Former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen joins Mark, Cris, and Dante to cover a wide range of topics, including a somber discussion about the recent firing of the current BLS commissioner. Erica provides key insights into the role that BLS commissioners play in the day-to-day publication of economic data, as well as the longer-term challenges facing BLS and other federal statistical agencies. She also weighs in on the recent revisions to employment data that have garnered much attention and provides a thorough explanation of why revisions happen and the tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy.

The Inside Economics team turned lugubrious in this week’s episode. Given this week’s data dump showing that inflation is uncomfortably high and accelerating, and the job market and broader economy are struggling, it's hard not to be. They also consider what it all means for the Fed, which is in an increasingly difficult position, and prospects that the economy will fall off the narrow tight rope it is on, into recession.

The 2025 U.S. economy leaves no shortage of topics to explore. This week, the Inside Economics crew tries to touch them all. Mark and Cris, joined by Matt Colyar, discuss growing challenges to Fed independence, recent tariff agreements, financial market exuberance, and a U.S. housing market under significant stress. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and offers their latest recession probabilities and expectations for next week’s slew of important data.

Automotive economists Jonathan Smoke (Cox Automotive) and Michael Brisson (Moody's Analytics) join Mark and Cris to discuss industry conditions, tariff impacts on production and pricing, and their divergent views on auto credit's future. Inside Economics producer, Sara Rodriguez, makes a special guest appearance to settle the podcast's ongoing chit-chat debate.

Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi and Cris deRitis are joined by Ira Goldstein from The Reinvestment Fund, Maggie McCullough from PolicyMap, and Jim Parrott from the Urban Institute to discuss their new study that takes a deep dive into understanding the nature of the decade-long housing shortfall. This housing crisis has driven up house prices and rents, and undermined housing affordability. But despite the heightened political attention on the problem, there remains confusion over its true scale and scope. This team of self-avowed housers dissect the shortage down to the census tract and come to some surprising conclusions.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee joins Mark and Cris to talk about the economy and monetary policy. He explains that the up and down tariffs and other economic policies have thrown lots of dirt in the air, so to speak, complicating things for the Fed and thus delaying the normalization of interest rates. He also weighs in on the policy response to the financial crisis and the economic repercussions of artificial intelligence. And tune in to hear why he wants to be 80% Paul Volker and 20% Muhammad Ali.

Dante joins the Inside Economics crew for an unusual jobs Thursday podcast. The team discusses the disconnect between the positive headlines and market reaction to the June employment report and the weakening undercurrent in the labor market. They also debate whether higher inflation is still looming despite not showing up in the data yet. Marisa steals the show in the stats game with three figures that stump Mark, Cris, and Dante.

Mark, Marisa, and colleague Adam Kamins are joined by Ivy Zelman to discuss the housing market outlook. Ivy sheds light on a wide variety of topics, including disappointing demand, the persistent drag from mortgage rate lock, and a lack of listings, adding up to a bearish outlook for prices and sales. The group also touches on regional differences, why builders are pulling back, and the effect of policy changes around tariffs and immigration. Along the way, Marisa and Adam learn the answers to a few existential questions, including “Why am I here?”

Colleagues Chris Lafakis and Steve Cochrane join Inside Economics to discuss how geopolitics is shaping the outlook and the risks to the U.S. and global economies. But first, the team reminisces about Steve’s 32 years as “employee 007” at the company and his upcoming retirement. Steve reveals his secrets for “managing up,” and Mark finds out he’s been managed all these years. The conversation then turns to U.S.-China relations and the risk of an oil price shock stemming from Israel’s attack on Iran last week.

Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, joins Mark, Cris, and Marisa to explore the rapid rise of the private credit market. With global assets surpassing $2 trillion, Samim breaks down the systemic risks posed by this opaque yet fast-growing asset class. The discussion delves into private credit’s role in middle-market lending, private equity, and new markets like infrastructure and real estate, as well as its implications for financial stability and regulation.

The specter of stagflation is on the rise. While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn’t too far behind – the team’s recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel’s bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses depends on many factors, the least of which is whether the Fed is willing and able to stick to its inflation mandate.

Sharon Parrott, President of CBPP joins the Inside Economics team to consider the big package of tax and government spending provisions making its way through the legislative process. She explains why she’s not a fan, from its implications for the nation’s already dire fiscal situation to its hit to programs benefitting lower-income Americans, such as Medicaid and food assistance.

Dante joins Mark and Marisa for a rare Cris-free Saturday morning podcast to discuss the May jobs report. Given the report's weakness, the team is equally baffled by the positive news headlines and surging stock market on Friday. The team dissects the large downward revisions to the payroll numbers in recent months and whether this signals a recession ahead. They also debate whether the low unemployment rate is giving a false signal about underlying weakness in the labor market.

The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game.

Cliff Rossi, Professor of the Practice and Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland, joins the podcast to discuss the future of housing finance and the potential release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government conservatorship. The team also delves into Dr. Rossi's proposal for fixing the homeowners insurance market and explores concerns surrounding private credit.

The Inside Economics team is joined by our colleagues Adam Kamins and Justin Begley to play the statistics game for nearly the entire podcast. There are lots of good stats, and it’s a nice respite from all the economic drama for the long Memorial Day weekend.

The Inside Economics team welcomes back Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, for his fourth appearance. The episode begins with an analysis of the latest economic indicators, unpacking fresh CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Mark then asks the team to weigh in on how recent tariff announcements have altered their economic forecasts and recession probabilities. Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley provides a breakdown of the budget reconciliation package moving through Congress. The episode concludes with Aaron's assessment of emerging vulnerabilities and potential flashpoints in the financial system.

Will generative artificial intelligence lead to nirvana or dystopia? Great question, which we don’t exactly answer in this week’s podcast, but we do weigh the most critical downstream effects of the technology based on recent research done by urban economists Frank Levy and Scott Abrahams. We assess how GenAI impacts the benefits of a college degree, the nation’s political dynamics, and which metro area economies will win (think Savannah) and lose (think San Francisco).

Moody’s Analytics colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to recap the April jobs report, along with the potpourri of other economic data released this week. Marisa dives into other labor market data, Cris tackles GDP, and Mark discusses consumer confidence. All along the way, Mark points out the thorns in recent data. The team also provides an update on their recession probabilities.

Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team’s recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist.