Patrick unpacks the true power of variance, exploring why downswings, breakeven stretches, and other extreme events aren't as rare as they seem. From selection bias to simulation data, he highlights how understanding variance can transform your mindset and bankroll management strategy. This deep dive into the realities of variance will help you stay focused, prepared, and resilient.
Mentioned in this episode • Primedope Variance Calculator • Selection Bias in Variance Calculations • Beyond Downswings: Why Extended Breakeven Runs Are Inevitable
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Matthew Marinelli is a high-stakes online cash game player who has amassed over $2.5 million in profits since turning pro in 2018. A key member and contributor to Mobius Cash, Matt shares insights on his most successful year to date in this episode. He also discusses GGPoker's shocking decision to shut down NL5K+ games for public access and evaluates the profitability of other poker sites.
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Struggling to hit your monthly poker volume goals? In this episode, we dive deep into effective strategies to help you boost your play volume and maintain consistency at the tables. Learn how to embrace the Minimum Viable Action and adopt a "Just Do It" mentality to overcome procrastination and build unstoppable momentum. Drawing inspiration from Neil Gaiman and Mark Manson, I'll provide actionable tips for creating disciplined routines, eliminating distractions, and fostering a growth mindset.
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Today, I’m having a conversation with two key figures from WPT Global. The first is Alex Scott, the President of WPT Global. Alex brings two decades of experience in online poker to his role, having previously worked with major platforms like PokerStars and Full Tilt. At WPT Global, he's focused on driving innovation in player experience and game integrity. Joining Alex is John Andress, who leads security solutions for WPT Global through his role at A5 Labs, WPT's security partner. John's spent almost a decade as a high-stakes professional player before transitioning to the security side of the business. In our conversation today, we'll explore the current state of online poker, the challenges and innovations in game security, including bots, collusion and RTA, the rake and game quality at WPT, and their shared vision for WPT Global's future in online poker.
Timestamps
0:00 Intro
1:00 Alex's Introduction to Poker
2:16 How the Poker World Has Changed Since Alex Started
6:25 The Poker Marketplace is Becoming More Efficient
8:35 WPT's AI Security System
12:20 Bot Detection
16:00 Community Efforts to Detect Bots
18:37 WPT's Commitment to Transparency
21:45 Ad Break
22:58 Challenges of Managing High Stakes Games
25:05 Why Some Sites Have Ditched High Stakes
28:30 The Intangible Value of High Stakes for Poker Sites
31:20 Why Did WPT Cut Rewards to Affiliates?
33:28 How Does WPT's Rake Compare to GGPoker?
38:05 Low Rake is Not Feasible For New Sites
39:55 What Happens if the Rake Goes Higher?
41:49 Are Reg Battles Important for Poker to Grow?
43:40 Are Reg Battles Currently Feasible on WPT?
45:58 Flexible Rake Systems
47:52 WPT's FairGame System
52:16 How FairGame Impacts Traffic on WPT
54:15 Can WPT Be the Site the Community is Holding Out For?
56:18 Verification Process for Sponsors
58:42 Are Pros Getting Shadowbanned From Tables?
1:01:45 Joining Forces with Other Sites To Catch Cheaters
1:06:22 Alex's and John's 5-Year Visions For WPT WPT GlobalA5Labs Follow Alex Scott on Twitter/X
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In this episode, I explore how to structure your poker study time like optimizing a high-performance engine. From building a strong theoretical foundation to tuning your exploits and fixing leaks in your game, I'll cover daily, weekly, and monthly routines to help you perform at your best.
Discussed in this episode • Mobius RNG (Free App) • Time Timer (Amazon)
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In this episode, I’m sharing some of the tech and products that have made a real difference in my life, from boosting my focus and relaxation to improving my poker sessions. Whether you’re looking for better sleep, more comfort at your desk, or tools to help with concentration, I’ll walk you through what’s worked for me and why it might help you too.
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In this podcast, we explore the threat of AI bots and their impact on the future of online poker. From advancements in technology to the challenges of detection and regulation, we'll explore the risks that AI poses, and what the poker community can expect in the years to come.
Discussed in this episode:
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In this episode, I cover the evolving strategies around bet sizing in no-limit hold'em. We'll look at how bet sizing affects your strategy and EV, drawing on lessons from the introduction of solvers like PioSolver to the recent updates from GTO Wizard AI. I'll discuss how using tailored bet sizes can provide an advantage, as well as the risks of overcomplicating your strategy. Whether you're focused on maximizing value or avoiding mistakes, this episode will offer practical insights to improve your game.
Note: At 1:05 I mispoke. I meant to say, "...with the arrival of Ruse, we've started to see some less obvious but still important bet sizing improvements."
Discussed in this episode:
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The internet trolls will definitely go after me for this one.
Discussed in this episode:
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This episode explores five key lessons derived from extensive poker coaching experience. We discuss important aspects of the game that often go beyond mere strategy, including:
- Emotional control and decision-making under pressure
- Effective approaches to studying and improving your game
- Developing a long-term perspective for sustained success
These insights are applicable to players of all levels and aim to provide a deeper understanding of the mental and strategic elements that contribute to poker success.
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Patrick delves into how misunderstanding selection bias can skew your perception of variance in poker, leading you to mistake normal fluctuations for signs of a deeper problem.
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In light of GGPoker's recent purchase of WSOP for $500 million, Patrick revisits his posts about GGPoker's extremely high rake in cash games, and what the company's entrance into US online poker markets could mean for the future of poker. In this episode, you'll also learn how to calculate how beatable your games are based on the average loss rates of recreational players.
Note: I mentioned at 6:40 that most regulars on GGPoker report to me that they get about 3-4 bb/100 in rake back. I should clarify that this is at low-mid stakes. At 5knl+, the rakeback is much lower.
Discussed in this episode
• X: Reg Win Rates on GGPoker by Number of Hands Played • X: Average Win Rates of Regs, GGPoker vs. PokerStars • TwoPlusTwo: GGPoker Rakeback Collusion Investigation
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In our first episode, we dive into the controversial reports surrounding Ignition Poker. Patrick examines player allegations of bots and collusion, mysterious refunds, and unexplained bans. Learn about the potential implications for online poker, get practical advice for navigating these issues. This episode is essential listening for every online poker player concerned about game integrity and the future of the sport.
Discussed in this episode
Mobius Poker on X: Players Report Bots and Colluders Bypassing Ignition's Security...
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