Your host Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Michael Gentile to the show. Michael Gentile is Strategic Investor & Co-Founder of Bastion Asset Management. With a background in finance and commodities, Gentile has developed a unique investment approach in the junior mining sector, combining value investing principles with a contrarian perspective. Gentile's investment strategy is rooted in identifying inefficient market opportunities, particularly in junior resource stocks. He focuses on companies with potential to become mines, looking for key attributes such as grade, scale, infrastructure, and management ownership. His approach involves making initial small investments (around 1% of capital) in companies with promising geological prospects, with the potential to increase stakes as companies demonstrate successful execution.
Michael sees the current commodity cycle, particularly in gold, as being in its early stages. He believes we are entering a period of monetary devaluation, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic environment. Gentile argues that the unprecedented levels of government debt and the challenges of managing interest rates create a favorable backdrop for gold and other hard assets. His due diligence process is comprehensive, examining factors like drilling efficiency, management ownership, and jurisdictional risks.
Unlike many investors, Michael prefers 100% ownership of projects and is cautious about joint ventures or royalty companies. Gentile looks for companies with the potential to become significant producers, focusing on the valuation and future potential of investments. Gentile's investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking, often holding investments for 3-10 years and looking for opportunities where he can potentially make 20-50 times his initial investment. He is currently most bullish on gold, with secondary interest in copper and a watchful eye on oil. As part of his commitment to sharing knowledge, Gentile is planning a European road show in October, bringing six of his key mining investments to meet potential investors across five cities, offering insights into his investment approach and the junior mining sector.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:05 - Entry into Commodities00:03:40 - Competitive Advantage00:06:11 - Making Long-Term Bets00:11:15 - Commodity Cycles Lessons00:18:12 - Current Cycle Stage00:21:02 - Historical Parallels00:30:00 - Current Positioning00:32:30 - Personal Portfolio Allocation00:36:40 - Due Diligence Process00:44:38 - Business Models Variety00:48:50 - Jurisdiction Risk Concerns00:52:00 - Valuation Assessment00:55:26 - Warrants Strategy00:58:55 - Europe Roadshow & Wrap Up
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552Website: https://www.bastion-am.com/Mining & Metals European Roadshow: https://www.amvestcapital.com/gentile-euro-roadshow-2025
Michael Gentile, CFA is Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Bastion Asset Management. Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods ...

Your host Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeff Phillips to the show. Jeff Phillips is Private Investor and President of Global Market Development. Phillips discusses his extensive experience in the natural resource market, having witnessed three bull markets over his 30-year career. He believes the current market may be entering a significant commodity super cycle driven by multiple factors, including currency devaluation, under-investment in resource exploration, and geopolitical shifts toward securing strategic mineral supplies.



Phillips emphasizes two critical criteria when investing in junior mining companies: structure and people. He looks for companies where management owns a significant portion of shares and has a proven track record of success. The ideal investment, in his view, involves well-structured companies with experienced leadership who have previously built or sold successful ventures. His investment strategy focuses on commodities like gold, silver, copper, uranium, and rare earth elements. Phillips is particularly interested in jurisdictions like North America and parts of South America, avoiding regions with high political risk. He sees emerging trends of tech companies and governments increasingly investing in mineral supply chains, which he believes will drive the resource super cycle.



Jeff cautions that the junior mining sector is extremely high-risk and not suitable for most investors. He recommends a disciplined approach, including maintaining a focused portfolio of 8-14 carefully selected positions and seeking advice from experienced professionals. His investment philosophy centers on finding companies with potential to develop tier-one assets and create meaningful value. The interview highlights Phillips' belief that successful speculation in the junior mining space requires understanding company structure, management quality, and geological potential.



He advises investors to conduct thorough research, seek expert guidance, and remember the industry adage: "The best way to make a small fortune in the junior mining sector is to start with a large fortune."



Timestamp References:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Thesis of the resource super cycle00:04:10 - Drivers of the super cycle00:05:29 - Role of under-investment00:10:00 - Jeff’s background and current focus00:14:22 - Evaluating management expertise00:18:10 - Skin in the game and share types00:21:54 - Preferred business models00:28:05 - Geological criteria for projects00:29:50 - Luck vs. positioning00:32:03 - Commodities of interest00:36:40 - Jurisdictional preferences00:38:49 - Valuing junior explorers00:41:32 - Jeff’s role and value-add00:44:44 - Wrap Up

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Willem Middelkoop to the show. Willem Middelkoop is Author and Founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. In this wide-ranging interview, Middelkoop discusses the evolving global financial landscape, emphasizing that the world is entering the "endgame" of the US dollar-centered monetary system that has dominated since World War II. Middelkoop argues that the Ukraine conflict and ongoing geopolitical tensions represent a broader struggle between the West and emerging powers like China and the BRICS nations. He believes the weaponization of the dollar has accelerated the shift away from US financial hegemony, with gold emerging as a strategic asset for alternative economic powers.

Discussing market dynamics, Middelkoop suggests we are approaching a significant market top, potentially with a correction of 70-80% over the next decade. He recommends a diversified investment approach, suggesting investors allocate assets across physical gold, real estate, equities, and digital assets like Bitcoin. His Commodity Discovery Fund has survived and learned through challenging market conditions since 2008, positioning itself for what he sees as an emerging commodity boom.

