Is the UK heading for a fiscal crisis? Or can policymakers still steer the public finances back to a sustainable path?

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report warns that, without action, UK government debt could climb above 270% of GDP by the 2070s - driven by rising borrowing, an ageing population, and the fiscal impacts of climate change.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies) is joined by Richard Hughes (Chair, OBR) and Ben Zaranko (Associate Director, IFS) to explore the forces shaping the long-term outlook for the public finances, the 50 risks highlighted by the OBR, and what can be done now to avoid a crisis later.

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Has Keir Starmer’s Labour government really brought in a “new way of doing government”? Or are its five missions more rhetoric than reality?

To mark the one-year anniversary of Labour’s 2024 general election victory, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Institute for Government held a joint event exploring the government’s approach to governing – and whether its decisions, trade-offs and spending priorities reflect a genuinely mission-driven approach.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we bring you the recording of that event, hosted by Hannah White (Director, Institute for Government), with panelists Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies), Stephen Bush (Columnist, Financial Times) and Gemma Tetlow (Chief Economist, Institute for Government).

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Today, we’re zooming out to ask: what are the biggest economic challenges facing the UK in the years ahead?

As Paul Johnson hosts his final episode before stepping down as IFS director, he’s joined by incoming director Helen Miller to reflect on the country’s fiscal outlook, the importance of economic growth, and the pressures of an ageing population.

With rising demands on public services, debates over tax policy, and uncertainty around fiscal rules, how should policymakers navigate the road ahead? What choices will the government face to deliver sustainable growth?

Paul and Helen discuss these big-picture questions - and what the coming years might hold.

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Today, we’re asking whether people in the UK will be able to afford a decent standard of living in retirement.

While the foundations of the system—like the state pension and automatic enrolment—are strong, there are growing concerns. Rising state pension ages, the unpredictability of the ‘triple lock’, low private saving rates, and the complexity of managing pension wealth in later life all pose challenges for future retirees.

So, what changes are needed to improve outcomes? What’s the right balance between state support and private saving? And how can pensions be made easier to navigate?

Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson and Senior Research Economist Laurence O’Brien to discuss the findings of the IFS pensions review.

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Today, we’re looking back at one of the most ambitious policies ever introduced for young children in England – Sure Start. 

Launched by the Labour government in 1999, Sure Start aimed to give every child the best start in life by bringing together early education, childcare, health services, and parental support under one roof. At its peak, more than 3,000 centres were operating across the country. But since 2010, the programme has been scaled back, with funding cut by around two-thirds. 

So, what difference did Sure Start really make? How was it implemented? And why does it still shape today’s debates around early years services? 

Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson and former Education Secretary Ed Balls to explore the legacy and lessons of Sure Start.

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Delays in the Crown Court are at record highs, despite more funding and longer court hours. So what’s really causing the growing backlog of serious criminal cases in England and Wales?

In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Ben Zaranko (IFS) and Cassia Rowland (Institute for Government) to explore why court productivity may have slowed, what the consequences are for victims and defendants, and whether more money alone can fix the problem.

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In this episode, we unpack the government's 2025 Spending Review with analysis from experts at the IFS.

Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko to discuss what the Chancellor’s plans mean for public services, government investment, and the broader economic outlook.

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Rising tariffs, deepening tensions between the US and China, and a growing wave of protectionism—are we witnessing the unravelling of globalisation as we know it?

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Paul is joined by Professor Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) to explore the shifting landscape of global trade. Together, they unpack why trade barriers are rising, how trade wars are reshaping international relationships, and what this means for the UK and the global economy.

This episode builds on Meredith’s 2025 IFS Annual Lecture. You can watch the full talk here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIATYktrRM&t=1s

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It's been two months since the government first announced its plans to enact the largest welfare reforms for a generation, aiming 'to help sick and disabled people who can and have the potential to work into jobs’. Since then, there has been considerable debate about the consequences of these reforms.

But why does the government want to implement reforms in the first place? How does the current system work? And what could the impact be for those receiving these benefits?

In this episode, Helen is joined by Tom Waters, Associate Director at IFS, and David Finch, Assistant Director at the Health Foundation, to unpack the government’s proposals and explore what they mean for the future of health-related benefits.

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This week, we’re looking at corporation tax, which was introduced 60 years ago. Across the decades there have been no shortage of predictions that corporate tax revenues will decline, and yet the tax is forecast to raise record amounts in the coming years. 

To pick all of this apart, and to see how Donald Trump and tariffs play into the story, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Amanda Tickel, Head of Tax & Trade Policy for Deloitte UK and Helen Miller, who is Deputy Director at The IFS and leads on our tax work. 

