I increasingly believe that to invest in today’s markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. 

Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. 

Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. 

It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. 

In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. 

Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, I wanted to take a look at the UK’s energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options. 

The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted. 

In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.  

So, I was delighted to be joined, last week, by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation. 

While we covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero.
 

While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs. 

As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it both entertaining and informative. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

As COP delegates use a road cut through the Amazon to attend a gathering of people who tell us we need to make sacrifices to protect the planet, the wider world is pivoting away from climate alarmism toward more human-centric policy choices.

UK energy policy is becoming a critical political battleground ahead of the next election, and the North Sea hydrocarbon industry is a focal point.

As Professor Sir Dieter Helm said this week in the Times,

"Global climate change won’t be mitigated by halting licences in the UK’s sector of the North Sea and instead importing oil and gas from elsewhere (including the Norwegian sector). Replacing North Sea gas with American LNG is environmentally much worse than “home-grown” gas. It also just makes the balance of payments worse, alongside all the imported gas from Norway and the imported electricity from Europe."

I recently spoke to Watt Energy consultant Kathryn Porter and Serica Energy plc CFO Martin Copeland to discuss this very issue. How long do we have to save the North Sea from this ideologically riven madness? What steps do we need to take to fix our astronomically high energy costs? Is the UK prepared to sacrifice its hydrocarbon industry to the gods of net-zero?

Coming soon, In The Company of Mavericks, on all good podcast apps ...

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

What’s happening to gold? 

Is the so-called debasement trade over? Have we just seen another FOMO driven momentum bubble hit a blowout top?

Is that it for another decade? 

Of course, a bubble is a bull market that we are not involved in, and from the outside, the recent frenzy over gold is just another case of market hysteria, right? Conspiracy theories like the dollar debasement are just, well, conspiracy theories, right? 

This week I invited two long standing and respected sound money advocates to share their thoughts on gold, where it came from, where it might be heading and why. 

We had a great chat.  

Dominic Frisby has recently published his latest book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics & Power and is also the man behind the excellent Flying Frisby Substack …

Wealth manager Tim Price of Price Value Partners is also the author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, a rational guide to irrational financial markets.  

We discussed why gold is valuable, why the gold price has recently been so strong and how investors should think about gold as an investment asset class in a world of government deficits, spiralling debt and uncertain geopolitics

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; hopefully, it is informative and entertaining. Please take professional advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Tim Price   

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Earlier this week, I chatted with Dominic Frisby of the Flying Frisby and Tim Price of Price Value Partners to talk about gold and related issues.

I asked them: Is the fiat debasement inevitable? Should we be buying the dip in precious metals prices? And much, much more ....

Don't miss it. Make sure you are subscribed, dropping soon on all good podcast apps. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Two of my favourite Substackers, Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal, have recently written about the future of Europe and its predicament in a rapidly changing world. And from their differing perspectives, they both agreed that it is not good.

So, earlier this week I brought them together to share their views, one from the perspective of an experienced trade dispute lawyer and former policymaker in Berlin, the other a straight talking energy analyst and green chicken from his coop in mid-western American flyover country.

We discussed the factors that have led Europe to its current position, its role in a multipolar world, and its struggles to adapt to these new, urgent realities. 

I must warn you that the consequences they draw are not positive for Europe or its institutions, and they pull no punches in their delivery. In short, they agree that the consequences of current established European policies will likely lead to a collapse of the EU; a consequence of the delusion, incompetence and intransigence of its established political class. 

But as always, nothing you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but solely for your information and hopefully entertainment.

I began by asking each of them about the origins of the EU and how Europe got itself into the position it finds itself today. 

Please enjoy my conversation with Doomberg and Brawlster.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal have published pieces recently about the economic, political and financial predicament of Europe and the EU in our rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Both argue that it doesn't look good. 

So, earlier this week, I brought them together to share their views. We discussed how we got here, the main factors, and how Europe is positioned in the emerging multipolar world order. I must warn you, they don't hold any punches. 

Full episode coming soon, please subscribe. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

Have you ever wondered why some equities earn the special designation of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone now knows the Costco story and how great it is. We can buy that great business, but we risk paying the wrong price.
 
 So, what enables such businesses to compound? How can we identify their critical characteristics to improve our odds of buying them at a fair or even low valuation?
 
I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and who spend their time searching the UK market for precisely these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity specialists started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock.
 
Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.

