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Last month was Amazon Prime "Day" - now four - and after it was over the whole thing just disappeared down a memory hole. Why? Ask the boxes. What box-makers are reporting is getting to be disturbing. No wonder with the latest on consumer sentiment, consumer goods production, and consumer spending hanging by a tariff-distorted thread.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Amazon Prime
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/prime-day-2025-recap
Retail Dive Amazon once again touts ‘record’ Prime Day sales
https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-day-2025-record-sales/753034/
Bloomberg What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/cardboard-box-sales-fall-in-worrying-sign-for-us-retail
UofM August 2025 Consumer Sentiment
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
https://www.eurodollar.university
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This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
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-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
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HSBC reported shocking results regarding its Hong Kong real estate loans further establishing the proportions of the credit crisis underway there. The news was, however, in line with recent developments in the city, among its banks, and with their Chinese counterparts. The reason was simple enough: all of them are suffering from the same fatal flow which the world, not just SE Asia, is in the middle of paying for.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters HSBC profit tumbles as China losses mount
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hsbc-profit-tumbles-china-losses-mount-2025-07-30/
Guardian
https://slguardian.org/hsbc-flags-73-of-hong-kong-commercial-property-loans-as-risky-amid-market-slump/
Bloomberg Hong Kong’s Economy Has Two Gravity-Defying Puzzles
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-11/hong-kong-interest-rates-and-housing-market-are-puzzles
Bloomberg Hong Kong Property Woes Persist Despite Banks’ Vote of Confidence
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-01/hong-kong-property-woes-persist-despite-banks-vote-of-confidence
https://www.eurodollar.university
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I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
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Oil tumbled today nearing its multi-year low as a massive supply glut hangs over the marketplace. But it's not supply where the glut is coming from. Meanwhile, rates also tumble as everyone - even the media - is getting ready for a September fifty out of the FOMC. In fact, these and the rest of the evidence are all the same thing, different sides of the same crude coin.
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Bloomberg Global Oil Markets Face Record Supply Glut Next Year, IEA Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/global-oil-markets-face-record-supply-glut-next-year-iea-says
IEA August 2025
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025
Bloomberg Bets on Outsize Fed Cut Gain Steam as CPI Data Backs Doves
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-inflation-data-backs-doves
Bloomberg CPI Report Boosts Market Bets on Larger September Fed Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-cpi-data-backs-doves
Bloomberg Bessent Urges Fed to Lower Rates by 150 Basis Points or More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bessent-says-rates-should-likely-be-150-175-basis-points-lower
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This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership
You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
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The macro situation is worse this summer compared to last summer, so where's Japan's carry trade? If the July 2024 jobs report provoked a violent financial backlash, you'd think the July 2025 version would have, too. The fact it didn't points to several key developments, important warnings from JPY and JGBs.
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This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
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Both McDonald's and Wendy's reported this past week that more Americans are skipping breakfast, not for some health fad but increasingly harsh economic circumstances. That view was further corroborated by the Fed which showed credit card usage fell again for the second straight time, a critical cyclical signal confirming the swing in the consumer economy. So, another Fed official tilts toward rate cuts.
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Bloomberg Fast-Food Breakfast Sales Fade as Diners Eat at Home, Skip Meals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/fast-food-breakfast-sales-fade-as-diners-eat-at-home-skip-meals
Reuters Fed's Musalem: There are risks now to both the inflation and jobs goals
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-musalem-there-are-risks-now-both-inflation-jobs-goals-2025-08-08/
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This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership
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The July jobs report has sparked an overdue reexamination of a bunch of "truths" everyone has simply take for granted: inflation is the biggest risk, bonds are being rejected because of debt, etc. Goldman Sachs finally decided to check that actual yield curve and was utterly shocked to find zero interest rates all over it.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Era
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-era
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This had never happened before, an unprecedented vote for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Despite it, the Pringles can remains undeterred since this is what rate cutting cycles are. The destination remains the same and another drop in employment in the UK as well as France further proves it.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out!
Everything continues to point directly toward much lower rates, including what is setting up to be a repeat of last summer. As Steve and I said a few days ago in the wake of the unambiguously bad jobs report, watch the market and the Fed speakers this week. It's been only two days and they're doing just what we thought they would, putting the FOMC back on the road swaps paved for a fifty in September.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters Exclusive: Fed's Daly says time is nearing for rate cuts, may need more than two
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-daly-says-time-is-nearing-rate-cuts-may-need-more-than-two-2025-08-04/
Dow Jones Kashkari leans toward rate cut as concerns about an economic slowdown grow at the Fed
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250806162/kashkari-leans-toward-rate-cut-as-concerns-about-an-economic-slowdown-grow-at-the-fed
Bloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Says Rate Cut May Be Appropriate in Near Term
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-term
Bloomberg Bets on Fed Rate Cuts Are Sweeping Through US Bond Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/bets-on-fed-rate-cuts-are-sweeping-through-the-us-bond-market
Bloomberg Trump Says He Will Decide on Fed Governor Before End of the Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/trump-says-he-will-decide-on-fed-governor-before-end-of-the-week
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.
Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.
Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.
The Federal Reserve reported a record increase in student loan delinquencies to go with high rates of souring household loans in credit cards and auto lending. The distress is another confirmation of macro deterioration starting with jobs and incomes. And that's just what the latest major economic release on US services showed today -- another alarming drop for employment.
