Gaurav, Suren, Charlie, and Aidan explore the new peace in the Middle East. They start with the newly agreed twenty-point peace plan between Israel and Hamas and explore its regional implications. Despite limited details and timelines, the ceasefire has held and advanced further than previous efforts—particularly in terms of hostage returns. While full implementation remains distant, all parties are still engaged. The conversation then shifts to Iran, including peace efforts, U.S. sanctions, and the waning influence of Iran and its proxies. The team also examines the Houthis’ disruption of shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, followed by a discussion on oil price stability amid escalating regional tensions. In closing, the conversation reflects on the resilience of GCC economies, which have defied regional geopolitical instability to attract global capital and deliver strong growth.

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew, and Kamil break down Europe’s latest economic and political events. They begin with France’s ongoing political saga—where recent developments have reduced immediate instability but left deeper issues unresolved, casting further doubt on the government’s fiscal recovery plans. The team then explores the impact that U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will have on Europe and on the Continent's long-term investment outlook. Finally, they turn to industrial production data, underscoring the persistent weakness in manufacturing as the early-year boost from frontloading continues to fade.

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise meet face-to-face for the first time to unpack the flurry of developments shaping the Asia-Pacific. Front and centre are fresh U.S. tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and furniture. Indonesia and the EU sign a long-awaited free trade agreement, while Japan’s ruling LDP looks set to shift further right with its first potential female prime minister. On the data front, the team delve into export and industrial production numbers as the effect of frontloading finally wanes for most economies. Taiwan’s AI boom however, continues to defy gravity. Plus: what makes a cabinet a cabinet? The team gets briefly philosophical in between the data dump.

Kamil, Stefan, Denise, and David join Gaurav to discuss the rationale for central bank independence and the goals of monetary policy. The discussion then turns to decisions made by central banks in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after the pandemic, when central banks grappled with surging inflation

In the first episode of a mini-series on global manufacturing, Gaurav and the team take a sweeping look at the sector’s evolution—from its roots in the liberalization and technological breakthroughs of the late 20th century to the geopolitical tensions shaping it today. They explore how different development models across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. have created distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, and how China’s rise—accelerated by its entry into the WTO in 2001—and recent headwinds have reshaped the global landscape. The conversation then turns to the changing nature of supply chains, the increasing irrelevance of the WTO, and the impact of shifting global consumption patterns. Finally, they examine the modern tech frontier—from semiconductors to clean tech—and the new geopolitics of manufacturing, including Europe’s energy shock and the rise of Chinese EVs.

Gaurav, Sarah, and Denise dive into the latest run of data out of ASEAN, where frontloading has helped prop up growth in the first half of the year. But with U.S. tariffs finally kicking in from August, the team weighs the risks to the region’s second-half outlook. Inflation remains moderate and within central bank targets, prompting a wave of monetary easing amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, growth forecasts have been slashed across much of the region. The team also unpacks the concept of output gaps and what they reveal about ASEAN’s trajectory in the years to come.

Brittany Merollo joins the team to discuss France's ongoing political shake-up and the appointment of a new prime minister. They assess the implications for the 2026 budget, the fading prospects for fiscal consolidation, and France’s subdued growth outlook. Before they get into France, Barbara, Kamil, and Gaurav unpack the Eurozone’s latest growth figures, exploring how frontloading boosted first-half performance and what that means for the second half. There is some upside for investment which is now expected to grow modestly rather than contract, but it contrasts with weakening prospects for consumer spending. They also touch upon the diverging trends in confidence indicators, with progress in the euro zone’s outsize services sector reversing, while manufacturing confidence continues to recover.

With frontloading fading and trade on shaky ground, Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan sift through Asia-Pacific’s latest export figures for signs of a slowdown. China’s manufacturing PMI offers little comfort; soft across the board and especially grim on the jobs front. Over in Japan, a surge in rice prices is keeping inflation sticky, but wage growth isn’t playing ball. So why won’t the BoJ hike? The team also dives into China’s flirtation with deflation, a Thai economy on edge, and why Southeast Asia’s political unrest—from Jakarta to Bangkok—is about more than just the headlines. Plus: chips and investment pledges are shaking up trade talks, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings spark questions about whether China, India and Russia are really turning a new page or just putting on a show.

Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew return to discuss the latest news on the European economy. Kamil unpacks the latest trade and industrial production data and what they reveal about the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Is the weakness just a reversal of earlier frontloading in pharmaceuticals, or are tariffs starting to bite? Meanwhile, Andrew discusses the key takeaways from the text of the EU-U.S. trade agreement and what it suggests about the likely path of tariff rates. The damage from tariffs is set to grow and uncertainty remains high, but the team share a sense that the risks of recession in Europe have receded and even manage to agree on the odds.

Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the broader feasibility of U.S. energy exports. They then turn to America’s defence strategy and the implications for Europe, before ending with thoughts on the potential for the economic reconstruction of both countries. Bringing this war to an end on terms that are fair for Ukraine and ensuring an enduring peace is much easier said than done, but surely worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize?

Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future technologies could fundamentally change the key drivers of these economies.

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implications for growth, investment, and global trade, and why financial markets still seem oddly calm. Are tariffs now a general-purpose economic weapon for the U.S.? And will European and Asian economies ever fight back, or are we all just frogs in slowly boiling water?

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will brighten the mood, but David warns that the pace of easing is likely to remain gradual.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started?

After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again.

Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast.

Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary.

Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.

Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks. In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best.

Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!