Willem is particularly bullish on precious metals, especially silver, which he considers undervalued and potentially reaching $100 per ounce within five to ten years. He attributes this potential to fundamental supply constraints and increasing industrial demand. The ongoing debasement of currencies through continuous money printing provides further support for hard assets. Critically, Middelkoop warns that the real economic, sovereign, and currency crises are yet to unfold. He anticipates central banks will continue printing money to prevent social and political instability, which will further drive inflation and asset values. His perspective emphasizes the importance of understanding systemic changes and preparing accordingly, noting that financial stability can rapidly transform into chaos.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:47 - Peace Deals & Ukraine
00:05:02 - Tariff Policy & Conflicts
00:09:20 - Mining & Manufacturing
00:15:02 - Momentum in TSX.V
00:18:43 - 2008 Commodity Bargains
00:24:24 - Inv. Relationships & Value
00:30:24 - Capital Controls & Digital
00:34:30 - Downturn Risk Scenarios
00:38:35 - Powell, Rates, Blow-Off Top?
00:40:42 - Western Instability & Inflation
00:46:36 - Commodities & Positioning
00:48:52 - Diversifying Against Risk
00:49:37 - Balancing a Portfolio
00:55:52 - Thoughts on $100 Silver
01:01:08 - Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Commodity Discover Fund: https://www.cdfund.com
X: https://x.com/@wmiddelkoop
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=84858815

Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ.

Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis's onset in his book "Als de dollar valt" (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were "De permanente oliecrisis" (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, "Overleef de kredietcrisis" (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, "Goud en het geheim van geld" (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset - 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books.

The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Michael discusses his technical analysis of current market conditions, focusing on potential significant shifts in various financial markets. Oliver argues that the US stock market is approaching a major top, characterized by a "broadening top" pattern that suggests an impending decline. He believes the market's upside is not to be trusted, with technical momentum indicators showing weakness in major indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ. The current market represents a bubble, particularly in US markets, with an unprecedented 15-year bull run and a 19-20 fold increase in the NASDAQ 100.

A key concern is the potential for market disruption in unexpected areas, such as banking, credit cards, and Bitcoin. Oliver suggests Bitcoin may be particularly vulnerable, with technical indicators showing similarities to previous market tops. He anticipates a potential implosion that could create significant financial shock waves. Regarding precious metals, Oliver is bullish on gold and especially silver. He predicts silver could reach $60-$70 by year-end, potentially outperforming gold dramatically. He sees this as part of a broader shift away from traditional financial systems, potentially leading to a new monetary reality.

Oliver expects a prolonged bear market rather than a sudden crash, drawing parallels to historical market corrections. He anticipates widespread economic consequences, including potential changes to major institutions like the Federal Reserve. The dollar index is expected to continue declining, potentially dropping to 70 or lower. Commodities are another area of interest, with Oliver suggesting they're poised for a significant upward move. He believes the combination of these factors could create rapid, dramatic changes across financial markets, catching many investors off guard. The overarching theme is one of potential systemic transformation, where incremental changes suddenly erupt into major shifts, challenging existing economic assumptions and potentially reshaping financial landscapes in unexpected ways.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:43 - Fall Technicals & Outlook
00:04:33 - Long Grinding Bear Mkt?
00:10:17 - Market Euphoria Waning?
00:13:08 - Bitcoin Charts & Technicals
00:18:10 - Bitcoin Market Forecast
00:20:25 - Increasing Market Risk?
00:22:42 - Dollar/Gold Weaponization
00:25:07 - The Powell Surrender
00:27:28 - Gold During Flash Crashes
00:29:50 - Commodities/Consequences
00:36:28 - Bear Case for T-Bills
00:39:37 - Rate Cuts & Mkt. FOMO
00:44:37 - Thoughts on Silver
00:47:27 - Silver Technicals & Rally
00:54:35 - Argentina Javier Milei
00:56:04 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com

Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in pric...

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Kao to the show. Michael Kao is Private Family Office Investor & Author and a Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader. In this comprehensive discussion, Kao provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump 2.0 economic strategy, focusing on several key policy initiatives designed to reshape the United States' economic trajectory. He describes the current approach as navigating an "asteroid field" with strategic policy levers aimed at addressing significant economic challenges, including massive deficits, global conflicts, and critical dependencies on adversarial nations.

Kao highlights four primary policy initiatives: tariffs and economic statecraft, redirecting fiscal spending, managing inflation, and containing internal and external threats. A critical component of this strategy involves what he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," where other countries and private industries shoulder fiscal responsibilities traditionally borne by the US government. This approach could potentially redirect billions of dollars in spending through trade deals, NATO commitments, and corporate reshoring initiatives. The discussion extensively explores potential deflationary mechanisms within the policy framework, including strategic tariffs, oil price management, and potential productivity gains from AI and deregulation. Kao suggests that these policies could create a "disinflationary growth" scenario, potentially allowing the US to grow its way out of its current debt challenges.

Kao remains cautiously optimistic about the United States' economic future, emphasizing the importance of maintaining these strategic initiatives beyond the current presidential cycle. He believes the US has significant untapped potential on its balance sheet and that the current approach could create more favorable long-term economic conditions.

The conversation also touches on geopolitical dynamics, including potential shifts in Middle Eastern relationships, China's economic challenges, and the importance of creating sustainable economic conditions that don't rely on short-term monetary manipulations.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:58 - Trump Economic Shifts
00:12:02 - Chinese Industry/Automation
00:16:47 - U.S. Debt Bubble & GDP
00:22:24 - Bessent & Treasury Yields
00:32:00 - CBO Metrics, & Cuts
00:38:30 - Stablecoins & SWIFT
00:42:10 - Middle East Risks
00:46:46 - Markets & Conflicts
00:51:10 - Trump a High-Vol Playbook
00:57:00 - Energy, Oil, & China
01:03:16 - U.S. Market Chart & Risks
01:10:15 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/@UrbanKaoboy
Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about

Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.

Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Matthew Piepenburg to the show. Matthew Piepenburg is Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, and Author of 'Gold Matters & Rigged To Fail'. In this wide-ranging discussion, Piepenburg explores several critical economic topics, including potential gold revaluation, stablecoins, and the current state of the global financial system. He argues that the United States is facing unprecedented economic challenges, characterized by massive debt levels, currency debasement, and growing global economic tensions.

Regarding gold revaluation, Piepenburg suggests that while some propose dramatic scenarios like gold reaching $24,000 per ounce, the reality is more nuanced. He emphasizes that such a revaluation would be a desperate measure to address mounting debt, potentially destabilizing global currencies. The discussion highlights the complexity of such a strategy, noting that it might provide temporary relief but would not solve underlying structural economic problems. Piepenburg is particularly critical of current economic indicators, pointing out the widening wealth inequality, the struggling middle class, and the market's disconnection from economic fundamentals. He views the current stock market as a bubble sustained by liquidity and debt, warning of potential significant mean reversion.

The conversation also explores alternative assets like silver and platinum, with Piepenburg viewing them as potential stores of value and speculative opportunities. He argues that gold's rising price is not a bull market, but rather a signpost of a broader currency and debt crisis. Ultimately, Piepenburg's message is one of cautious preparation rather than panic. He encourages listeners to be informed, challenge assumptions, and understand that while the current economic system faces significant challenges, it is not necessarily heading for immediate collapse. The key is to remain objective, understand the underlying trends, and make informed decisions about wealth preservation. The discussion concludes with a call for critical thinking and avoiding emotional or sensationalist approaches to understanding complex economic dynamics.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:66 - Gold Revaluation Coming?
00:14:47 - U.S. Debt & Stablecoins
00:21:21 - Stablecoins & SWIFT
00:23:56 - Trump's Tariff Approach
00:35:47 - Can The System Be Saved?
00:47:12 - Debt Symptoms & Outcomes
00:55:27 - Silvers Role & Importance
01:01:43 - How High Could Gold Go?
01:09:26 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c

Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Florian Grummes to the show. Florian Grummes is Financial Analyst, Advisor, and Founder & Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. The discussion centers on the current state of gold and silver markets, highlighting a period of consolidation following a strong rally. Grummes explains that gold has been trading in a range between $3,200 and $3,400, which he considers a healthy and bullish consolidation after a significant price increase from $2,000 to $3,500 over the past 14 months. He anticipates more market movement in September and October as traders return from summer holidays.

Central bank buying remains a crucial driver for gold prices, with emerging markets like China and India continuing to diversify away from the US dollar. Grummes believes this trend could continue for five to ten years, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a strategic shift in global financial dynamics. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has become increasingly prominent, potentially challenging Western pricing mechanisms for precious metals.

Regarding silver, Grummes notes a more measured approach to price movement, which he views positively. He suggests the market is building momentum more sustainably, increasing the likelihood of breaking through the $50 resistance level and potentially continuing higher to $55-$75. The discussion also touches on mining stocks, which Grummes sees as undervalued and potentially poised for significant growth. He references the Dow-to-Gold ratio as an important long-term indicator, suggesting that precious metals are likely to outperform traditional stocks in the coming years.

Looking ahead, Grummes provides price targets for the end of 2024: approximately $4,000 for gold, $50 for silver, and potentially $150,000 for Bitcoin. He expects a strong final quarter across markets, with potential rate cuts and continued liquidity in the financial system.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Gold & Seasonality
00:03:00 - Volatility this Fall?
00:06:28 - Eastern Buying Season?
00:09:40 - Central Bank Buying
00:13:24 - Western Pricing Power
00:16:32 - Silver and Stable Pricing
00:20:23 - Gold Support & Resistance
00:24:14 - Silver Previous ATHs
00:27:28 - Topping Technical Signals
00:31:23 - Website T.A. Buy Gauge
00:32:53 - Miners & Maturing Markets
00:35:30 - ReMonetizing Gold & Fed
00:40:58 - Dow To Gold Ratio
00:46:30 - Bitcoin & Stablecoins
00:49:20 - Price Targets End 2025
00:50:55 - Fall Rate Cuts or Q.E.
00:52:12 - Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.midastouch-consulting.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/
X: https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummes
Substack: https://substack.com/@midastouchconsulting
Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummes
Telegram: https://t.me/MidasTouchConsulting
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Midastouchconsulting
Free Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/d5Euf

Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets. 
 
Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting,...

Tom welcomes back investment manager Lawrence Lepard for a discussion on the current economic landscape, focusing on potential signs of a "crack-up boom" and the challenges facing the US monetary system. Lepard suggests we may be entering a period of significant economic transformation, characterized by record highs in stock markets, gold, and Bitcoin, while expressing skepticism about the stability of current financial structures. The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy shifts, with Lepard believing that a new dovish Fed chairman could lead to increased money printing and inflationary pressures. He anticipates a decade of high inflation and potentially significant economic restructuring.



Larry is particularly bullish on gold, silver, and Bitcoin as hedge assets, predicting gold could reach $5,000 and Bitcoin could hit hundreds of thousands of dollars. He draws parallels between the current AI investment landscape and the dot-com bubble, warning that overinvestment in AI could potentially trigger a significant economic downturn. He also discusses the possibility of a gold revaluation, suggesting that the government might eventually reset gold's value as a way to address mounting national debt.



Regarding gold and silver mining stocks, Larry sees tremendous potential for growth. He highlights that these stocks have significantly underperformed the metal prices and believes they could potentially double in the next 12-18 months as investors recognize the long-term upward trajectory of precious metals.



This interview concludes with Lepard promoting his book, "The Big Print," which explores the current monetary system's challenges and offers strategies for protecting wealth during potential economic instability. His core message emphasizes the need to return to a sound money standard and prepare for potential inflationary pressures.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - Crack Up Doom Phase
00:02:56 - Trump Rates & Powell
00:10:20 - Mortgages & Housing
00:11:59 - Gold, Bitcoin, & Bonds
00:16:58 - U.S. Economic Dominance?
00:21:53 - Stablecoins & Treasuries
00:26:54 - Japanese Debt & Carry Trade
00:29:50 - A.I. The New .com Bubble?
00:32:00 - Fed & Revaluing Gold?
00:38:23 - Gold ETF Inflows/Demand
00:39:35 - Silver Price Levels
00:43:13 - HUI Chart Vs. Gold
00:47:08 - What Could Go Wrong?
00:49:28 - Larry's Book - The Big Print



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/llepard



Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.




Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.



Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

Tom welcomes global economic consultant Simon Hunt back to the show. Simon provides a comprehensive analysis of current geopolitical and economic tensions, focusing on potential conflicts and economic challenges facing the world. The discussion centers on the upcoming Putin-Trump summit, which Hunt believes will likely produce no substantial outcomes, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict expected to continue and be ultimately decided on the battlefield. Hunt suggests significant geopolitical risks exist, particularly in the Middle East, with potential escalations involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.



Simon emphasizes that Washington's broader strategic objective is to prevent the BRICS nations from maturing into a genuine opposition to the current unilateral world order. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in September could be a pivotal moment in reshaping global dynamics. Economically, Hunt warns of potential recessionary pressures, with particular concerns about Europe's financial stability. He notes that China's economy is experiencing weakening demand, with manufacturing sectors showing signs of strain.



The implementation of tariffs and trade uncertainties are creating significant business hesitation and potential long-term economic disruptions. Regarding inflation, Hunt predicts a potential inflationary surge by mid-2025, potentially reaching double-digit levels by 2027-2028. He highlights food prices as a critical indicator, with the FAO food price index showing concerning upward trends. The potential for war and continued monetary stimulus could exacerbate these inflationary pressures.



In the commodities sector, particularly copper, Hunt anticipates a market correction with prices potentially falling to around $7,000 before potentially doubling by 2027-2028. He suggests that war could paradoxically become a driver of copper consumption.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:00 - Trump/Putin Outcomes
00:08:47 - Europe & Putin's Interests
00:12:43 - Conflict Could Escalate
00:13:50 - Middle East Tensions
00:21:20 - China, Trade, & Taiwan
00:23:05 - War, Recession, or Both?
00:25:53 - Econ. Outlook For China
00:31:04 - Black Swans Or Grey Rhinos
00:33:06 - Recession & Moar Stimulus
00:36:20 - Inflation - Cause & Effect
00:40:48 - Tariffs & Chaotic Prices
00:42:08 - Copper, Equities, Liquidation
00:45:55 - Copper Price Spikes
00:47:19 - Trade Avoiding The U.S.
00:50:26 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:
E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/



Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.



In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.



He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses.

Tom welcomes back Patrick Karim for a discussion around the potential for a significant capital rotation event in financial markets, focusing on the relationship between gold, stocks, and other assets. Karim emphasizes the importance of using logarithmic charts for accurate long-term financial analysis, explaining that linear charts can distort historical price movements and hide critical trends. The core of Karim's analysis centers on the potential shift of capital from stocks to commodities, particularly gold and silver. He highlights several key indicators suggesting this rotation may be imminent, including the stretched valuation of the stock market relative to currency circulation and the increasing distance from long-term moving averages.



Karim points out that gold has been showing signs of breaking out against the S&P 500, which historically precedes periods of economic restructuring. He notes that when such capital rotation events occur, commodities like gold, silver, and uranium tend to outperform stocks for extended periods, potentially spanning 8-12 years. The analysis extends to silver, which Karim sees as particularly promising. He suggests silver could potentially achieve a significant yearly breakout, with potential targets ranging from $65 to $128 over time.



For mining stocks, he recommends focusing on individual leaders rather than broad ETFs, as some miners are already stretched and approaching correction territories. The bond market also provides critical signals, with the relationship between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields indicating potential economic stress. The narrowing spread and downward trend of these yields suggest increasing recessionary pressures. Ultimately, Karim's perspective is not about predicting an immediate market collapse, but rather identifying a potential structural shift in asset performance. He advises investors to watch for confirmation signals, such as gold breaking out against the S&P 500 and stocks experiencing a meaningful correction, before making significant portfolio adjustments.



Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:13 - Capital Rotation Events
00:09:40 - Stocks in Bubble Territory
00:12:32 - Total U.S. Public Debt
00:17:50 - Charts Log. Vs. Linear
00:25:17 - Low Risk Entries For Gold?
00:37:20 - Silver Next For Capital?
00:42:07 - Miners Vs. Silver & Entries?
00:50:49 - Bond Market Signalling
00:54:43 - Ratio Charts To Watch
00:56:28 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/badcharts1
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts



Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.



