misleading organization that exploited the tragic humanitarian conditions of our people in Gaza, deceived families, collected money from them, and facilitated their travel in an irregular and irresponsible manner".
Schreiber said this entity later attempted to disown any responsibility once complications arose.
He highlighted that his department would continue to work with the Palestinian embassy and the South African security cluster to probe these claims.

South Africa will hand G20 over to US 'empty chair', president says
President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Friday South Africa will symbolically hand over the G20 presidency to an "empty chair" in the absence of US leadership at the summit next week, while stressing the need to repair trade ties with Washington.
US President Donald Trump said last week no government official would attend the Group of 20 summit on November 22-23 in South Africa because of what he said were "human rights abuses" - citing widely debunked assertions about white South Africans being "slaughtered" and chased off their land.
Trump has said that refugee admissions to the US this year will be focused largely on Afrikaners, who are mainly the descendants of Dutch settlers and make up the majority of South Africa's white population.
"I have said in the past, I don't want to hand over to an empty chair, but the empty chair will be there, (I will) probably symbolically hand over to that empty chair and then talk to President Trump...," Ramaphosa said, responding to questions from reporters in Soweto, where he was overseeing a clean-up for the summit.
South African officials are increasingly exasperated with Trump's claims that Afrikaners are victims of ethnic cleansing. They deny that anyone faces discrimination based on their race in the Black-majority country.
Ramaphosa said his priority was to maintain economic ties with one of its biggest trade partners.
"We export products to that country that in the end don't end up in the White House. They end up in the hands of consumers in the United States," he said.
"There could well be a view that we should not engage with the United States. (But) sometimes you have to talk to people who may not be very friendly ... to advance the interests of your own people".

Ramaphosa names new environment, deputy trade ministers
President Cyril Ramaphosa has named new environment and deputy trade ministers, appointing people from his party's main coalition partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA).
Ramaphosa's office said in a statement late on Wednesday that Willem Aucamp would be forestry, fisheries and environment minister, and Alexandra Abrahams one of two deputy trade, industry and competition ministers.
Aucamp replaces the DA's Dion George, and Abrahams fills a position left vacant since June, when Ramaphosa fired the DA's Andrew Whitfield for breaking cabinet rules by travelling abroad without his permission.
The DA said it had requested Aucamp and Abrahams' appointments, which bring the number of its positions in Ramaphosa's cabinet back to 12, the same number it had when the coalition was formed in June last year.

Civil society rejects 'right-wing Afrikaner genocide' narrative ahead of G20
Civil society organisation Defend our Democracy on Thursday rejected efforts to "advance right-wing and populist politics" that seek to undermine South Africa's democratic principles, exacerbate racial tensions and problematise immigration.
The organisation said persistent disinformation regarding an alleged Afrikaner genocide undermines South Africa's constructional democracy.
Defend our Democracy said the global shifts toward nationalist and right-wing politics need to be countered by the values of mutual respect, underpinned by human dignity.
The organisation noted the intended boycott of the G20 Summit by the US President Donald Trump, stemming from his recent assertions shared on his Truth Social media platform, alleging that "Afrikaners are being killed and slaughtered, and their land and farms are being illegally confiscated".
"This is a continuation of a persistent campaign to not only undermine our sovereignty but also seeks to spread disinformation and sow racial division within South Africa's public discourse and amongst its people," it said.
Defend our Democracy highlighted that these utterances are nothing new, and have no factual evidentiary basis.
The G20 Summit is due to be held in Johannesburg later this month.
"We remain committed to advancing the cause of a just and equitable future in which our melting pot of diversity finds equitable expression, which is strengthened by our constitutional democracy that seeks to protect the rights and liberties of all," Defend our Democracy stated.
It urged all South Africans to condemn the disinformation and to advance the ideals of Ubuntu and democracy.

