In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has changed under Syria’s new leadership and the daunting task the authorities face in unifying the country’s armed groups, including efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the north east. They also delve into outbreaks of sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze-majority areas, concerns about the political transition’s inclusiveness and Syria’s complicated relations with Israel. Finally, they trace al-Sharaa’s evolution from his militant past to the Syrian presidency and discuss whether domestic headwinds could derail his achievements on the world stage.

For more, check out our Syria page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect Cameroon’s long-running Anglophone conflict and risks for further escalation. Richard then turns to Jean-Herve to discuss the blockade imposed by the militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has cut off fuel supplies to the capital Bamako. They examine why the military has struggled to secure key supply roads, whether the blockade signals a shift in JNIM’s strategy, how it might shape public sentiment toward Mali’s military rulers and whether the blockade paves the way for a jihadist takeover.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Cameroon and Mali pages.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Venezuela and Andes expert Phil Gunson and Latin America & Caribbean director Renata Segura about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. They assess the large-scale military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation but widely seen as part of a broader campaign to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They unpack U.S. strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats and how effective such measures are in curbing the narcotics trade. They talk about the evolution of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, divisions within Donald Trump’s team over policy and how Venezuelans view the latest escalation. They look at the role of Venezuela’s military and armed groups and how they might respond to foreign intervention. Finally, they consider Washington’s next steps and assess Trump’s approach to the Western hemisphere more broadly and how Latin American leaders view his policies. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our statement “Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela” and our Latin America & Caribbean regional page.

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In this update episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn director Alan Boswell about the paramilitary RSF capturing North Dafur’s capital El Fasher, the reports of horrific violence in the city and the implications for the trajectory of Sudan’s war. They discuss how the RSF managed to take control of the city after a siege of more than a year and the situation in El Fasher now amid a worsening humanitarian crisis and reports of mass killings of civilians. They discuss the de facto partition of Sudan with the RSF now controlling most of western Sudan and the army holding the capital Khartoum and the east. They also explore whether the capture of El Fasher may derail U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire.

For more, check out our recent episode Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War? And our Sudan country page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process. 

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may be headed after the ceasefire in Gaza. They examine the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group links to Israel’s assault on Gaza. They assess Israel’s recent attacks in Yemen that killed senior Houthi political and military figures, and how the group is adapting. They also unpack the Houthis’ ties to Tehran, as they have become the most capable actor within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, as well as the group’s sharper rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Finally, they discuss the standoff between the Houthis and its Yemeni rivals, the state of the internationally recognised government under the Presidential Leadership Council, risks of renewed conflict, and prospects for reviving intra-Yemeni talks.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Yemen country pages.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Ibraheem Bahiss and South Asia director Samina Ahmed about clashes this week between Afghan and Pakistani forces. Richard first speaks with Ibraheem about what triggered the latest confrontation, including reported Pakistani strikes on Pakistani militants, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Kabul and in border regions. They trace the strained relations between Kabul and Islamabad and why the Taliban authorities struggle to address Pakistan’s concerns – with Islamabad accusing the Kabul authorities of sheltering the TTP and allowing cross-border attacks – even as they have reined in other foreign militants. Richard then turns to Samina to discuss the spike in militant violence in Pakistan’s western regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, how Islamabad views possible rapprochement between the Taliban and India, Islamabad’s broader foreign relations – including a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and warmer ties to Washington – and the risk of further clashes.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Afghanistan and Pakistan country pages.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael, Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and Gulf & Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk about the latest shifts in Sudan’s war and recent diplomatic efforts. They chart recent battlefield developments, including the situation in El Fasher in northern Darfur, where fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is particularly intense amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They examine how the balance of power between the warring parties is evolving, the interests of outside actors supplying arms, and the RSF’s push to establish a parallel government. They also look at diplomatic efforts to end the war, including the recent announcement by the U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, known as the Quad, outlining a roadmap for peace in Sudan, how the RSF and the Sudanese army are responding, and what the initiative can realistically achieve.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our recent Q&A “All Eyes on the Quad: How the U.S. and Its Partners Can Push for Peace in Sudan”, Alan’s Foreign Affairs piece “Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come” and our Sudan page.  