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This week, we look at the Spring Statement. What were the decisions and trade-offs made by Chancellor Reeves? To pick this apart, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Directors Ben Zaranko and Tom Waters.

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This week, we’re looking at The Schools Bill. The bill, which has the full title of The Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill 2024-25, covers children’s social care and education.  

The aim of the bill, as stated on the House of Commons Library website, is to “improve the safeguarding of children and to raise educational standards”. We’re going to be focusing on the schools components.  

To look at this, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Laura McInerney and Luke Sibieta.  

Laura was the founding editor of Schools Week and now co-runs Teacher Tapp, a regular online survey of teachers. Luke is a Research Fellow at The IFS specialising in Education. 

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As baby boomers hold an increasing share of wealth, younger generations are finding it harder to build financial security, often relying on family support for major milestones like homeownership.

In her book Inheritocracy, Eliza Filby argues that – because of this – baby boomers have been good parents but not always great citizens.

To explore the issue, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Eliza and David Sturrock, a Senior Research Economist at the IFS.

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As the OBR comes up with its forecast, which will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the Spring Forecast, one of the concerns may be that it tells her that she is not meeting her fiscal targets. That will require some action. 

Helping Paul explore this are Andy King and Gerard Lyons. Andy previously worked at the OBR and is now a Specialist Partner at Flint Global. Gerard has spent over thirty years in senior roles in the City and in public policy. He is currently Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth. 

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This week, President Trump was inaugurated for his second term and announced plans to impose significant tariffs on imports. But what exactly are tariffs, and how do they work?

In this episode, we dive into the economic consequences of tariffs, why governments use them, and whether they actually achieve their intended goals.

Joining Paul to unpack these questions is Peter Levell, Deputy Research Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and an expert on trade economics.

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The UK’s housing market has long been a source of frustration for renters and homeowners alike, with issues of affordability and availability topping the agenda. The new government has identified housing market failures as a major barrier to economic growth—but what role does the tax system play in these challenges?

In this episode, we’ll dig into how taxes impact the housing market, from the cost of buying and renting to the incentives—or disincentives—they create for landlords, developers, and homeowners. We’ll explore everything from capital gains tax to stamp duty surcharges and council tax policies. Are these tax measures helping or hindering progress? And if reform is needed, where should policymakers begin?

To help answer those questions, Paul is joined by Stuart Adam, Senior Economist at IFS and Tim Leunig, economist at the London School of Economics and former Economic Advisor to Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak.

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Today, we’re turning our attention to France, where a recent Budget has sparked intense debate and raised major questions about the country’s economic future.

France is tackling some big economic challenges: rising public debt, slow growth, and the need for major reforms in areas like pensions and energy. In this episode, we’ll explore what was in the budget, why it caused such a stir, and how it compares to the recent UK budget.

To help us make sense of it all, we're thrilled to welcome Dr. Antoine Bozio, Director of the Institut des Politiques Publiques in Paris.

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From healthcare to education to local government, the public sector delivers essential services—but how can it stay effective and efficient with tightening budgets and rising demand?

In this episode, we examine the UK government’s push to improve public sector productivity. Rachel Reeves is enlisting private sector leaders to tackle inefficiencies in Whitehall, while Wes Streeting has proposed NHS reforms to boost output. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, President-elect Trump has stirred debate by appointing Elon Musk to a new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ to slash costs.

Are public services keeping pace with private sector innovations? What’s driving productivity trends in the UK? And how can policies create better outcomes for everyone?

We’re joined by Ben Zaranko, Associate Director at IFS, and Sam Freedman, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former senior policy adviser to Michael Gove, to unpack these questions and more.

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In the recent budget, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced a £40 billion tax increase, pushing tax as a share of national income to an all time UK high.

Just 6% of that came from an increase in inheritance tax, and just a small fraction of that will come from farmers. And yet it is the tax increase on farmers that has dominated the news headlines. But beyond the change to agricultural reliefs, there were some other big reforms as well - to pensions and business reliefs.

So to discuss how inheritance tax actually changed in the budget, who will be affected and whether it was a good idea, Paul is joined by Helen Miller and David Sturrock, colleagues at the IFS.

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At the end of October, the ONS announced that the fertility rate in England and Wales had fallen to 1.44 births per woman in 2023 - the lowest figure since records began in 1938. 

What will this mean for the population make-up of the country? What other big demographic shifts are occurring? Why is this trend occurring across the developed world? And what will its implications be for the public finances?

To discuss those questions, Paul is joined by Melinda Mills, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Nuffield Professor of Demography at Oxford. And by Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and one of the leading experts on the UK's public finances.

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