Ramaphosa reiterates government's shift from consumption to investment
President Cyril Ramaphosa has reiterated government's strategic shift in government spending during his address at the 2025 National Construction Summit in Ekurhuleni, on November 13, promising the prioritisation of long-term investment over consumptive social spending and subsidies.
"We are shifting the composition of spending from consumption to investment. Capital payments are the fastest-growing expenditure item on our national Budget. They are expected to increase to about 7.5% over the medium term," Ramaphosa said.
His remarks reiterate Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's statements made on November 12 during the presentation of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement that signalled the recalibration of the government's fiscal priorities, responding to longstanding criticisms that government funds have disproportionately focused on social grants and subsidies instead of infrastructure and future-oriented development.
Ramaphosa linked this shift in fiscal focus directly to the construction industry, describing it as a critical driver of job creation and economic growth.
"Infrastructure investment is one of the most effective levers for stimulating economic growth. This is evident in the statistics that we have just seen earlier this week. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey indicates a decrease in the official unemployment rate from 33.2% in the second quarter of this year to 31.9% in the third quarter, and long may this continue.
"Construction was the biggest contributor and this gives us hope. This gives us the ability to look forward to greater growth in this industry," he said.
Ramaphosa said that, by investing in infrastructure and capital projects rather than expanding consumption-based programmes, the government aims to stimulate sustainable economic growth and create employment opportunities, whereby infrastructure can become the "flywheel" for broader development.
He highlighted that more than 250 fully funded infrastructure projects, valued at more than R250-billion were already under way, covering water, energy, transport and digital networks.
Moreover, Ramaphosa highlighted the medium-term R1-trillion commitment by government - announced in May - to support infrastructure development.
"This is the very first time in our country's history . . . that we have committed such a large amount of money to infrastructure," he claimed, noting that the funding would not only support public works but also catalyse private-sector participation and innovation.
Alongside public investment, Ramaphosa noted the importance of enabling private-sector participation. He noted amendments to public-private partnership regulations and guidelines for unsolicited bids, which were designed to encourage businesses to propose innovative infrastructure projects, which, if financially viable, would be approved for construction.
"Unsolicited bids mean that when people in the private sector have ideas on how we can improve our infrastructure build, they should come forward. They should be enabled to come forward and present their ideas. And if their ideas are innovative enough and financially sustainable, we will then be able to sign them on and say, 'Go ahead and construct the idea that you've put forward,'" he said.
Ramaphosa emphasised that this focus on long-term growth was paired with a strong commitment by government to protecting infrastructure. He warned that criminal activity, including construction mafias, cable theft and vandalism, would face uncompromising law enforcement action.
"If they continue to do that, they shall be arrested and sent behind bars. The law enforcement agencies will continue to deal with those who break the law. We will not let anyone derail these efforts. We will not negotiate with construction mafias. We will not yield to the cable thieves or those who vandalise infrastructure . . . We have declared war on the construction mafias and the...

Families of anti-Apartheid activists unhappy with delays in TRC inquiry
Survivors and families of victims of Apartheid-era crimes expressed disappointment with the delays in the commission of inquiry into political interference in the investigation and prosecution of Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) cases, but reaffirmed their commitment to the commission.
The first sitting of the commission of inquiry, chaired by Justice Sisi Khampepe, got off to a rocky start on Monday, after it was postponed to November 26, following an objection by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) and the Minister of Justice to the involvement of chief evidence leader, Advocate Ishmael Semenya, in the proceedings of the commission.
The families, and the Foundation for Human Rights (FHR), filed a court application against President Cyril Ramaphosa and the government in January, seeking R167-million in constitutional damages for what they say is government's "gross failure" to adequately investigate and prosecute Apartheid-era political crimes following the TRC.
The sitting was scheduled to begin with arguments on whether the Calata Group witnesses could be led by their own counsel.
"This was to be followed by opening statements and the family witnesses, led either by their counsel or the evidence leaders, depending on the ruling of the commission," said the FHR.
The foundation pointed out that the adjournment to deal with the recusal collapsed the first hearing of the commission, which had been set down for three weeks, and at which 15 witnesses were to testify.
"This results in a significant waste of taxpayer money, given the costs of the five government legal teams, the commission itself, and those who must fund their own attendance at the hearing," it said.
The foundation pointed out that on September 18, the attorneys for the Calata Group had written to Khampepe requesting that Semenya be excluded from deliberations on the Prosecution Policy amendments, since in 2008 he had represented the NPA and the Justice Minister in a constitutional challenge to those amendments.
"On 19 September 2025, the Judge confirmed in a letter to [law firm] Webber Wentzel that she had acceded to this request. Copies of both letters were forwarded to counsel for the NPA at that time," it explained.
The FHR highlighted that despite being aware of the possible conflict of Semenya for nearly seven weeks, the NPA did not raise any objections or bring an application for his removal or recusal.
"…only in their objection and arguments filed last week, addressing the question of the Calata Group leading their witnesses, did they and the Minister of Justice raise a general objection to his participation. Even by the start of the first hearing on Monday, 10 November 2025, neither party had prepared an application for his removal," the foundation explained.
The FHR noted that at the hearing on Monday, counsel for the Minister indicated that her client would abide by the commission's ruling of September 19.
Counsel for the NPA confirmed that he had not prepared a recusal application and would comply with the commission's directions.
The foundation said the long adjournment caught the families by surprise.
"They assumed that once the recusal directions had been given, that Semenya would be required to stand down pending the outcome of the recusal application; and that arguments would proceed on whether the Calata Group witnesses could be led by their own counsel.
"This would then be followed by the opening statements, and the family witnesses would then be led either by their counsel or the evidence leaders, depending on the commission's ruling," it added.
The foundation said the commission cannot lose three weeks of hearings considering how long the proceedings have already been delayed.
"More than five months have elapsed since the establishment of the commission on 29 May 2025. The current sitting was set down between 10 and 28 November 2025, meaning it will have on...