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In this Special Episode of Hold Your Fire!, two years of war in Gaza after Hamas’s 7 October attacks, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s former president and former U.S. Special Envoy to Iran and official in several previous U.S. administrations, Rob Malley. They discuss Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, Hamas’ reaction to the proposal and where things might be headed next. They discuss Rob’s new book, co-authored with Hussein Agha, “Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel-Palestine”, which traces the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the two-state solution, potential missed opportunities, and whether Washington or others could ever have clinched a peace agreement. They discuss the unravelling of Iran’s “axis of resistance” and what, if anything, could deter Israel from continuing to pursue its objectives by force. Finally, Richard reflects with Rob on what it means to be both an insider and an outsider in policymaking.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out Rob’s new book, co-authored with Hussein Agha, “Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine”, our last episode “What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan?” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit from it, the many uncertainties it raises, and what it could mean for Gaza’s future.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about President Donald Trump’s new 20-point proposal to end the war in Gaza. They unpack how the plan emerged and the external pressure surrounding it, against the backdrop of Israel’s 9 September strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders, its ongoing ground offensive in Gaza City, and the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the strip. They discuss what the proposal entails, who might benefit, the key uncertainties around its provisions and timeline, how Palestinians are reacting, and what it could mean for future governance in Gaza and for easing the humanitarian crisis. They also discuss responses inside Israel, including among Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, and how Arab and European capitals, having already thrown their support behind the plan, should move forward. The episode was recorded before Hamas responded to the plan. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our recent Q&A “Can the World Make Recognition of Palestine’s Statehood Matter?” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts to end the war, and what might lie ahead.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, Europe director Olga Oliker and chief of policy Stephen Pomper. They unpack recent developments along Ukraine’s frontlines and the role of drones. They discuss President Trump’s August meeting with President Putin in Alaska, the Trump team’s mixed messages  on what kind of deal Russia and Ukraine might be willing to accept, and what to make of Trump’s rhetoric at the UN General Assembly. They also look at the mood in Ukraine and the recent controversy over a bill that would have curbed anti-corruption agencies. Finally, they touch on Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO countries, whether Moscow might further test NATO’s resolve and the future of European security.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our commentary Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War and our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan about what to expect from this year’s UN General Assembly High-Level Week. They discuss the mood at the UN as the second Trump administration both finds its feet at the world body and makes drastic funding cuts, forcing the UN to scale back humanitarian operations and lay off thousands of staff in New York and agencies. They examine the conflicts likely to dominate the agenda, including mounting global fury at Israel’s assault on Gaza, shifting global views on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the conflict in Sudan, and the challenges of Syria’s new government in its dealings with the UN. Finally, they consider the future of UN peacekeeping and whether the organisation can endure as much of the post-1945 multilateral order unravels.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For More, check out our latest briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2025-2026, our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2025 and our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa. 

For more, check out The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and our Africa page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna to discuss the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what might follow. Richard first talks with Ali about the extent of damage U.S. strikes may have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and incentives for Washington and Tehran to reengage diplomatically. Next, Richard and Yasmine examine how the conflict has affected relations between Gulf Arab capitals and Tehran, and how Gulf states are adapting to a rapidly shifting region. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to assess how Israel’s leadership views the outcome of the war and whether it can translate military into political gains. Finally, Richard talks to Michael about what’s next for American policy in the Middle East.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Iran page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran’s nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation have broken down and how Gulf Arab capitals view the situation. They also talk through Iran’s options to respond and whether there’s still a path back to diplomacy.

For more, check out our latest Hold Your Fire! episode, “Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show”, and our Iran page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck, Yasmine Farouk and Michael Hanna to discuss the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Richard first talks with Ali about how Iranians are experiencing the conflict, the damage Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile program and military leadership, and whether Iran’s regime might offer concessions to end the war. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to discuss Israeli public sentiment and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s objectives in Iran. With Yasmine, he explores how Gulf Arab states view the war. Finally, Richard talks with Michael about President Donald Trump’s shift from opposing Israeli strikes on Iran to seemingly supporting them, divisions within his base over the U.S. joining the war, and whether Washington will bomb or can still find a diplomatic off-ramp.

For more, check out our latest statement, “How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Eleventh-hour Exit from an Escalating War” and our Iran page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s president, Comfort Ero, and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jezequel. He first speaks with Comfort about her recent visit to Mali’s capital, Bamako, and her reflections on the diverging political trajectories of Sahelian countries. Richard then turns to Jean-Hervé for a closer look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after breaking away from the regional bloc ECOWAS last year. They examine the sovereignty narrative promoted by the military regimes and the risk of growing public frustration as economic and security conditions stagnate. They also talk about the jihadist coalition JNIM, which has stepped up attacks on towns and cities in the region. They explore the group’s goals, leadership and the, for now, seemingly remote prospect of talks as military leaders prioritise military operations. Finally, they touch on how the AES countries’ foreign relations may evolve amid shifting regional dynamics.

For more, check out our EU Watchlist entry “Defining a New Approach to the Sahel’s Military-led States” and our Sahel project page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.

For more, check out our Iran country page.

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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page.

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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.

In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.

For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page. 

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger.

For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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