His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.

Tom welcomes back Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. McGlone offers a nuanced perspective on current economic trends, focusing on potential deflationary forces and market corrections. He argues that commodities are experiencing a significant downturn, with crude oil down 9% and grains down 16% for the year, primarily due to their previous inflationary peaks in 2022.



McGlone anticipates a potential market correction, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which he believes is overvalued and approaching a critical point of reversion. He highlights historical parallels with market peaks in 1929 and 1989, suggesting that the current market conditions share similar characteristics of excessive valuation and speculative sentiment. Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are Mike's preferred assets for the remainder of the year. He notes that gold ETF holdings are up 10% this year, after four consecutive years of decline, and predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce. Central bank buying and a potential stock market pullback could further drive gold's performance.



They also explore the potential impacts of tariffs, particularly on industrial metals like copper, and the changing dynamics of global trade. Mike argues that the U.S. is reshaping international trade relationships, which could pressure corporate profits and contribute to market volatility.



Regarding cryptocurrencies, McGlone is cautious, viewing them as highly correlated with the stock market and potentially vulnerable to a correction. He suggests that the proliferation of stablecoins represents a more practical application of blockchain technology for financial transactions.



His overall thesis centers on the cyclical nature of markets, emphasizing that periods of inflation are typically followed by deflationary corrections. He warns investors to be wary of consensus thinking and to pay attention to historical patterns and market signals that suggest a potential downturn.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:03 - Commodities & 'flation Cycles
00:05:40 - Deflation Expectations
00:11:15 - Gold, T-Bills, & Risk Assets
00:15:26 - Equity Correction & Tariffs
00:21:09 - Volatility & Base Metals
00:24:02 - Gold & ETF Prices
00:28:40 - Reactionary Fed
00:32:40 - Dollar & Accomodative Fed
00:36:53 - Stablecoin Demand
00:40:59 - Investor Psychology
00:44:00 - Contrarian Approach
00:46:02 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/mikemcglone11
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/



Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.




Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.

Tom welcomes a new guest Melody Wright to the show. Melody is an expert on the complex dynamics of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. Her background in macro economics and mortgage lending provides her with a unique perspective on the housing market's evolution and potential risks.



She argues that the housing market has fundamentally transformed since the late 1980s, shifting from a focus on first-time homebuyers to an investment-driven ecosystem. The average household size has dramatically decreased to 2.5 people, reflecting significant demographic changes. She highlights how the market has become increasingly dominated by investors, short-term rentals, and speculation, rather than serving traditional family housing needs.



A critical concern is the rise of non-bank lenders, which now comprise 85% of mortgage lending. These institutions lack the financial cushioning of traditional banks and are potentially vulnerable to economic shifts. Wright warns that the current housing market is facing multiple challenges, including overbuilding, misallocated inventory, and declining affordability for younger generations. Demographics present another significant challenge. The United States is not maintaining population replacement rates, with an aging population of baby boomers who own the majority of homes.



Melody predicts a potential significant market correction, potentially as dramatic as the 2008 financial crisis, where home prices could realign more closely with median household incomes. The discussion emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, pointing out systematic issues like securitization, government intervention, and misleading data reporting. She advises consumers to be cautious about taking on debt and to conduct thorough personal research before making significant housing decisions.



Ultimately, Wright suggests the housing market may be heading toward a period of correction, where prices could dramatically realign with economic fundamentals. She recommends skepticism toward mainstream narratives and encourages individuals to carefully evaluate their personal financial circumstances before committing to major housing investments.



Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:48 - Melody's Background 00:07:33 - Real Estate Overbuilding 00:11:25 - How Housing Has Changed 00:17:28 - Lower Rates & Inventory 00:19:19 - Age & First Time Buyers 00:21:18 - Non-Bank Mortgages? 00:27:24 - U.S. Economic Outlook? 00:34:25 - Fed Data & Anomalies 00:38:48 - Other Warning Signs 00:41:40 - U.S. Demographics 00:44:02 - Canadian Markets 00:47:08 - Housing Market Forecast 00:51:52 - Short-Term Recovery? 00:54:16 - Gov't Policy Mitigations? 00:57:40 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/M3_Melody
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/m3-melody/



A 24-year BFSI veteran, Melody was recently named as one of Mortgage Women Magazine's Women of Technology and is a contributing writer to multiple publications. Her 2023 article in HousingWire entitled “Debunking the Housing Inventory Myth,” created controversy and sparked debate in the industry and amongst the investor community as housing analysts attributed low sales to inventory issues. Wright presciently argued that the depressed housing market was due to affordability issues and changing trends in how people buy and sell homes.

Tom welcomes back Gary Savage from Smart Money Track to discuss current market dynamics. Gary suggests that the stock market is potentially forming a "megaphone topping pattern" and may be approaching a cyclical bear market, with potential geopolitical tensions in Ukraine serving as a potential catalyst for market corrections.



Regarding gold, Savage emphasizes a long-term bullish perspective, highlighting a 13-year cup and handle pattern that suggests significant upside potential. He believes gold could easily reach $10,000 and potentially even $15,000 during its final parabolic phase. The extended base formation supports his optimistic outlook. For silver, Savage sees similar potential, predicting prices could reach $100, $200, and potentially $250. He recommends selling in stages during the final bubble phase, with the gold-to-silver ratio (potentially reaching 20-30 to 1) serving as a key indicator for market tops.