Batohi tells Parly committee NPA remains vulnerable after State capture
National Director of Public Prosecutions Advocate Shamila Batohi confirmed receiving classified intelligence about attempts to compromise prosecutors and certain cases, as well as information regarding a potentially corrupt prosecutor, which she referred to the Investigating Directorate Against Corruption (IDAC).
The Parliamentary Ad Hoc committee investigating allegations by KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi concluded hearing evidence from Batohi on Tuesday.
She addressed allegations of an organised crime network involving drug cartels, business figures and possible infiltration of the criminal justice system, including the South African Police Service (Saps), the judiciary and the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).
Batohi also spoke on prosecutorial conduct and the working relationship between the IDAC and the Political Killings Task Team (PKTT), including whether IDAC or its officials may have interfered in police investigations or exceeded their mandate.
Committee chairperson Molapi Lekganyane pointed out that on the issue of possible infiltration within the justice system, Batohi acknowledged that the NPA remains vulnerable to compromise and is still recovering from the effects of State capture.
The committee accepted Batohi's request not to disclose the sensitive details at this stage.
Lekganyane said Batohi explained that her direct involvement had been limited and referenced testimony given by KwaZulu-Natal Director of Public Prosecutions Advocate Elaine Harrison before the Madlanga Commission.
The committee expressed concerns over the limited detail provided regarding collaboration between the NPA and the PKTT, noting that Batohi referred to evidence already presented elsewhere.
Batohi also briefed the committee on the NPA's internal integrity structures, noting that between 2019 and 2024, the Office for Ethics and Accountability handled 58 complaints of corruption and misconduct, several of which led to dismissals and criminal charges.
"In her concluding remarks, Batohi reaffirmed the urgent need for legislative amendments to provide robust protection and support mechanisms for whistleblowers and witnesses, who are vital in the fight against corruption," Lekganyane said.
The committee will continue its inquiry on Thursday, to hear evidence from Chief of Staff in the Office of suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu, Cedrick Nkabinde.
Meanwhile, last week Mchunu voluntarily handed over his electronic devices to Saps investigators as part of the ongoing investigation.

Civil society wants action against gag orders on Open Secrets
Twenty-three civil society and media organisations are urging Chief Justice Mandisa Maya to consider measures to safeguard against the excessive use of gagging orders imposed on Open Secrets.
The civil society and media organisations wrote to Maya to express concern, urging her to issue guidance to judicial officers reaffirming the presumption of open justice and cautioning against the harmful effects of pre-publication interdicts.
On Monday, Open Secrets issued a statement saying it couldn't speak on a matter of significant public importance.
"We are not permitted to disclose anything related to the matter including the names of the parties that may be involved. What we can say is simple: efforts to muzzle public-interest journalism endanger everyone's right to know," it said.
The civil society organisations want Maya to encourage judicial education on balancing rights to freedom of expression, media freedom, privacy and reputation.
Open Secrets has been prohibited even from sharing the court order or discussing any details such as the date it was granted, the judge who granted it, or the court which issued the order.
"But there can be no mistaking its breadth: Open Secrets is effectively silenced, not only prevented from reporting, but from even explaining why it cannot do so," the organisations stated.
They said the order undermined South Africa's constitutional commitment to open justice and the public's right to know.
"Moreover, the breadth of the order immunises those who seek it, and the court granting it, from scrutiny, and so strikes at the very transparency on which public confidence in the judiciary depends", write the organisations.
They added that the Open Secrets matter is not an isolated case.
"Reports suggest that similarly sweeping gagging orders are being more frequently sought, and granted, against journalists and civil society actors. If left unchecked, this pattern risks chilling public-interest investigation and eroding public confidence in the judiciary," they warned.