In this episode, we discuss Wise and Goodwin as examples of how very different businesses can compound growth. They share key characteristics, such as high return on capital, growth capacity and duration. 

Very often, these businesses are founder-led or family-owned, allowing them to pivot when circumstances change and take a considered long-term view about investing. 

We also discuss acquisitional compound growth typified by UK-listed Halma and Diploma, or North American-listed Constellation Software. These companies derive their compounding from making serial acquisitions funded from internally generated cash flows. 

Finally, we discuss those companies that might earn the serial compounder tag in the years to come.

But of course, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Mark Wharrier and Simon Young.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Ever wondered why some equities get that special tag of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone knows the Costco story and how great it is. You risk buying a great business at the wrong price.

What enables such businesses to compound? How can you identify their critical characteristics so that you can increase the odds of buying them at a fair or low valuation?

I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre and professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and spending their time searching the UK market for exactly these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity fund managers both started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock.

Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied current portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.

COMING SOON on all good podcast platforms ... subscribe to get more great episodes. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.         

It was a true pleasure last week to chat to the meme trader, parody hedge fund manager and Shrubstack author himself, Le Shrub.

Le Shrub uses humour and parody to highlight opportunities and turning points in financial markets, which he brings to life for his followers on his Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator website. 

We discuss the role of satire in understanding the stranger than fiction world we inhabit. Why it only makes sense when you realise it is all nonsense … and how his fictional characters, Klaus and the Pod Monkeys, can shed light on the investment landscape we inhabit.   

Shrub gives his thoughts on the asymmetry of global markets, why he thinks Nvidia Must Die and why currency debasement is a feature of the Golden Age of Grift, not a bug. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. 

Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Le Shrub.

I wrote about Satire & Investing as a tribute to Tom Lehrer, who died earlier this year, where I mentioned Le Shrub's great work.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

It was a great pleasure and a lot of fun to catch up with the master meme trader, the Eurotrash hedge fund parody investor himself, Le Shrub. 

Learn how he understands the world through satire and memes, as he says, 'nothing makes sense until you accept it's all nonsense.' 

Full episode dropping soon on all good podcast apps. Please make sure you're subscribed. 

Last week I had a conversation with Marvin Barth, author of the Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! Substacks.

Marvin is what I would call an evolved policy wonk. A PhD economist, Marvin’s career includes working for The Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements, the US Treasury Department and several major Wall Street banks.

He has a well-informed and holistic view of the world and its core drivers, which should be interesting to everyone, but particularly those of us trying to understand how to position long-term investment portfolios in these chaotic and challenging times.

I was keen to speak to Marvin about his Global Entropy framework, which he first outlined on his “paid for” Thematic Markets service two years ago, but has recently republished along with an epilogue on his non-paywalled Substack, Seriously, Marvin!

In a wide-ranging discussion, which I found challenging to edit, we discussed what Global Entropy is and how it has commonly been interpreted by differing versions of cognitive dissonance or derangements among universalist liberal elites.       

As always, what you are about to hear is not intended as advice, but rather for your enjoyment and hopefully, entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Marvin Barth.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week I was joined by economist and Substack author Marvin Barth for a chat about his work about Global Entropy as a way of thinking about our increasingly chaotic world. Coming soon, please subscribe. 

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes.

Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin. 

Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues. 

Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.  

In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. 

What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state? 

Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.  

Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. 

However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes.

Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin. 

Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues. 

Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.  

In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. 

What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state? 

Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.  

Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. 

However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French, wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain? 

This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”  

An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform? 

Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months? 

Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029? 

To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei? 

Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises, before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then, he has his doubts. 

We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer-term potential to global investors, who, after all, must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest in recently. 

We had a great discussion, but as always, none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain? 

This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”  

An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform? 

Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months? 

Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029? 

To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei? 

Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then he has his doubts. 

We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer term  potential to global investors, who, after all must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest recently. 

We had a great discussion, but as always none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.

Brought to you  by Progressive Equity.

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. 

A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”

The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. 

He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. 

He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. 

The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. 

We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. 

We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. 

We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. 

As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. 

A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”

The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. 

He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. 

He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. 

The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. 

We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. 

We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. 

We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. 

As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. 

With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is China investable? If so, how do you go about it? What are the basic ground rules? 

Recently, I spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy.
 

Rufus Frazier has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world. 

In a fascinating discussion, we cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?   

Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China’s market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.

For example, China’s Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic. 

Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. 

Now comes the bit where I remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. Please take professional advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. 

And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.