The discussion also explores the dollar's role, with Savage believing the currency is in a secular bear market and currently experiencing a countertrend rally. He expects the dollar will make a lower high and then decline, which could support precious metals' performance. Savage warns that potential market movements could be significantly influenced by geopolitical events, particularly escalating tensions in Ukraine. He suggests the "war cycle" might last until 2027-2028 and could be a driving factor in gold's bull market.



His investment strategy focuses on patience, avoiding over-trading, and strategically positioning for metals' anticipated bull run. He recommends using vehicles like leveraged ETFs and long-dated call options when identifying potential intermediate cycle lows.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - Fall Market Outlook
00:03:16 - Technical Structures & Charts
00:07:40 - Fed Effectiveness
00:09:57 - Geopolitical Risks & Ukraine
00:12:25 - Melt-Up Potential?
00:13:58 - Fed & Bond Markets
00:15:15 - Gold Outlook & Chart
00:19:42 - Parabolic Phase Coming?
00:22:40 - Taking Profits?
00:25:18 - Ratio Charts & GSR
00:26:22 - Silver Short Positions?
00:30:00 - Dollar Strength & Metals
00:33:52 - Gold Miners & Cycle
00:36:37 - Leverage & Metals
00:38:12 - Trade Frequency?
00:40:04 - Focus on the Metals
00:41:30 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
X: https:/x.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/



Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).



Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold,

Tom welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, portfolio manager for Carrasco Wealth Management. Jaime provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic landscape, focusing primarily on silver and gold as critical investment assets during a potential monetary reset. Carrasco argues that silver is significantly undervalued, highlighting the historical gold-to-silver ratio and the massive structural deficit in silver production. He believes silver presents an extraordinary investment opportunity, especially given its current price is essentially unchanged from 40 years ago, while other commodities have dramatically increased in value.



The discussion centers on the potential for a major monetary reset, similar to historical precedents like Roosevelt's 1933 dollar revaluation. Carrasco suggests that central banks and governments are preparing to revalue asset ledgers, potentially backing currencies with gold again. He points to signals like rising long-term interest rates and global central banks' increasing gold purchases as indicators of this impending shift.



Jaime is particularly critical of the current financial system, emphasizing the unsustainable debt levels and the continuous cycle of solving debt problems by creating more debt. He anticipates a period of stagflation leading potentially to hyperinflation, where people will rapidly exchange currency for hard assets. While acknowledging the potential of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, Carrasco maintains that gold and silver remain the most reliable forms of money.



Carrasco advises investors to focus on opportunities rather than crisis, emphasizing the potential for generational wealth creation through strategic investments in gold, silver, and mining sector equities. Ultimately, his message is clear: those who understand and position themselves ahead of these potential monetary transformations will be best prepared to preserve and grow their wealth.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:42 - The Silver Disconnect
00:07:16 - Gold To Silver Ratio
00:11:15 - Depression Era & Dollar
00:14:38 - Miners & Raising Capital
00:20:25 - Bessent & Shelton's Plan
00:23:51 - Japan Selling Treasuries
00:28:40 - Illusion of Fed Control?
00:32:50 - Canada's Gold Reserves!
00:36:30 - Fiscal Stimulus Problems
00:38:38 - Inflation & Hyperinflation
00:40:46 - Crypto & Physical Metals
00:45:34 - News & Focusing Attention
00:48:46 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/ijcarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.com
E-Mail: mailto:jaime@jcwealth.ca



Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.



Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.



Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988.

Tom welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author of the Independent Speculator to discuss critical investment strategies and insights across various economic and commodity markets. Lobo emphasizes the importance of due diligence, skepticism, and rational decision-making in investing, arguing that emotional discipline and thorough research are key to successful investment outcomes.



Tiggre explores several significant economic themes, including Trump's "Fortress America" agenda and its potential implications for commodity markets. He suggests that the current geopolitical strategy is focused on strengthening domestic manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains, which could have substantial investment opportunities in sectors like copper, uranium, and strategic metals.



Regarding economic predictions, Tiggre maintains a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the complexity of current economic conditions. He discusses the potential for recession while highlighting the role of fiscal dominance and massive government spending in potentially preventing or mitigating economic downturns. He argues that the interplay between inflationary and deflationary pressures could create a stagflationary environment beneficial to certain commodity sectors.



When discussing investment strategies, Tiggre strongly advocates for careful stock selection over broad market bets. He warns against simply following trends or relying solely on spreadsheet analysis, emphasizing that investors must conduct thorough research and understand the specific dynamics of individual companies and sectors.



For investors new to sectors like uranium, he recommends starting with ETFs or carefully selected stocks after comprehensive due diligence. A key takeaway from the discussion is Tiggre's belief that investors can outperform the market by dedicating time to understanding their investments, maintaining a skeptical attitude, and avoiding emotional decision-making. He suggests that even a modest amount of dedicated research—approximately one hour per week per owned stock—can significantly improve investment outcomes.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Do Your Due Diligence
00:04:24 - Eliminating Emotion & Bias
00:08:47 - Following Your Gut
00:14:58 - Timing, Targets, & Risk
00:17:13 - Copper Announcements
00:22:08 - Incentivising Mining?
00:28:10 - Copper & Trump Policies
00:34:05 - Silver & Strategic Metals
00:37:10 - U.S. Recessionary Fears
00:41:37 - Ongoing Monetary Stimulus
00:44:00 - Europe Recession Concerns
00:47:46 - Uranium Market & Exposure
00:54:24 - Commodities, Metals, ETFS
01:00:05 - Do Your Homework



Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/



Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers,

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital to discuss the emerging bullish cycle in the metals and mining sector. Costa believes we are in the early stages of a long-term commodity cycle, with gold leading the way and other metals poised to follow. The discussion centers on three primary pillars: energy sources, infrastructure, and raw materials. Costa argues that the increasing electricity demand, driven by artificial intelligence and onshoring trends, will create significant opportunities in metals and mining. He emphasizes the critical need for metals to support emerging technological and infrastructure developments, particularly in the United States.