South Africa starts trial of first self-made vaccine in 50 years
South Africa started a clinical trial for its oral cholera inoculation, the first developed from scratch locally in 50 years as President Cyril Ramaphosa has joined continent-wide calls for growing vaccine self-sufficiency.
Less than 1% of the world's vaccines are made in Africa, even as infectious diseases are the leading cause of death on the continent, especially in children younger than five. Only a handful of African countries have vaccine-production facilities, with South Africa and Senegal the sole nations in the region with capacity to make them from start to finish.
If the trial is successful, the Biovac Institute - a partly State-owned developer - will sell the vaccine from 2028. Recent global outbreaks of the diarrhoeal disease have raised demand for inoculations.
Cholera, which tops the list of the five biggest outbreaks in Africa this year, has caused almost 7 000 deaths from about 300 000 suspected cases. The continent, which is also grappling with mpox, measles, dengue and Lassa fever, accounts for 94% of all cholera deaths.
Contracted by ingesting contaminated food or water and driven by conflict, poverty and climate change, cholera is resurging in several countries, according to the World Health Organization. This complicates containment efforts and strains fragile health systems.
"This development addresses a critical, life-saving need, given the ongoing global shortages of the vaccine amid recurring cholera outbreaks," Biovac Chief Executive Officer Morena Makhoana said at a briefing Tuesday.
Biovac has ramped up its ability to make vaccines and last week launched a product-development laboratory in Cape Town to ensure a pipeline of vaccines and other therapeutics.

Goldman sees South Africa ratings upgrade this week after budget
Goldman Sachs expects an improvement in South Africa's public finances to pave the way for a sovereign credit-rating upgrade on Friday, days after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers a budget update.
S&P Global Ratings, which assesses South Africa's long-term foreign debt at BB-, three notches below investment grade with a positive outlook, is scheduled to review the nation's credit assessment at the end of the week.
"We think they're quite likely to upgrade," Andrew Matheny, an economist at Goldman Sachs said in an interview.
A ratings upgrade would mark a significant milestone for South Africa, improving sentiment toward the country and its assets. It would also signal growing confidence in the country's fiscal consolidation efforts, that have been marked by large deficits and repeated bailouts to flailing State-owned companies.
When Godongwana delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement at 2 pm in Cape Town on Wednesday, the National Treasury is expected to meet or beat its main fiscal deficit forecast. In May, the Treasury projected a gap of 4.6% for the 2025-26.
"They're outperforming by a large margin, and likely to be telling a pretty constructive story on the fiscal picture," Matheny said.
His views align with four of nine economists in a Bloomberg survey, including those at Bank of America and RMB Morgan Stanley, who also expect an upgrade this year.
Rating agencies have laid out three things they're looking for: slightly better growth, continued fiscal consolidation, and no new State-owned enterprise bailouts, Matheny said. "If our expectations for the MTBPS are confirmed, we think those targets; they are likely to pull the trigger and upgrade."
Still, others, such as Citigroup's South Africa economist Gina Schoeman, expect an upgrade only next year.
"We think S&P's November 14 credit review is still too early for an upgrade," she said. But one in 2026 is possible if gross domestic product growth strengthens, supported by higher fixed investment, a stabilised debt ratio, and a more stable government of national unity formed after the African National Congress failed to win an outright majority in the 2024 elections, she said. A dispute over the national budget earlier this year had threatened its survival.

South Africa's official unemployment rate dips in third quarter
South Africa's unemployment rate fell slightly in the third quarter of this year, as jobs were added in construction, social services and trade, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.
The official jobless rate stood at 31.9% in July-September, down from 33.2% in April-June.
Unemployment rose above 30% five years ago during the Covid-19 pandemic and has been stuck there since, despite repeated government initiatives to try to boost job creation.
Six of the 10 industries tracked by Statistics South Africa recorded employment gains in the third quarter, while four saw decreases.
The most jobs were added in construction (130 000 jobs), community and social services (116 000) and trade (108 000).
Stats SA said it had updated its methodology in line with International Labour Organization guidelines.
Statistics official Solly Molayi said the new methodology had contributed to the job gains in construction, as it meant more informal jobs had been captured.
Another official noted unemployment had tended to fall in the third quarter in recent years.
Africa's biggest economy picked up pace in the second quarter, though growth remains sluggish.
Electricity supply has improved and logistics bottlenecks eased, but weak domestic demand means firms have held back on investing.
Gina Schoeman, Citi's South Africa economist, said investment as a share of gross domestic product would need to rise from 14% to around 16% to achieve a meaningful dent in unemployment.
"To get to job numbers doing better, you first need to invest in actual capital expenditure and expand your business," she said.