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Huge moves at the front part of the interest rate curve. Bills did something we haven't seen since April. Meanwhile, forward rates reacted to Friday's payroll numbers with crisis-level hedging and then held those prices today. Why? Simple: payrolls were the last of it.
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Bloomberg Job Market Healthy Despite ‘Disappointing’ Report, Fed’s Hammack Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/fed-s-hammack-says-job-market-healthy-despite-disappointing-data
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With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership
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After a crazy week with everything else going on, copper's historic plunge almost flew under everyone's radar. But now with copper prices getting beyond tariff distortions, settling back in to the fundamentals revealed a shocking development - one that absolutely fits with everything else for the week, especially the payroll disaster.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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The dollar is surging again. And while it's primary the euro taking the other side, just as importantly, if not more importantly, currencies like the rupee are tanking worse. INR hit another record low and that along with the euro's sharp reverse is a canary singing in the eurodollar coalmine...perhaps gasping.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Housing prices slid even farther in May, echoing previous data which has shown material weakness all across US real estate markets. The source of this downturn in housing isn't interest rates whatsoever. The rest of the days data showed instead where this is really coming from, starting with some truly grim results where it counts the most: hiring.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US Housing Market Posts Worst Spring Selling Season in 13 Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/us-real-estate-market-high-prices-mortgage-rates-hamper-spring-home-selling
Bloomberg US Job Openings Fall to 7.44 Million After Back-to-Back Jumps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/us-job-openings-fall-to-7-44-million-after-back-to-back-jumps
Bloomberg Even Top Earners Are Falling Behind on Credit Card and Car Payments
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/credit-cards-car-loans-see-defaults-from-high-earners-in-hit-to-economy
Conference Board Consumer Confidence July 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
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The supply glut was never canceled. Almost everyone and every part of the oil market remains convinced it is happening, the potential weighing on prices and movements even if occasionally geopolitics gains control over short run periods. Important macro updates from Ireland to India further prove why the glut isn't being led by global supply. And if it wasn't enough sharp declines in US usage help clear it up even more.
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Total Energies Q2 Report
https://totalenergies.com/system/files/documents/totalenergies_2Q25-results-press-release_2025_en.pdf
Bloomberg Oil Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fears
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-27/oil-prices-caught-between-a-70-summer-and-growing-surplus-fears
Bloomberg Ireland’s Economy Just Shrank for the First Time Since 2023
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/ireland-s-economy-just-shrank-for-the-first-time-since-2023
Bloomberg India Warns of Trade Risks Amid Trump Tariffs, Global Slowdown
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/india-warns-of-trade-risks-amid-trump-tariffs-global-slowdown
Reuters China's industrial profits fall further in June
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-industrial-profits-fall-further-june-2025-07-27/
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The JGB curve isn't behaving the way it "should", nor is that behavior universal to the entire curve. Not only that, similar patterns are playing out in US$ forward markets like term SOFR futures. Each of these curves are pricing therefore predicting the same general set of future outcomes, and, wildly enough, enormous difficulties in figuring out how and when to get there because of the same reason.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Assuming the economy continues its downturn as all the major markets are pricing, what would that look like and what should we be looking for? That leads into the question of how deflationary money becomes a deflationary or depression economy in the first place. That means we need to examine economic mechanisms.
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June housing data is in...and it is looking worse for real estate in the US. The Florida market is leading the way. Everyone is blaming "historically high rates" for the growing bust. Not only is that demonstrably false, the real reason has broad implications for interest rates and a lot more.
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NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.7% Decrease in June
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-7-decrease-in-june
Newsweek Map Shows Where Florida House Prices Are Dropping Fastest
https://www.newsweek.com/map-where-florida-house-prices-dropping-fastest-2099013
Newsweek Florida Housing Market Doing Something 'Unusual' in Multiple Cities
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-doing-something-unusual-multiple-cities-2094174
WUSF 'Nothing's falling off the cliff': A look into Florida's real estate market, slowdown of home sales
https://www.wusf.org/the-florida-roundup/2025-06-16/a-look-into-florida-real-estate-market
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The ECB's latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) adds more evidence to the behavior we've already been chronicling from among Europe's and the world's financial institutions. They are increasingly negative on especially consumers. We know what that means, too: jobs.
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ECB Second Quarter 2025 Bank Lending Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250722~17414c3656.en.html
World Bank Global Economy Set for Weakest Run Since 2008 Outside of Recessions
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/10/global-economic-prospects-june-2025-press-release
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There are reports HK bankers are already informally discussing how to structure a "bad bank." Earlier today, other reports said monetary authorities in Hong Kong were circulating the "crisis letter." The situation has taken a turn for the serious, a warning to the rest of the world because what HK is trying desperately to come to grips with is the same major problem as everyone else has, where the bubbles and now busts came from in the first place.
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HKMA's "Crisis Letter"
https://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/reference-materials/banking/fa03.pdf
Bloomberg Hong Kong Regulators Revive Crisis Playbook to Rescue Landlords
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-22/hong-kong-regulators-revive-crisis-playbook-to-rescue-landlords
Bloomberg Hong Kong’s $25 Billion Pile of Soured Debt Spurs Talks to Form ‘Bad Bank’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/hong-kong-s-25-billion-debt-woe-sparks-talks-on-bad-bank
Fitch Lower HIBOR May Not Fully Address Hong Kong Banks’ Asset Quality Pressure
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/lower-hibor-may-not-fully-address-hong-kong-banks-asset-quality-pressure-19-05-2025
HIBOR rates
https://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hibor
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