A pivotal moment Costa highlights is the U.S. Department of Defense's 15% stake in MP Materials, which he sees as a recognition of strategic material vulnerabilities. This investment signals a potential shift in how governments view critical resources and mining infrastructure. Costa also discusses the potential macroeconomic trajectory, suggesting two potential paths: a deflationary shock or an inflationary era followed by a highly efficient, deflationary period driven by AI. He believes we are currently in an inflationary buildup phase that will eventually transition to increased productivity and efficiency.



Regarding currencies, Costa anticipates a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, driven by significant fiscal and trade deficits. He sees this as part of a broader "domino effect" of macro trends, where acceptance of risk gradually moves through different asset classes and markets. The interview concludes with Costa identifying the exploration and development phase of the mining industry, alongside emerging markets, as potentially the most asymmetric investment opportunities of his career. He encourages investors to pay attention to the interconnected nature of these macro trends and the gradual rotation of capital across different sectors and geographies.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:49 - Gold to Commodity Ratios
00:06:03 - Markets Interconnected
00:12:23 - Com. Correlations & Silver
00:18:26 - Platinum & Lease Rates
00:21:40 - Dept Defense & Miners?
00:27:12 - Commodity Opportunities
00:31:50 - Energy & GDP
00:38:14 - Low Prices & Capital Investment
00:40:25 - Capital Paying Attention
00:45:29 - Debt Risks & Inflation
00:50:09 - Gold Long-Term Outlook
00:54:48 - Dollar Trend Concerns
01:02:04 - U.S. Equity Valuations
01:05:16 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
X: https://x.com/crescat_capital
Website: https://crescat.net



Disclaimer: The opinions and information shared by Tavi in this discussion are his own, and not necessarily those of Crescat. Any investments discussed may or may not be held by Crescat. Investments carry risk including risk of loss.



Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.



His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tom welcomes back the Professor, Vince Lanci to discuss the complex geopolitical and economic landscape. Focusing on the shifting dynamics of global finance, currency, and resource competition. He argues that the United States is facing significant challenges in maintaining its economic dominance, with the dollar likely to weaken due to multiple interconnected factors. Lanci highlights the emerging "Cold War 2.0" between the US and BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, which are strategically repositioning themselves in global markets. He suggests that China is not necessarily seeking to become the global reserve currency, but rather wants to establish a regional economic influence, potentially using the Yuan as a semi-gold-backed currency.



A key theme is the transformation of supply chains and payment mechanisms. Vince explains that eastern countries are increasingly controlling their resource production, pricing, and trading, gradually diminishing Western financial influence. This shift is evident in markets like gold and natural gas, where Russia and China are creating alternative pricing and trading standards.



Their discussion also explores potential solutions for the US economic challenges, such as the rise of stablecoins. Lanci describes stablecoins as a potential mechanism for the US to finance its debt, essentially creating a new way to sell treasuries and attract investment. He sees this as part of a broader strategy to maintain economic flexibility and attract capital.



Regarding monetary policy, Lanci provides insights into Trump's approach to influencing the Federal Reserve, characterizing it as a strategic method of creating political pressure and potential blame scenarios. He believes the dollar will inevitably weaken as a result of mounting debt, changing global dynamics, and the need to make US exports more competitive.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:43 - Dollar Weakening & Signals
00:03:02 - Geo. Conflict & New Cold War
00:06:45 - End Of Globalization
00:10:50 - Oil & Market Signals
00:16:45 - China & U.S. Inflation
00:19:55 - G10 Money Supply Charts
00:22:49 - BRICS & Commodities
00:25:17 - Global Bifurcation
00:30:17 - West's Supply Chain
00:33:25 - Stablecoins & Genius Act
00:41:18 - World Liberty Financial?
00:46:03 - Road To Mercantalism
00:51:40 - Filtering What Matters
00:58:40 - Powell's Successor?
01:02:26 - Entitlements
01:03:53 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
Substack: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/Sorenthek
Zerohedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
X-Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion



Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.



Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure,

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Martin Armstrong who provides a critical geopolitical analysis of current global tensions. The focus begins on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential escalation towards World War III. Armstrong argues that the 50-day deadline imposed by Trump is an unrealistic negotiation tactic that fundamentally misunderstands geopolitical dynamics. Armstrong suggests that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and that NATO's interventionist strategies are deliberately provocative.



He criticizes neoconservative influences, particularly figures like Lindsey Graham and John McCain, for consistently pushing for military confrontation without understanding the long-term consequences. He highlights how these interventions have historically failed, citing examples from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The discussion emphasizes the economic implications of ongoing tensions, with Armstrong predicting a steep recession lasting until 2028.



He argues that sanctions against Russia have accelerated the formation of BRICS and are driving countries to seek alternative economic arrangements. The movement of gold and capital away from traditional Western financial centers is seen as a significant indicator of these shifts. Armstrong is particularly critical of European leadership, describing them as the "worst crop of world leaders" in history. He points out the economic challenges facing Germany and the broader European Union, including capital controls and increasing governmental restrictions on financial movements.



Regarding potential conflict, Armstrong warns that Putin is unlikely to capitulate and that the current strategies risk escalating into a broader global confrontation. He suggests that the financial capital of the world will likely move to China after 2032, drawing parallels with the historical decline of Athens due to internal polarization and continuous warfare. The interview concludes with a stark warning about the potential for significant geopolitical and economic disruption, with Armstrong emphasizing that the current trajectory benefits no one and risks triggering a catastrophic global conflict.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:53 - Trump's Warning to Putin
00:09:42 - Gold Moving Globally
00:11:49 - Underestimating Russia
00:19:13 - Continuous Conflict?
00:26:17 - Turning Point Projected
00:30:53 - Sanctions & 2026 Economy
00:40:03 - Capital Flows & Seizures
00:42:46 - Genius Act & Stablecoins
00:48:42 - Treasury Bond Values
00:52:05 - Inflation Blame & Shame
00:59:20 - Cost Push Inflation
01:03:30 - Fed Powell Pressure
01:07:57 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
Website: https://armstrongeconomics.com
X: https://x.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9



Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.



At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard.

Tom welcomes back the always interesting Peter Grandich to discuss several critical economic and geopolitical issues facing the United States. The conversation centers on potential tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with Grandich suggesting that Trump's attempts to influence monetary policy could have significant market repercussions. Grandich highlights several major concerns, including a looming debt crisis, with national debt potentially reaching $50 trillion and creating unsustainable interest payments. He also emphasizes a brewing retirement crisis, where most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and unable to save adequately for retirement. Additionally, he warns about an aging crisis, infrastructure challenges, and potential societal tensions related to demographic shifts.



The discussion extensively explores the growing influence of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which Grandich sees as a significant geopolitical development. He believes these countries are strategically positioning themselves to challenge US economic dominance, particularly through alternative trading mechanisms and potential new currency arrangements. Regarding investment strategies, Grandich is bullish on precious metals, especially gold, copper, uranium, and silver. He recommends diversification in junior mining stocks while understanding the speculative nature of such investments. His investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking and monitoring global financial trends beyond US-centric perspectives.



Grandich is particularly critical of the current administration's approach to international relations, suggesting that Trump's aggressive trade tactics and diplomatic strategies are accelerating the United States' global decline. He argues that the world is increasingly moving away from US-centric economic models, with countries like China playing increasingly pivotal roles in global economic development. The interview concludes with Grandich recommending that investors broaden their information sources, read international financial media, and prepare for potential significant market shifts by understanding emerging global economic trends.



Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:42 - Trump Vs. Powell
00:05:38 - Big Stick Approach
00:07:44 - PPI Metrics & Tariffs
00:10:06 - Ex-Friends of Trump
00:11:29 - Fed Politicized
00:15:00 - Market Reaction
00:17:48 - Melt-Up Drivers
00:21:26 - Other Looming Crisis
00:28:10 - BRICS & Financial Advisors
00:34:03 - Miners, Silver, Copper, Uranium
00:37:38 - Derivatives Banks & Brokerages
00:39:12 - Miners Portfolio Weighting
00:42:06 - Robert Prechter Story
00:44:02 - 2025 Commodity Trends
00:46:23 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
Website: https://petergrandich.com
X: https://x.com/PeterGrandich



Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.

Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt to discuss the current economic landscape, focusing on the potential collapse of debt markets and the rise of alternative assets like gold, silver, and platinum. He argues that we are witnessing the end of a 40-year bond market cycle, with long-term debt instruments experiencing significant yield increases across multiple countries, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom.



Hunt emphasizes that the traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds are losing their appeal due to capital devaluation and low yields. He suggests that investors are increasingly turning to precious metals as a preservation of capital strategy. Technical analysis of gold, platinum, and silver charts indicates potential breakouts and continued upward momentum, with gold potentially reaching targets around $3,700.



A key discussion point is the unraveling of the Japanese carry trade, where low-cost Japanese funding has been used to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. As Japanese long-term yields rise, this trade becomes less attractive, potentially causing significant financial disruption. Hunt believes this could trigger a broader financial restructuring. The conversation also explores the potential vulnerability of the United States as a global economic hegemon. Hunt argues that the U.S. is not immune to economic challenges and may experience a more dramatic economic downturn due to its higher starting point.



He warns about the potential collapse of pension systems, driven by complex financial instruments like Leveraged Debt Instruments (LDIs) that have created unsustainable financial structures. Ultimately, Hunt predicts a shift towards alternative assets and potentially a universal basic income (UBI) system as traditional financial mechanisms break down. He advises investors to focus on physical precious metals and be cautious of complex financial products and large asset management firms.



Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:49 - Debt Markets & Equities
00:03:52 - Demand Destroying Event
00:07:04 - 10 Year - Bond Yield Chart
00:10:50 - TLT ETF Chart
00:13:12 - Can the Fed Save Markets?
00:17:10 - Yen Carry Trade Unwind
00:24:00 - Dollar Still A Safe Haven?
00:30:15 - Gold Attracting Attention
00:34:10 - Plat & Silver Performance
00:36:40 - Miners & Margin Expansion
00:39:37 - Questioning Yourself
00:48:00 - Pensions & Debt Collapse
00:56:00 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/themarketsniper
X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper



Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?




He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play,