Ramaphosa urges G20 leaders to act against inequality ahead of meeting
President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday that inequality makes the world "less stable, fuels conflict and undermines" democracy, urging G20 leaders to recognise the extent and urgency of the problem of inequality, and to act accordingly.
Ahead of the start of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg on November 22, Ramaphosa wrote in his weekly letter to the nation that it will be the first time the G20 will focus on inequality and consider an in-depth report of this nature.
He explained that when South Africa took over the Presidency of the G20 nearly a year ago, it identified equality as one of the pillars of its term, alongside solidarity and sustainability.
"We chose to focus on equality because it is essential to a more stable, prosperous and sustainable world. If the G20 is going to live up to its mission to tackle pressing global economic and financial issues, then it needs to significantly and urgently reduce inequality," he said.
He highlighted that global wealth inequality is stark.
"The world's richest 10% account for more than half of total global income. These people account for a staggering 74% of total global wealth. The human cost of these inequalities is severe; one in four people globally face moderate or severe food insecurity," he pointed out.
Ramaphosa pointed out that it is the reason why he appointed an Extraordinary Committee of Independent Experts on Global Inequality as part of the country's G20 Presidency.
The Committee, chaired by Nobel Laureate and renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz, handed over its findings last week.
Ramaphosa said the report examined the causes and consequences of inequality and makes important recommendations.
He explained that among the committee's recommendations is the establishment of a permanent international body on inequality.
"This would be modelled along the lines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been vital to global efforts to measure and respond to the climate emergency.
"In a similar way, the proposed International Panel on Inequality would bring focus to bear on inequality and measure, monitor and report on global and national trends in inequality among and within countries. It would be mandated to advise governments, multilateral bodies and institutions and the G20 on effective policy responses," he said.
The report suggests policy levers that governments around the world can use to reduce inequality.
"It is noteworthy that South Africa already has a number of these policies in place. These include progressive taxation, minimum wage legislation, public expenditure on free or subsidised healthcare, zero-rating essential foodstuffs and strong social protection systems," he said.
Another important part of the country's response to inequality is to promote debt sustainability, especially for developing economies, Ramaphosa highlighted.
The interest on sovereign debt repayments, particularly in Africa, is stifling public spending and economic growth. It is widening the gap between countries and within countries, he added.
Ramaphosa said this is one of the reason South Africa is using its G20 Presidency to advocate for the reform of the global financial architecture.

Zuma's daughter pleads not guilty over deadly South African riots as trial begins
Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, a daughter of former South African President Jacob Zuma, pleaded not guilty on Monday to charges of inciting violence during riots in 2021 in which more than 300 people were killed.
The unrest broke out in July 2021 after Jacob Zuma was arrested for disobeying a court order to testify at a corruption inquiry, and it morphed into widespread looting. The financial damage from the riots was estimated at R50-billion.
Zuma-Sambudla appeared at the high court in Durban for the first day of her trial over the unrest. Prosecutors allege she incited others to commit acts of violence through posts on social media.
Jacob Zuma, who was president from 2009 to 2018 and who still has a loyal following in South Africa, was in court to support his daughter and sat alongside members of his political party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK).
MK was a major disruptor in last year's national election, contributing to a sharp drop in support for the African National Congress, which Zuma used to lead.

Environment Minister Dion George set to lose his post
Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Dion George looks likely to lose his post after his party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), proposed that he be replaced by its spokesperson, Willie Aucamp.
George was asked to become deputy trade minister, "but he didn't see that as an option for himself" and lawmaker Alexandra Abrahams had been recommended for that position, DA leader John Steenhuisen said in an interview on Monday, adding that a final decision will rest with President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The DA joined a 10-member coalition government led by the African National Congress after last year's elections failed to produce an outright winner and was allocated six cabinet posts. The DA's federal executive committee had decided on the new appointees to the government, Steenhuisen said.
Ramaphosa fired the DA's Andrew Whitfield as deputy trade minister in June for travelling abroad without permission, and his post has stood vacant since then.

