Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
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Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs.
In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.
Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.
Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.
India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.
Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.
Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.
The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.
We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.
The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.
Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.
Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.
The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.
Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.
Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.
It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.
China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.
Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
