In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa. 

For more, check out The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and our Africa page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna to discuss the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what might follow. Richard first talks with Ali about the extent of damage U.S. strikes may have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and incentives for Washington and Tehran to reengage diplomatically. Next, Richard and Yasmine examine how the conflict has affected relations between Gulf Arab capitals and Tehran, and how Gulf states are adapting to a rapidly shifting region. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to assess how Israel’s leadership views the outcome of the war and whether it can translate military into political gains. Finally, Richard talks to Michael about what’s next for American policy in the Middle East.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Iran page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran’s nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation have broken down and how Gulf Arab capitals view the situation. They also talk through Iran’s options to respond and whether there’s still a path back to diplomacy.

For more, check out our latest Hold Your Fire! episode, “Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show”, and our Iran page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck, Yasmine Farouk and Michael Hanna to discuss the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Richard first talks with Ali about how Iranians are experiencing the conflict, the damage Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile program and military leadership, and whether Iran’s regime might offer concessions to end the war. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to discuss Israeli public sentiment and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s objectives in Iran. With Yasmine, he explores how Gulf Arab states view the war. Finally, Richard talks with Michael about President Donald Trump’s shift from opposing Israeli strikes on Iran to seemingly supporting them, divisions within his base over the U.S. joining the war, and whether Washington will bomb or can still find a diplomatic off-ramp.

For more, check out our latest statement, “How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Eleventh-hour Exit from an Escalating War” and our Iran page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s president, Comfort Ero, and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jezequel. He first speaks with Comfort about her recent visit to Mali’s capital, Bamako, and her reflections on the diverging political trajectories of Sahelian countries. Richard then turns to Jean-Hervé for a closer look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after breaking away from the regional bloc ECOWAS last year. They examine the sovereignty narrative promoted by the military regimes and the risk of growing public frustration as economic and security conditions stagnate. They also talk about the jihadist coalition JNIM, which has stepped up attacks on towns and cities in the region. They explore the group’s goals, leadership and the, for now, seemingly remote prospect of talks as military leaders prioritise military operations. Finally, they touch on how the AES countries’ foreign relations may evolve amid shifting regional dynamics.

For more, check out our EU Watchlist entry “Defining a New Approach to the Sahel’s Military-led States” and our Sahel project page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.

For more, check out our Iran country page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page.

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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.

In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.

For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page. 

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger.

For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Project Director Samina Ahmed, and Asia Program Director Pierre Prakash to discuss the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which followed days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Richard first speaks with Praveen about the mood in India following the ceasefire and its investigation into the late-April attack in India-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists – an assault India blames on Pakistan-sponsored militants and which triggered last week’s brief war. With Samina, they unpack the view from Pakistan, the toll the fighting took across the country, and safeguards the two sides can put in place to prevent future crises from escalating. Finally, Richard talks with Pierre about what diplomacy over Kashmir and tensions between India and Pakistan might entail and why South Asia deserves greater outside attention.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our India-Pakistan (Kashmir) page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington’s priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump’s discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump’s discussions in the Gulf, including Israel’s new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, and other hard-hit areas, how U.S. aid cuts have hampered the emergency response and the extent to which China and others have stepped in. They explore how Myanmar’s civil war complicates relief efforts, with the army largely absent from rescue operations, and whether the disaster might impact military leader Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power. They also unpack the evolving policies of Myanmar’s big neighbours, China and India, and what might break a stalemate in an increasingly intractable and neglected crisis.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our recent Q&A “Support Vital for Myanmar’s Quake Victims, Despite Military Obstacles”, our briefing “Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State” and our Myanmar country page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East. 

For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack how the PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains has reacted to Öcalan’s call and how the conflict has influenced Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. They discuss implications for north-eastern Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed with Türkiye-backed groups, whether the efforts by Syria’s new leadership to integrate the SDF into a new state structure can address Ankara’s security concerns and Israel’s potential support for the SDF. They also assess how the public in Türkiye has reacted to the latest initiative to end the conflict and where the process might be headed next.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our visual explainer “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, our latest War & Peace podcast “After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond” and our Türkiye country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO membership and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security Conference. They discuss the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh intended to lay groundwork for further diplomacy to end the Ukraine war and what role Kyiv and Europe might play in future rounds. They assess whether European capitals can step up to shape the future of the continent's security. They also discuss dynamics within President Trump's team, what to make of his statements about the U.S.’s own territorial expansion and his attacks on Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran’s diminished regional influence, given Israel’s hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page.

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