The National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin this morning, with its latest tropical weather discussion noting there are no named storms currently in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico. However, the agency continues monitoring tropical waves and broader environmental signals as the climatological ramp-up toward the peak of the season continues[6]. The NWS tropical information portal likewise shows no active Atlantic storms at this time[8]. In the Pacific, NHC advisories remain active on Tropical Depression Ivo in the Eastern Pacific and on Hurricane Henriette in the Central Pacific, with marine warnings in effect for Eastern Pacific waters; these systems are not presently forecast to impact the U.S. East or Gulf coasts but may influence swell and marine conditions downrange[5][6].

Closer to the Gulf, local forecasters have highlighted a broad disturbance producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf Coast. The feature had been given a low chance of tropical development over 48 hours while drifting west, with primary impacts characterized as periods of heavy rain, gusty thunderstorms, and brief street flooding potential along portions of the upper Texas coast and adjacent coastal Louisiana. Even without development, deep tropical moisture was expected to enhance downpours into the weekend time frame in southeast Texas, with locally gusty winds possible in stronger cells[3]. Residents from coastal Louisiana to the upper Texas coast should anticipate intermittent marine hazards such as locally rough seas and reduced visibility near thunderstorms.

Seasonally, NOAA’s updated August outlook continues to call for an above-normal Atlantic season overall, projecting 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes. The update reflects a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, 35 percent near-normal, and 15 percent below-normal, consistent with warm Atlantic waters and other background factors as we approach the core months of activity. Through early August, four named storms have formed, with the next Atlantic name being Erin[1]. While no U.S. coastal warnings are currently in effect from active Atlantic storms, the combination of favorable basin conditions and ongoing tropical waves argues for close monitoring of forecast changes through mid-August[1][6][8].

Looking Ahead: Forecasters will watch for any consolidation of the northern Gulf disturbance as it tracks west and for new African easterly waves that could find more favorable conditions over the Main Development Region later this week. Continue to check NHC outlooks for any new invest areas or formation chances and local NWS offices for rainfall and marine advisories along the Gulf Coast[6][8][3].