The dollar is starting to move more aggressively, driving higher and crossing key thresholds in a whole host of currency exchanges. Not only that, this current “strengthening” is highly synchronized. Both of those factors, the synchronization and breaching multiple ranges, are beginning to more strongly point to the next stage in this ongoing cycle.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
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There are growing concerns - and a growing pile of evidence and reports - indicating the *shadow* banking system is suppressing potential losses for no legitimate reason. Here we examine where they are coming from and what the latest data shows.
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Eurodollar University Memberships: What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method.
If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you’re in the right place.
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S&P Global Private Credit: The Rising ‘Defaults’
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/resources/private-credit-the-rising-defaults
Lincoln International
https://www.lincolninternational.com/news/the-lincoln-private-market-index-records-another-quarter-of-growth-in-q2/
Bloomberg Default Warnings Start to Pile Up in Private Credit Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/default-warnings-start-to-pile-up-in-the-private-credit-market
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Now that the Federal Reserve is back to cutting rates, we can start looking ahead to how low they might go. Not only that, also how low Treasury yields and the entire curve get. While Economists wrongly rely on bad theories put into econometric models, we have a wealth of good and valid information (once again proving correct) from which we can make some reasonable judgements.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Era
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-era
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Disclaimer
This video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
A sad report as Argentina's badly-needed chainsaw is running into a bigger one - the eurodollar. President Milie was forced to admit the market is in panic-mode as the peso plunges in a way that's all-too-familiar for eurodollar watchers. Push comes to shove, the latter simply has the biggest chainsaw and it is using the thing that the world needs to be watching carefully.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
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Bloomberg Argentina Assets Slide as Milei Summons Cabinet After Defeat
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/argentina-bonds-slump-on-milei-s-defeat-in-buenos-aires-vote
Bloomberg Milei Defies Forecasts So Far as Argentina’s Peso Strengthens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/milei-defies-forecasts-so-far-as-argentina-s-peso-strengthens-usd-ars
AP Argentina President Milei suffers crushing defeat in Buenos Aires provincial election
https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-javier-milei-cristina-fernandez-peronism-fecba6d106eb2c0f2440e9fca298e470
Cato Deregulation in Argentina: Milei Takes “Deep Chainsaw” to Bureaucracy and Red Tape
https://www.cato.org/free-society/spring-2025/deregulation-argentina-milei-takes-deep-chainsaw-bureaucracy-red-tape
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Foreigners continue their epic buying binge in USTs and US$ assets, totally defying the narrative everyone around the world is ditching America. Despite the intent of so many to make this political, there is nothing political about this, purely economics (small "e"). We keep more evidence and data showing what those really are, and foreigners know it only too well.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Theme
In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.
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Bloomberg Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Climb to Record Level
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/foreign-holdings-of-treasuries-reach-record-even-as-china-sells
https://www.eurodollar.university
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For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan is selling stocks out of its vast portfolio. The announcement shocked the markets though mostly the media. Is this what it seems to be, or does the Japanese government have a trick up its sleeve? A crystal clear answer can be found among Japan's households as this is one of the best examples ever of modern "monetary" policy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BoJ Statement
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2025/k250919a.pdf
Bloomberg BOJ Unveils ETF Sales Plan, Keeps Door Open for October Hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/boj-keeps-rates-steady-as-ishiba-s-departure-adds-to-uncertainty
Bloomberg Long Bonds Are a Buy as Contagion Fears Ease, TS Lombard Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/long-bonds-are-a-buy-as-contagion-fears-ease-ts-lombard-says
MoneyWise Rice prices have skyrocketed in Japan — and farmers warn that ‘everyone who eats’ that disaster could be near
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-prices-skyrocketed-japan-farmers-172500461.html
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Another grim stat from US real estate, as plans to build houses slid to the lowest since May 2020. There are more homebuilders cutting prices than at any other time since, yes, 2020. But at the same time, mortgage rates have slid to their lowest level in a year. In other words, the housing market is giving off a definite signal, and it's the same one as mortgage rates.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Ben Bernanke’s Testimony April 2008
https://www.cnbc.com/2008/04/02/text-bernankes-testimony.html
Bloomberg US Homebuilder Sentiment Stays Low Despite Mortgage-Rate Drop
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/us-homebuilder-sentiment-stays-low-despite-mortgage-rate-drop
Housewire Optimal Blue: Rate-and-term refis soar 70% in August
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/rate-and-term-refinance-optimal-blue-market-advantage-august-2025/
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Disclaimer
This video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.
China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buying
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buying
Reuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of risks
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/
https://www.eurodollar.university
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For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysis
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.html
CNBC France’s Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime minister
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.html
CNBC France’s borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news ahead
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.html
Bloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy’s in Historic Market Shift
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shift
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The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.
If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you.
https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/
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Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else.
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FRBNY Triparty Repo
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hub
https://www.eurodollar.university
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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
Yesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the increasingly prominent curve reshaping we're seeing everywhere. And "everywhere" absolutely includes the long bond, the 30-year maturity the mainstream has its sights on.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Big Banks Nearly Get Shut Out of Treasury 10-Year Auction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/big-banks-nearly-get-shut-out-of-treasury-10-year-auction
Bloomberg Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Rising
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/podcast-trump-isn-t-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-rising
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It wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.html
Bloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march
Stanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Ahead
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htm
Christopher Waller Let’s Get On with It
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdf
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Disclaimer
This video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Gold keeps soaring and not because of inflation. We know this without any doubt because as copper prices remain stuck, rising bullion against it has crashed the copper-to-gold ratio down to RECORD LOWS. That isn't about expectations for a crash, instead the market is expressing rising probabilities as to the future. One in which the latest data from FRBNY on job finding expectations fits only too well.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.
If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you.
https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com
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FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce
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There was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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ISM Services August 2025
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Disclaimer
This video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Bloomberg America Inc. Swaps Decades for Days in Rush to Commercial Paper
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/30-years-try-30-days-america-inc-flocks-to-commercial-paper
CNN Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimon
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recession
FRBNY John Williams All the Stars We Cannot See
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250825
Bloomberg Won Advances After BOK Governor Defends Currency Intervention
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/won-gains-after-bok-rhee-s-comments-on-forex-intervention-goals
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Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WSJ Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlook
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-tree-boosts-outlook-as-sales-jump-c48b7461
WSJ Dollar General Draws Shoppers Across Income Levels, Raises Outlook
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-general-boosts-outlook-after-earnings-rise-95e4bff8
https://www.eurodollar.university
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