Oppenheimer family scion urges South Africa to cut red tape
Jonathan Oppenheimer, scion of the family that built Anglo American and De Beers into global mining powerhouses, urged the South African government to "get out of the way" of entrepreneurs.
While small and medium-sized companies make up 91% of formal businesses in South Africa and account for more than a third of gross domestic product, weak economic growth and high running and compliance costs threaten their survival. More than half the country's small businesses risk shutting down within a year under current cost-inflation conditions without outside help, an index compiled by Absa Group and the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry shows.
"The most powerful thing the government could do is get out of the way, particularly in the entrepreneurial space," Oppenheimer, the executive chairman of investment and philanthropic group Oppenheimer Generations, said in an interview in Johannesburg Wednesday. "I'm not advocating a completely anarchic libertarian approach by any measure, I truly don't believe that. But, the government needs to be very deliberate in understanding that time, particularly for small business, is incredibly precious."
His comments echo those made by the World Bank. The Washington-based lender has urged South African policymakers to cut excessive red tape, which it said weighs heaviest on smaller companies that lack the resources to navigate them and are contributing to the economy's "signs of paralysis." GDP has expanded by an average of less than 1% annually over the past decade.
The Oppenheimer family donated R1-billion in 2020 to set up the South African Future Trust, which supported small businesses during the coronavirus pandemic. The public-benefit organisation extended those funds as concessionary loans to about 10,000 companies in 34 working days, Oppenheimer said. The trust plans to use all recovered funds to further stimulate small businesses, including through training programs, he added.
Nicky Oppenheimer, Jonathan's father, has a net worth of $13.5-billion, mainly from the 2012 sale of his family's stake in De Beers for $5.2-billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

SIU launches GBVF programme to act 'swiftly'
Special Investigating Unit (SIU) head Advocate Andy Mothibi said on Friday that corruption and gender-based violence and femicide (GBVF) are inter-connected, as he announced the launch of the unit's GBVF first responder programme.
Speaking during the National Dialogue on GBVF, in Pretoria, he stated that GBVF was not only a crime but a betrayal of the promise of the country's democracy.
"…the promise that every person, regardless of gender, or circumstance, deserves to live free from fear and free in dignity," he added.
Mothibi said through the SIU Anti-Corruption and Cyber Academy, the programme marks a "decisive shift" from reaction to readiness.
It will train and accredit GBVF first responders across communities, workplaces and institutions to act within the first 24 hours of a crisis.
"When a survivor calls for help, when a child trembles, when silence hangs heavy, South Africa must be ready to respond with competence, compassion, and care," he said.
Mothibi called for the capacitation and strengthening of teachers, nurses, HR officers, social workers, NGOs', traditional leaders, police officers and prosecutors, all of whom meet with survivors in their most vulnerable states.
He stated that the work of the SIU was anchored in "justice, accountability, and integrity".
"Yet our mission extends beyond investigation, it is about ethical leadership and the protection of the vulnerable," he said.
He expressed concern that corruption poached resources meant for survivor care, shelters and justice support, adding that it undermined service delivery and created violent and exploitative environments.
"When corruption takes root, it is women, children, and members of the LGBTQ+ community who suffer the most, often unseen, unheard, and unprotected," he stated.

Mchunu maintains innocence, as he hands over electronic devices to Saps
Suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu says he remains confident that due process will confirm that his actions have been "ethical, lawful, and consistent" with his duties as a member of the Executive.
On Thursday, Mchunu voluntarily handed over his electronic devices to South African Police Service (Saps) investigators as part of the ongoing investigation.
In July, President Cyril Ramaphosa placed Mchunu on a leave of absence with immediate effect.
This after KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi made allegations of corruption, political interference, and malfeasance, specifically accusing Mchunu of unilaterally disbanding the Political Killings Task Team and redirecting 121 active investigation dockets to the office of National Deputy Commissioner Lieutenant General Shadrack Sibiya, where they have allegedly been neutralised.
Mchunu reiterated his full cooperation with all processes and reaffirmed his commitment to "transparency, accountability, and respect" for the rule of law.
He maintained that he had "nothing to hide" and that he welcomed any lawful investigation.
Mchunu said his focus was on serving South Africans and safeguarding the integrity of the country's democratic institutions.
Last month, during his appearance at the Commission investigating allegations made by Mkhwanazi, Mchunu defended his decision to disband the Political Killings Task Team in KwaZulu-Natal, informing the committee that he had the approval of Ramaphosa to proceed with the decision.
Mchunu stated that he had briefed Ramaphosa on his intention to dissolve the task team and that the President had supported his reasoning.